Lincoln's Grave Warning Realized

Eight Principles of Uncivilization

by Paul Kingsnorth and Dougald Hine

‘We must unhumanise our views a little, and become conﬁdent
As the rock and ocean that we were made from.’

We live in a time of social, economic and ecological unravelling. All around us are signs that our whole way of living is already passing into history. We will face this reality honestly and learn how to live with it.

We reject the faith which holds that the converging crises of our times can be reduced to a set of‘problems’ in need of technological or political ‘solutions’.

We believe that the roots of these crises lie in the stories we have been telling ourselves. We intend to challenge the stories which underpin our civilisation: the myth of progress, the myth of human centrality, and the myth of our separation from ‘nature’. These myths are more dangerous for the fact that we have forgotten they are myths.

We will reassert the role of story-telling as more than mere entertainment. It is through stories that we weave reality.

Humans are not the point and purpose of the planet. Our art will begin with the attempt to step outside the human bubble. By careful attention, we will reengage with the non-human world.

We will celebrate writing and art which is grounded in a sense of place and of time. Our literature has been dominated for too long by those who inhabit the cosmopolitan citadels.

We will not lose ourselves in the elaboration of theories or ideologies. Our words will be elemental. We write with dirt under our ﬁngernails.

The end of the world as we know it is not the end of the world full stop. Together, we will ﬁnd the hope beyond hope, the paths which lead to the unknown world ahead of us.

The Dark Mountain Manifesto

(excerpt)
Walking on lava

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilisation
Ralph Waldo Emerson

Those who witness extreme social collapse at first hand seldom describe any deep revelation about the truths of human existence. What they do mention, if asked, is their surprise at how easy it is to die.

The pattern of ordinary life, in which so much stays the same from one day to the next, disguises the fragility of its fabric. How many of our activities are made possible by the impression of stability that pattern gives? So long as it repeats, or varies steadily enough, we are able to plan for tomorrow as if all the things we rely on and don’t think about too carefully will still be there. When the pattern is broken, by civil war or natural disaster or the smaller-scale tragedies that tear at its fabric, many of those activities become impossible or meaningless, while simply meeting needs we once took for granted may occupy much of our lives.

What war correspondents and relief workers report is not only the fragility of the fabric, but the speed with which it can unravel. As we write this, no one can say with certainty where the unravelling of the financial and commercial fabric of our economies will end. Meanwhile, beyond the cities, unchecked industrial exploitation frays the material basis of life in many parts of the world, and pulls at the ecological systems which sustain it.

Precarious as this moment may be, however, an awareness of the fragility of what we call civilisation is nothing new.

‘Few men realise,’ wrote Joseph Conrad in 1896, ‘that their life, the very essence of their character, their capabilities and their audacities, are only the expression of their belief in the safety of their surroundings.’ Conrad’s writings exposed the civilisation exported by European imperialists to be little more than a comforting illusion, not only in the dark, unconquerable heart of Africa, but in the whited sepulchres of their capital cities. The inhabitants of that civilisation believed ‘blindly in the irresistible force of its institutions and its morals, in the power of its police and of its opinion,’ but their confidence could be maintained only by the seeming solidity of the crowd of like-minded believers surrounding them. Outside the walls, the wild remained as close to the surface as blood under skin, but the city-dweller was no longer equipped to face it directly.

The remainder of the essay can be read online: Dark Mountain manifesto.

Paul is the author of One No, Many Yeses and Real England. He was deputy editor of The Ecologist between 1999 and 2001. His first poetry collection, Kidland, is forthcoming from Salmon Poetry. His website is www.paulkingsnorth.net

Dougald writes the blog Changing the World (and other excuses for not getting a proper job). He is a former BBC journalist and has written for and edited various online and offline magazines. His website is www.dougald.co.uk

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The "Eight principles of uncivilisation" are expanded in the Dark Mountain manifesto (also available as PDF or purchased as a limited-edition, hand-stitched pamphlet.

See the site for the blog and information about their upcoming festival May 28-30.

Several Energy Bulletin contributors are on their Blogroll, including John Michael Greer, Sharon Astyk, Rob Hopkins and Dmitry Orlov. Also mentioned are Wendell Berry and Ivan Illich.

George Monbiot recently wrote a column in the Guardian about Dark Mountain Project: I share their despair, but I'm not quite ready to climb the Dark Mountain.

On Common Dreams, Robert C. Koehler wrote a related piece: Dark Green.

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Original article available here
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Our American Objectives

"Our national goals must be to rejuvenate the domestic economy; transfer the economic basis of our nation from consumptive to productive; recapitalize education and the technologies industries; achieve complete energy independence; move towards renewable energy sources;
restore public confidence in the government's ability to undertake large national infrastructure projects, and re-assert its right to set goals and policies to ensure those projects proceed smoothly; define the overarching standards for a reconstructed America including a federal review of the building and planning codes now in use, and probably the writing of new mandates that set out 21st-century standards and priorities for energy use, urban and transportation planning, and environmental design, which once put into law and accepted into general use, will be very difficult to change; commit funding for a massive 10- or 20-year program that will upgrade or replace failing components of America's infrastructure as the nation is broke (as it was in FDR's day) and this kind of spending needs to be seen as the long-term investment in our economic future that it is; restore a fair, honest, broad-based system of public contracting that will put large numbers of Americans to work on these new projects (and write the new rules in a way that ensures that the firms doing the most innovative work don't have to compete with unfair behemoth corporations like Halliburton and Lockheed for the lion's share of the funding) so that once there is a healthy, competitive construction industry that knows how to build sustainable projects—and is relying on the government to keep it in business—we will get a political constituency that will fight to ensure that the rebuilding will continue for the next several decades, regardless of what political party is in power; use the forces of globalization and information to strengthen and expand existing democratic alliances and created new ones; employ these alliances to destroy terrorist networks and establish new international security structures; lead, through our historic principles, on international cooperative efforts in spreading economic opportunity and democratic liberties, nation building, counter-prolification, and optimum environmental protection and safeguards; and cherish, honor, and protect our history and traditions of liberty and freedoms domestically particularly with respect to the Bill of Rights."

"The renewed social contract for America with its middle class and poor must:

Raise the minimum wage still higher and on a regular basis. It has fallen far behind increases in inflation since the 1970s, and that affects higher level wages as well.
Encourage living-wage programs by local governments. Governments can demand that their contractors and suppliers pay well above the minimum wage. There is substantial evidence that this does not result in an undue loss of jobs.
Enforce the labor laws vigilantly. Minimum-wage and maximum-hour laws are violated to a stunning degree. American workers shouldn't be forced by their employers to understate the number of hours worked or be locked in the warehouse so they can't leave on time. Workers often make only $2 and $3 an hour.
Unions are not seeking a free pass to organize secretly when they advocate for open check-offs on cards to approve of a union vote. They are seeking to organize without persistent and often illegal management interference. Penalties for illegally deterring such organizing are so light, it makes little sense for management not to pursue strategies to stop organizing even at the cost of prosecution.
Request that trading partners develop serious environmental standards and worker-protection laws. This is good for them, bringing a progressive revolution and a robust domestic market to their countries. It is good for America, which will be able to compete on a more level playing field.
Demand that the president, governors and mayors speak up about unconscionable executive salaries and low wages. The influence from the top cannot be underestimated. A president who looks the other way sends a strong signal to business. A president who demands responsible treatment of workers will get a response. Business does not like such attention.
These measures should be accompanied by serious investment in modernized infrastructure and energy alternatives, which can create millions of domestic jobs that pay good salaries. It should also be accompanied by a policy that supports a lower dollar -- contrary to Rubinomics -- in order to stimulate manufacturing exports again. Accomplishing this may require a new system of semi-fixed currencies across the globe. The unabashed high-dollar policy of the past twenty years has led to imbalances around the world that have contributed fundamentally to US overindebtedness.
And finally, the nation needs more balance on the part of the Federal Reserve between subduing inflation and creating jobs. Americans can live with inflation above 2 percent a year. There is no academic evidence to support a 2 percent annual target, although the Fed has made this its informal target."

The Continuing Case for The Second Bill of Rights for All American Citzens

...from Michael Lind on Salon.com on 11 January 2010 ....

The Case for Economic Rights

FDR said it and it holds 66 years later: There are benefits and opportunities every American should expect to enjoy

Three score and six years ago, the greatest president of the 20th century gave one of his greatest speeches. On Jan. 11, 1944, in a State of the Union address that deserves to be ranked with Lincoln's "Gettysburg Address" and King's "I Have a Dream" speech, President Franklin D. Roosevelt called for recognition of a "Second Bill of Rights." According to FDR:

"This Republic had its beginning, and grew to its present strength, under the protection of certain inalienable political rights -- among them the right of free speech, free press, free worship, trial by jury, freedom from unreasonable searches and seizures. They were our rights to life and liberty. As our nation has grown in size and stature, however -- as our industrial economy expanded -- these political rights proved inadequate to assure us equality in the pursuit of happiness."

Roosevelt did not argue that economic rights had superseded basic, old-fashioned political and civil rights. The argument of authoritarians and totalitarians that economic rights are more important than non-economic liberty was abhorrent to him. Instead, with the examples of the fascist and communist regimes of his time in mind, he argued that the purpose of economic rights was to support and reinforce, not replace, civil and political liberties:

"We have come to a clear realization of the fact that true individual freedom cannot exist without economic security and independence. 'Necessitous men are not free men.' People who are hungry and out of a job are the stuff of which dictatorships are made.

In our day these economic truths have become accepted as self-evident. We have accepted, so to speak, a second Bill of Rights under which a new basis of security and prosperity can be established for all -- regardless of station, race, or creed."

President Roosevelt was not promoting economic rights that were necessarily enforceable in court, but rather economic benefits and opportunities that every American should expect to enjoy by virtue of citizenship in our democratic republic. Many of the rights he identified have been secured by programs with bipartisan support. These include:

"the right to a good education" (the G.I. Bill, student loans, Pell Grants, Head Start, federal aid to K-12 schools) and

"the right of every family to a decent home" (federally subsidized home loans and tax breaks for home ownership). But even before the global economic crisis, the U.S. fell short when it came to full employment --

"the right to a useful and remunerative job in the industries or shops or farms or mines of the nation"

-- and a living wage --

"the right to earn enough to provide adequate food and clothing and recreation."

Roosevelt's vision was controversial at the time and is contested today. When it comes to providing a safety net for Americans, there are three distinct paradigms, which I would describe as economic citizenship, welfare corporatism and faith-based charity.

Supporters of faith-based charity among "theoconservatives" such as Marvin Olasky argue that modern social insurance like Social Security and Medicare was a mistake. The medieval British and colonial American systems of relying on religious institutions to care for the sick and poor should have been continued and built upon, with government subsidies to "faith-based institutions."

The secular business-class right, however, has shown little interest in faith-based charity, perhaps because it is difficult for rent-seeking bankers, brokers and other private sector actors to extract huge amounts of money from tax-exempt church hospitals and church soup lines. The right's preferred alternative to the progressive vision of economic citizenship is what I call "welfare corporatism." Whereas economic citizenship views protection against sickness, unemployment and old age as entitlements of citizens in a democratic republic, welfare corporatism treats these necessities of life as commodities like groceries or appliances, to be purchased in a market by people who are thought of as consumers, not citizens.

Let's contrast ideal versions of the two approaches. In the ideal America of economic citizenship, there would be a single, universal, integrated, lifelong system of economic security including

single-payer healthcare,

Social Security, unemployment payments and

family leave

paid for by a single contributory payroll tax (which could be made progressive in various ways or reduced by combination with other revenue streams). Funding for all programs would be entirely nationalized, although states could play a role in administration. There would still be supplementary private markets in health and retirement products and services for the affluent, but most middle-class Americans would continue to rely primarily on the simple, user-friendly public system of economic security. As Steven Attewell points out, the Social Security Act of 1935 was intended not merely to provide public pensions for the elderly but to establish a framework for a comprehensive system of social insurance corresponding to President Roosevelt's "right to adequate protection from the economic fears of old age, sickness, accident, and unemployment." Attewell writes: "We need to go back to the original drawing board -- the Social Security Act of 1935 -- to finish the job it began and create a truly universal and comprehensive social welfare state."

In the utopia of welfare corporatism, today's public benefits -- Social Security, Medicare, unemployment insurance and, in a few states, public family leave programs -- would be abolished and replaced by harebrained schemes dreamed up by libertarian ideologues at corporate-funded think tanks like the Cato Institute and the Heritage Foundation. Tax subsidies would be funneled to insurance companies, brokers and banks. Social Security would be replaced by a bewildering miscellany of tax-favored personal savings accounts. Medicare would be replaced by a dog's breakfast of tax subsidies for purchasing health insurance and personal medical savings accounts. Unemployment insurance would give way to yet another Rube Goldberg scheme of tax-favored unemployment insurance accounts. As for family leave -- well, if you're not wealthy enough to pay out of pocket for a nanny for your child or a nurse for your parent, you're out of luck.

The strongest case for economic citizenship instead of welfare corporatism is economic. Economic citizenship is more efficient and cheaper in the long run, because the government need only meet costs, while subsidized private providers must make a profit. The Democratic and Republican supporters of welfare corporatism justify their system of massive subsidies for for-profit healthcare and retirement security with the claim that market competition will keep down prices. If only that were true. Competitive markets are probably impossible to create, in the highly regulated insurance sector and the highly concentrated financial sector that sells private retirement goods and services.

It follows that a policy of subsidizing oligopolies and monopolies, via government subsidies to consumers, in the absence of government-imposed price controls, is a recipe for cost inflation, as the providers jack up their prices, sending the consumers back to Congress to demand even more public subsidies. By its very nature, welfare corporatism funnels public resources, in the form of tax breaks, to rent-seeking, predatory firms in the FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) sector, with ever-swelling dead-weight costs on the economy. Welfare corporatism equals corporate welfare.

Unfortunately, most progressives have failed to make the case against the libertarian myth of market competition in the provision of social insurance. All too many, including President Obama, have made the too-clever-by-half argument that the public option would keep prices down by means of market competition. In other words, the center-left has borrowed a bogus argument about competition from right-wing free-market fundamentalism in order to defend a token public program that ceased to be of any interest once Obama and the Democrats in Congress ruled that Americans with employer-provided insurance would be banned from joining the public option. When you're reduced to parroting the opposition's erroneous theories, in the process of begging for a slight modification of the opposition's pet program, you clearly don't have the nerve or the patience to play the long game in politics.

In a response to one of my earlier columns, Will Marshall wonders how I can dare to criticize the legacy of Bill Clinton, a Democrat. My reasons should be clear by now. I am not a partisan Democratic operative focused on winning the next election. I am interested only in strengthening the republic through a gradual expansion of economic citizenship in the tradition of Franklin Roosevelt's Second Bill of Rights. If this means criticizing Democratic presidents who expand welfare corporatism instead of economic citizenship, so be it.

As part of his opportunistic policy of triangulation between his own party and the opposition, Bill Clinton joined the Republicans in a three-pronged assault on New Deal economic citizenship. He and the Republican Congress abolished Aid to Families With Dependent Children, a flawed and unpopular means-tested program for the poor that should have been reformed as a national program rather than turned over to the states as the neo-Confederate right insisted. Instead of piecemeal expansion of single-payer healthcare, Clinton pushed a version of employer-based welfare corporatism plus subsidies that came out of the playbook of moderate Republicans like Nixon. And we now know that Clinton secretly agreed to support Newt Gingrich's drive to partly privatize Social Security, in return for dedicating the federal government's imaginary future surpluses to what was left of Social Security. In 2005, Will Marshall argued in favor of private accounts, on the grounds that they would soften up Americans for cuts in Social Security: "If today's workers start saving and investing more in stocks and bonds, the returns they earn would allow us to trim their Social Security benefits later, without reducing their overall standard of living."

While George W. Bush pushed for partial privatization of Social Security, he failed because of massive public opposition. But Bush and the Republican majority in Congress succeeded in enacting the Social Security drug benefit, a flawed but genuine expansion of economic citizenship. Clinton is the only president to have successfully supported the destruction of a New Deal entitlement, while Bush presided over the greatest expansion of the Rooseveltian entitlement system since Lyndon Johnson passed Medicare.

For his part, Barack Obama, like Bill Clinton, rejected single-payer in favor of a moderately conservative welfare corporatist approach to healthcare reform. In contrast, Obama's proposal for student loan reform, an idea discussed in the Clinton years, would move in the right direction, away from welfare corporatism and toward economic citizenship, by replacing subsidized third-party lenders with direct government provision of student loans to needy college students.

Parties are coalitions of interest groups, they are not public philosophies, and presidents, great and minor, are and have to be opportunists. In contrast, reformers only have a chance of succeeding if they stick to their basic principles and keep their eyes on the prize. Progressives should support any politician, Democrat or Republican, who expands economic citizenship to the detriment of welfare corporatism, and they should oppose any politician, Democrat or Republican, who expands welfare corporatism to the detriment of economic citizenship.

Any more questions?

30 December 2008

The Outlook for 2009

Here is one educated and enlightened observer's view about the course of events on a number of topics, primarily economic, for the upcoming year of 2009.

1) Unemployment will rise rather steadily through the year to an "official" government announced rate around 9.5 % to 10.8 %, but the number may decline very slightly by December of '09 if the stimulation legislation has any effect. The December '08 numbers that will be released in the coming days will show job losses similar to November '08 but more than October '08. But the February numbers will be utterly horrifying as between at least .5 and 1.5 million people will lose their jobs in January '09, starting a trend which will carry on for at least several months and probably beyond. Of course the real unemployment number will be between 17 and 20 %, perhaps more later by later in the summer and autumn, if all the citizens that have quit looking for work are included as well as those citizens who are working only part time (like me at least hopefully) because they cannot find any fulltime work. The number of adults between the ages of 18 and 65 working fulltime will fall below 58 %, probably more.

2) The GDP will decline between .8 % and 3.8 % in each of the four quarters in 2009. Inflation will be minimal and its likely most months of the year will actually show deflation overall and for many goods and services. Demand will continue to be soft at best, and nonexistent virtually for some goods and services. Most nonessential manufacturing will be all but completely shut down.
But an explosion in inflation is likely in the cards as soon as the fourth quarter this year with the massive deficit spending and all other economic dynamics in play.

3) The number of corporations declaring Chapter 7 and 11 bankruptcy will shock many Americans. Some of biggest venerable names in business will go belly up. Among those include General Motors, Chrysler, Sears Roebuck-KMart, Radio Shack, Burger King, and many others. The bloodbath of corporate deaths will be horrifying. Well over 250,000 businesses will cease operations this upcoming year.

4) Housing prices and home values are already down an average of 25 % from their peaks in the last one to two years in most places across the nation and the collapse will continue for all of '09. Expect the decline to reach an average of 33 to 40 % for the most part with exceptions such as Dallas, Denver, Houston, Albuquerque, Salt Lake, and many smaller communities primarily in the heartland and south. Areas where the collapse will even be greater and far uglier will include Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and other sunbelt communities where values will drop from their peaks by 55 to 70 %. The numbers from Rustbelt cities like Cleveland, Dayton, Detroit, and elsewhere will be horrifying. Housing is in a depression already for about 3/4 of the nation and those not in it will be lucky not to join the already unfortunate in '09. Sales of new homes will be all but nonexistent, and existing home sales will struggle with a lack of credit availability, rising unemployment, and a reluctance to lend in an overall declining home values market. The residential and commercial construction sectors will be totally dead in the water, and will have to rely on a rapid implimentation of public construction projects resulting from the upcoming federal stimulus program to avoid a complete collapse.

5) Foreclosures are not declining whatsoever, and will likely increase even further in '09 with rising unemployment and declining home values. There are also a vast number of unconventional mortgages reaching a new much higher payment level which will only add to the numbers. Expect between at least two and four million homes to be foreclosed across the nation in the upcoming year. Rising unemployment will only add to the numbers substantively, as will continuing to mature subprime and discount mortgages already in place.

6) Foreclosures will not be just limited to residential real estate. Commercial and industrial real estate will also see huge increases in foreclosures and defaults in '09, and even properties where commercial tenants are doing okay will be seized and cause additional business failures. The once invincible shopping mall in many communities will become endangered, with some closures likely,

7) At least five to twelve states will require federal dollars at some point in the year in order to continue to make payments for unemployment insurance. Michigan, Ohio, New York, and South Carolina head the list of troubled states in this area. State budgets will be harshly slashed across almost all the nation, with the most profound effects on the poor, elderly, disadvantaged, handicapped, and children. Some state governments like California will have to all but completely shut down for a period of time in '09.

8) Oil prices will be all over the place in '09. Flareups and crises in the Middle East could cause a price spike back to over $100 per barrel, but its more likely the price will hover between $35 and $85 per barrel through the year.

9) The credit crunch shows no sign of abatement, and this is likely to continue into '09 for the most part. Money is still available from small lenders such as credit unions and small local banks. The problem will continue to prove to bedeviling to government and financial officials, as the monies fed to bank will largely just sit unused in most institutions.

10. The major financial indices will continue to drift in a somewhat downward direction through the year. The DJI will float between 6300 and 9800 for the most part. Other indices will be much the same way.

11) Like oil, other commodities will likely be down in both price and production for '09. The one factor that may minimize declines would be continued erratic and unexpected weather. Movement towards researching new alternative cost effective renewable energy sources will stagnate through the year, as well as production and implimentation of said programs.

12) 2009 will be a year where global warming becomes further apparent. The likelihood of a warmer than usual Spring following a somewhat mild winter is more than possible. Summer '09 will be much warmer than usual and increases in areas beset by drought are probable. Record heat waves will be a regular news item across many parts of the nation. There will be a greater number of tornadoes and hurricanes than usual. These same kinds of weather patterns will occur globally. The Arctic Ice Cap will set a record for shrinking to possibly its smallest size ever. Research will show further troubling information concerning glaciers globally, as well as the icecap in Antarctica.

13) Newly inaugurated President Obama will score some legislative successes with the 111th Congress, but the extent of the victories will not be as great as Progressives and Liberals desire. Tax increases for the wealthy and corporations will not occur in '09, and a federal health care plan that is enacted will leave much to be desired. Labor reform legislation will not be as satisfactory as needed.

14) Information will emerge about likely timetables for mass fauna and flora extinction in ecosystems globally. The end is near for several noteworthy species on continents across the globe, and optimism for conservation and preservation efforts to be successful will wane with continued climate change and economic upheaval.

15) While Barrack Obama hoped to focus much of his new administration's thrust and energy on domestic issues and problems, he will find his resources and focus increasingly focused on foreign affairs and international matters. These powerful distracting circumstances will result in a decline in the new president's popularity and effectiveness by years end.

16) The dollar will drift down in value to other currencies, primarily because of the exploding US federal deficit. The Obama administration will propose around a $900 billion stimulus package, but when Congress is through adding on its pork, the numbers will exceed $1.3 trillion dollars. The amount of spending by both the federal government and the Federal Reserve in particular will stagger the imagination. The decline in the value of the dollar may result in artificially increasing stock prices and their indices, as well as keeping commodities such as oil overpriced even in an environment of lower demand.

17) It is possible there will be a slight improvement in some sectors by next October or November, but a recovery back to the positive numbers that existed in late 2007 is not going to occur until well into 2010, or more likely, 2011.

All in all, 2009 is looking to be a worse year than '08, mainly due to all the problems that were created in past years and have been festering, waiting for right time to explode. Very few citizens will be able to avoid having mud land on them to at least a small extent, giving them great pain and increased hardship and tragedy.

*****

Governments Fear Civil Unrest in Ongoing Economic Downturn as Military Begins Preparations

Increasingly, various elements in all levels of government are growing concerned about the possible likelihood of significant civil unrest as the ongoing economic downturn continues to only worsen. With some economists and observers now predicting official unemployment numbers to near 10 % nationally, with unofficial numbers likely to be nearing 25 % on a local level which nears the numbers during the worst of The Great Depression, steps are being taken to have military resources at avail for local and state law enforcement agencies should trouble grow to a point where it grows beyond their scope and own resources. The difference would be that these military forces would not be just of the National Guard or Reserve variety, but also active duty military personnel from all five branches of the armed forces. God help us, if it gets to this point, this nation and its long history and heritages of following laws and the Constitution would be seriously imperiled and a suspension of all civil liberties and citizen rights could eventuate in short order.

Perhaps the seemingly outrageous predictions of this Russian academician are not so far fetched after all...

http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_11326744

http://www.guerrillanews.com/headlines/19179/U_S_Military_Preparing_for_Civil_Unrest_and_Domestic_Revolt

http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2008/12/15/daily34.html

*****

29 December 2008

The Fantasy of Oil Shale Recovery and Use

I have always been somewhat skeptical of the oil shale story and all the riches, new resources, and employment such a new industry would provide to western Colorado, eastern Utah, and southwestern Wyoming. If oil shale were easy and cost effective to recover, it would have already been accomplished to a significant extent. Clearly the costs from an environmental perspective as well from a cost perspective make it seem to me that it is all but certain we will never see this alternative fossil fuel source ever developed beyond a few pilot projects. The need for huge unimaginable sums of the most essential and scarce resource of water in the Rocky Mountain West as well as a quantity of electricity that is impossible to create makes the dreams by some of harvesting this oil resource a pipe dream and fantasy. It seems certain that developing resources such as wind and solar energy are much less expensive and environmentally intelligent than spending billions of dollars and wasting trillions of gallons of water to mine a rock from beneath the surface of the Earth in this region of the planet that will only add significantly to the Global Warming crisis that will beset citizens and society sooner and harsher than is being told to mankind by authorities, officials, and scientists. The article in the Los Angeles Times in the link below explains this further.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-oil-shale28-2008dec28,0,4185226.story

*****

26 December 2008

Infrastructure Stimulus is a Sure Answer to American Economic Malaise

...From Tom Lewis in an opinion column in the Friday 26 December edition of the Los Angeles Times:

Eisenhower's Roads to Prosperity

The story of how and why the country's interstate system was created holds lessons for today.

By Tom Lewis
December 26, 2008

In his Dec. 6 radio address, President-elect Barack Obama vowed to "create millions of jobs by making the single largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s." The story of President Eisenhower's decision in 1956 to create the interstate highway system, how it was funded and its effects on American commerce and culture holds lessons that the new president and the country would do well to heed.

Eisenhower was the first Republican to occupy the White House after Herbert Hoover, who in the 1950s still wore a mantle of shame for his role in the market crash of 1929 and its aftermath. Eisenhower had an almost pathological, but healthy, fear that he might be blamed for allowing the nation to fall into another depression. When a mild recession early in his first term pushed the unemployment rate above 5%, Eisenhower told his Cabinet that "we could be in terrible trouble" and asked for solutions.

The highwaymen at the Bureau of Public Roads (the precursor of today's Federal Highway Administration) heeded the call. They reported that each federal dollar invested in construction generated close to one half-hour of employment. Like a stone cast into a pond, a mile of modern, four-lane, limited-access highway would create waves that would ripple through the economy. Workers across America, not just those who built the roadways, would benefit -- in cement and steel plants (50 tons of concrete and 20 tons of reinforcing steel go into each mile), in paint and sign manufacturers and in heavy equipment factories and oil refineries.

Another impetus for the massive project was that the president knew firsthand the need for better roads. As a young lieutenant colonel, he traveled in 1919 over the Lincoln Highway in the Army's first transcontinental caravan, a journey that lasted 62 days and sometimes required oxen to pull the trucks through mires of mud. Eisenhower called it a trip "through darkest America in truck and tank." A quarter of a century later, a ride over Adolf Hitler's autobahn showed the general how highways might serve the defense of a nation.

Eisenhower realized that he could not fail with highways. Americans wanted more roads for their postwar cars. Construction would prime the economic pump (1950s language for "economic stimulus package") and help secure the nation's future. He signed a small highway bill in 1954 and, on June 29, 1956, the $25-billion Federal-Aid Highway Act to build a 42,000-mile interstate highway system by 1972. Ultimately the cost would escalate to more than $130 billion, and workers would not finish the roads until 1993, with the Century Freeway in Los Angeles County as the last link.

Eisenhower wasn't afraid to create a huge public works program, and unlike today's presidents, he wasn't afraid of taxes. (He even vetoed his Republican Congress' repeal of a 20% federal admission tax on motion pictures.) The 1956 highway bill levied a tax of 3 cents on each gallon of fuel -- equal to 24 cents today. The revenue went into a dedicated highway trust fund. Though it wasn't enough to support the entire program, it was a start. And the tax proved to be a Mobius strip of money. Each gallon of fuel pumped helped to create more highways, which enabled more cars to drive more miles -- and use more gas, which generated yet more money for the trust fund.

Eisenhower's interstates also changed the face of the nation. In the 19th century, each of the stops on the railroad as it pushed westward became an opportunity for a community and commerce to develop. Today, 16,000 interchanges on the interstates have had a similar effect on our economy and our lives. Eisenhower's interstates are an essential part of our culture.

The highway system, though, also would have deleterious effects, which Eisenhower probably couldn't have foreseen. He didn't know, for instance, that rapacious planners like New York's Robert Moses would plunder urban neighborhoods and displace thousands to lay down roads. He didn't foresee that the interstates would contribute in large measure to the United States' dependence on automobiles and foreign oil.

In 1956, Eisenhower likely didn't fully realize that he was creating not just a public works program but an economic and social blueprint for the next 50 years. Now, along with every other aspect of our infrastructure, the interstates are crumbling. Irresponsible legislators rail against the current federal highway tax of 18.4 cents a gallon -- far less in today's prices than Eisenhower's 3 cents. Seduced by easy money, governors consider leasing parts of the highway system to foreign companies.

So the lessons for Obama are clear: Don't be afraid to propose bold -- and often expensive -- programs that improve the nation's infrastructure and peoples' lives, and don't be afraid to pay for them with taxes.

It is said the 44th president is taking office at a Lincoln moment and a Roosevelt moment. True enough, but it can be an Eisenhower moment as well.

Tom Lewis is the author of several books, including "Divided Highways," a history of the interstate highway system that was made into a PBS documentary. He teaches English at Skidmore College.

*

A superb historical explanation for the value of a national investment in infrastructure and the great returns on such a program, one that is reportedly under consideration for proposal by the incoming Obama Administration.

*****

22 December 2008

Latest Census Numbers Show Continued Growth Across Mountain West

The US Census Bureau released its latest population estimates for each of the states as of 1 July 2oo8 on Monday 22 December, and the numbers continue to show population increases for states in the Mountain West Region, as well for nearly all of the states in the union. Population increases for each of the eight states in the region range from just under 39,000 for the least populated state, Wyoming, to nearly 1.375 million for the most populated state, Arizona. Percentage increases for growth in this decade ranged from 7.2 % for Montana to 30.1 % for Nevada.

The raw numbers for population growth are as follows:

____pop 7/1/8___increase from 4/1/00
AZ: 6,500,180........up 1,369,573
CO: 4,939,456.........up... 637,441
ID: 1,523,816..........up... 229,861
MT:....967,440..........up.... 65,250
NV: 2,600,167.........up.... 601,910
NM: 1.984,356.........up.... 165,315
UT: 2,736,424.........up.... 503,220
WY:... 532,668.........up....... 38,886

And here are the percentage increases of for each of the eight states in the Mountain states region from 1 April '00 to 1 July '08:

AZ:....26.7 [2nd nationally]
CO:....14.8 [7th nationally]
ID:.....17.8 [5th nationally]
MT:.....7.2 [20th nationally]
NV:....30.1[1st nationally]
NM:.....9.1 [17th nationally]
UT:....22.5 [3rd nationally]
WY......7.9 [19th nationally]

Of course the biggest implications from these numbers are how they will result in changes to each state's congressional representation that will be reapportioned following the official 2010 census. Based on these latest numbers it would seem at this point the region will gain four new US House seats, which will increase the representation to 32, up 12.5 % from the current regional representation of 28. The seats would increase for Nevada (1), Utah (1), and Arizona (2). In addition Oregon would gain one seat and Texas would see its congressional representation increased by four, giving the Lone Star State a total of 36. Other states projected to have gains would be Georgia (1), South Carolina (1), North Carolina (1), and Florida (1-2).

States that are currently projected to lose congressional representation for the election in 2012 are California (1), Louisiana (1), Missouri (1), Iowa (1), Minnesota (1), Michigan (1), Illinois (1), Ohio (2), Pennsylvania (1), New York (1), Massachusetts (1), and New Jersey (1).

http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2008/12/census-bureau-r.html

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/2008-12-22-census-congress-analysis_N.htm

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/2008-12-22-urah-nevada-census_N.htm

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/census/2008-12-22-census-congress-analysis_N.htm

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/013049.html

http://www.electiondataservices.com/images/File/NR_Appor08wTables.pdf

*****

20 December 2008

Al Franken Closes in on Victory in Minnesota

After weeks of uncertainty and strong contentiousness at times, it is now strongly appears Democratic challenger Al Franken will squeak out a narrow victory and oust Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in a contest for a US Senate seat in Minnesota. Some ballots remain to be counted, but most experts and analysts believe not enough votes will be counted for Coleman to overcome the lead currently established by Franken. Coleman, facing inquiries and investigations by federal and state law enforcement officials over various improprieties already, would be yet another GOP seat to switch over to Democrats in the election, which numbers eight and consists of AK, OR, CO, NM, VA, NH, and NC. This eight seat increase for Democrats puts their numbers in the soon to convene 111th Congress at 57, with one Independent (Lieberman from Connecticut) and one Socialist (Sanders from Vermont) caucusing with the Dems to make their final number at 59. Republicans now stand at 41, the fewest they have had in the Senate since 1980.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/12/with_key_phase_in_recount_now.php

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1208/Franken_expects_to_defeat_Coleman_by_3550_votes.html

*****

17 December 2008

Chrysler All But Dies

The news late today that Chrysler is shutting down all its factories across North America would appear to be the death knell for this once former automotive manufacturing giant. The company, rescued once before in 1979 with a federal loan from the Carter Administration and brought back to health by Lee Iacocca in the early 1980s, has been in a steep decline this decade and now appears at death again. Promises by the Bush junta to bail out Chrysler as well as equally ill GM after legislation failed in the US Senate earlier this month have not come about so far. But now it maybe too late for Chrysler, as the company is totally broke and beset with overwhelming liabilities. General Motors may not be far behind Chrysler in dying the way things are going across the nation as the recession continues to strongly deepen and become more perilously close to becoming a depression.

http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2008/12/chrysler-closing-all-30-plants-for-a-month.html

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122953853010114835.html?mod=testMod

http://www.idahostatesman.com/eyepiece/story/606498.html

*****

16 December 2008

Tuesday 16 December's Links for Information and Enlightenment

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/12/17/700_billion/index.html?source=rss

http://www.yumasun.com/opinion/warming_46450___article.html/planetary_human.html

http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2008/11/the-most-important-number-on-earth.html

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/12/16-9

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/dec/15/endangered-species-121508/?zIndex=22886

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/16/arctic-ice-melt-of-over-t_n_151334.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/15/AR2008121502397.html

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/12/16/electoral_college_killed_auto/

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=6464266&page=1

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/16/news/economy/cpi/?postversion=2008121609

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B84A420081215

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/12/and-now-deflation.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/17/business/economy/17fed.html?_r=1&hp

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hale-stewart/the-feds-new-strategy-the_b_151492.html

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/12/16/stability_is_destabilizing/#more

http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2008/12/an_empire_of_sentimentality.php

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/36141464.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUxWoW_oD:EaDUiacyKUU

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/15/franken-camp-coleman-tryi_n_151140.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/12/norm-coleman-needed-money_n_150484.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-eskow/do-southern-senators-real_b_151505.html

http://www.alternet.org/healthwellness/113112/?page=entire

*****

15 December 2008

Monday 15 December's Links for Information and Enlightenment

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/12/15/india.pakistan.tension/

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/12/12/60minutes/main4666112.shtml

http://www.csmonitor.com/patchworknation/csmstaff/2008/1215/a-bit-of-good-economic-news-%E2%80%93-and-the-troubles-it-may-show-ahead/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/14/AR2008121401282.html?nav=hcmodule

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/12/logic-of-keynes-in-todays-world.html

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081215/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=au-HGD_Ze08

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1216/p01s04-woap.html

http://coloradoindependent.com/17462/would-a-gas-tax-hike-save-detroit

http://www.trib.com/taking_root/

http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2008/12/14/news/local/news04.txt

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/dec/14/george-bush-midnight-regulations

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121300906.html

http://www.progressive.org/mp/demoro121108.html

http://www.worldofbioenergy.com/index.php?do=viewarticle&artid=167

http://energy-environment.webnode.com/news/degraded-grasslands-better-option-for-biofuels/

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081124165132.htm

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-everglades15-2008dec15,0,2481333.story

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_11231957

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/08/business/media/08carr.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&ref=business&adxnnlx=1229187761-SPEH19530wHdXAkmU6ffBQ

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE4BC01020081213

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2008/12/15-2

http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2008/11/the-seven-deadly-deficits.html

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=a_global_new_deal

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081229/kohn?rel=hp_picks

http://www.yesmagazine.org/article.asp?id=3162

http://www.thestar.com/News/GlobalVoices/article/553754

http://www.ajc.com/services/content/printedition/2008/12/14/equaled.html

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20081215_rep_dennis_kucinich_on_his_battle_with_the_banks/

http://buzzflash.com/articles/interviews/137

http://roguecolumnist.typepad.com/rogue_columnist/2008/12/the-real-hole-seattle-is-digging-with-the-viaduct.html#more

http://www.splcenter.org/intel/intelreport/article.jsp?aid=971

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/12/13/national/a032412S59.DTL&feed=rss.news

http://www.bobboblog.org/bobbo-59

http://jamillerrampant.blogspot.com/2008/12/cancer-of-conservatism.html

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-govern15-2008dec15,0,457695,full.story

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-doctors15-2008dec15,0,5736228,full.story

http://www.timesunion.com/ASPStories/storyprint.asp?StoryID=750267

http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/12/15/coleman-asks-court-to-halt-recount-until-process-clear/

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008518325_works15.html

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008522725_apbudgetdeficit.html

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/dec/15/journalists-at-rocky-launch-web-site-in-effort/

http://www.iwantmyrocky.com

http://features.csmonitor.com/gardening/blog-entry/

*****

13 December 2008

The Rapid Ongoing Demise of Newspapers

The Internet and World Wide Web have paid a heavy toll on newspapers, and the largely successful business model followed by print media for over a century is rapidly coming to a full demise. In the last year or so several newspapers have gone defunct, and an increasingly larger number of papers, some that have a strong history and eminence, are seriously imperiled as well. It would not be a stretch to see as many as 30 - 50 newspapers die and cease publishing in 2009. The newspapers in Detroit have announced they will go to a three day a week home delivery schedule instead of the full seven, with only limited editions available at newsstands, stores, and in dispensing machines. It would appear this is a stop-gap approach and doomed to a quick failure. Advertising would be sharply cut in such a delivery plan, which also has to be mean staff cuts and reductions would become essential quickly, creating a perpetuating downward spiral for the publications. A prosperous successful business model for the 21st century for newspapers utilizing the internet is yet to emerge, and one wonders if one does exist. If not, a dismal future awaits publishers, journalists, and readers very soon.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Report-Detroit-papers-likely-apf-13823480.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/13/business/media/13free.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1229284939-5Kufp9AvjWvYA4AHEDVTxQ

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_11222657

*****

Saturday 13 December's Links for Information and Enlightenment

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20081212/1ahouseprices12_cv.art.htm

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aq2JHRpdTeW8&refer=worldwide

http://www.magicvalley.com/articles/2008/12/12/ap-state-id/d950sgjo1.txt

http://www.azdailysun.com/articles/2008/12/12/news/20081212_front_186909.txt

http://www.santafenewmexican.com/SantaFeNorthernNM/Rail-runner-express-A-crowded-commute

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion/389694/hard_times_without_studs?rel=hp_blogs_box

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion/389694/hard_times_without_studs?rel=hp_blogs_box

http://ipsnorthamerica.net/news.php?idnews=1895

http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/analysis/552

http://ccoaler.blogspot.com/2008/12/us-trade-deficit-rises.html

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4636612

http://www.alternet.org/story/109842/?page=entire

http://www.americablog.com/2008/12/olbermann-leaked-gop-memo-suggests-auto.html

http://www.kansascity.com/105/story/928611.html

http://billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/12/13/news/wyoming/21-medicinebow.txt

http://www.idahostatesman.com/newsupdates/story/602797.html

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/24991066/bushs_final_fu

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200812/fallows-chinese-banker

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/12/a-bookstore-stimulus-package/

http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/12/12/study-elephants-in-zoos-live-much-shorter-lives/

http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/12/12/california-jumps-to-front-of-global-warming-fight/

*****

11 December 2008

Thursday 11 December's Links for Enlightenment and Information

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Baby-boomers-face-three-new/story.aspx?guid={905507FA-74B7-4118-A110-378B846FB4E1}&dist=SecMostRead

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/nov/nov08.html

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/nov/national.html#text

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/nov/currentmonth.html

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/nov/novext2008.html

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

http://www.monthlyreview.org/081201foster-magdoff.php

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/12/sports/baseball/12fair.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/theater/11prosky.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/opinion/10friedman.html?em

http://www.newwest.net/topic/article/will_newspaper_failures_cripple_watchdog_journalism/C530/L37/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/10/AR2008121003681.html?hpid=topnews

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=98346

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/10/business/10yield.php

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122894049567595513.html?mod=testMod

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/12/politics-and-economics-of-auto-bailout.html

http://wagelaborer.blogspot.com/2008/12/health-in-america_11.html

http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/12/11/optimism-fading-for-poland-climate-talks/

http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/12/10/environmentalists-send-their-wish-list-to-obama/

http://denver.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2008/12/08/story2.html?b=1228712400^1743511

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/11/whats-the-point-of-bailing-out-the-auto-industry/

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/ross-perot-answers-your-questions/#more-3485

http://www.demos.org/index.cfm

http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/ss/local/104818.php

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.market_gurus.fortune/index.html?ref=patrick.net

http://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2008/12/10/santa-faces-foreclosure-victim-of-subprime-debacle-seeks-christmas-government-bailout/?ref=patrick.net

*****

10 December 2008

Where the Construction Infrastructure Stimulus Should Go in Wyoming

James K. Galbraith's recommendations are much better for a national economic stimulus, but it is all but certain monies will be appropriated by Congress and approved by Barack Obama that directs most funding towards infrastructural improvements, upgrades, and new construction.

This writer's recommendations for use of those federal dollars recommended for dispersal to state governments in early 2009 for transportation projects throughout my current home state of Wyoming:

1) Fully construct the high speed rail line from downtown Casper east and south along the I-25 corridor to the Colorado border with depots in downtown Casper, Eastridge, Glenrock, Douglas, Wheatland, the Horse Creek exit, and downtown Cheyenne. (188 miles)

2) Widening & extensive safety improvements on I-80 between Laramie and Cheyenne, and between Green River and Rock Springs. (52 miles and 20 miles)

3) Construction of a new I-23 Interstate Highway between Rawlins and Casper. (approximately 100 to 110 miles)

4) Improvement to a four lane shouldered medianed interstate quality highway for US Hwy 20-26 between Casper and Riverton, and US Hwy 20-89 between Shoshoni and Thermopolis. (120 miles and 32 miles)

5) Improvement to a four lane shouldered medianed interstate quality highway for Wyoming State Highway 59 between Gillette and Douglas. (115 miles)

6) Improvement to a four lane shouldered and medianed interstate quality highway for Wyoming State Highway 120 between Cody and Thermopolis. ( 85 miles)

7) Complete reconstruction of I-80/I-25 interchange in Cheyenne and connecting highway and roads, interchanges and ramps within 1 - 10 miles to include widening, safety and access improvements and signage. (1 mile to the south, 9 miles to the north, and approximately 5 miles for connecting roads and streets for a total of 16 miles)

8) Preparation of infrastructure and support buildings for re-establishment of the Pioneer rail line from Amtrak from Utah line to Nebraska line, including depot restoration and modernization in Pine Bluffs, Cheyenne, Laramie, Medicine Bow, Walcott, Sinclair, Rawlins, Wamsutter, Rock Springs, Green River, Lyman, and Evanston. (approximately 418 miles)

9) Completion of the beltway loop (Wyoming State Highway 258) in Casper and conversion to a freeway level highway partially encircling Casper from Hwy 20/26 on the northwest side along the west and south sides of the city and connecting to I-25 east of Eastridge. (approximately 9 - 12 miles)

10) Improvement to a four lane shouldered and medianed interstate quality highway for US Hwy 85 from I-25 north of Cheyenne to Torrington. (77 miles)

*****

The Hard Ugly Numbers of The Bailout Thus Far -- and What Awaits Us...

...From Julien Du

nraven's post on Wednesday 10 December in the blog slapstickpolitics:

The Bailout Total: $8.5 trillion

-- Inflation To Come
By Julian Dunraven, J.D., M.P.A.

Honorable Friends:

In prior posts, I have made my disdain for the economic bailouts abundantly clear. Thus, I have not been at all surprised that the bailouts have failed so miserably to solve the financial crisis over these past several weeks of extreme volatility. What has surprised me a bit is the amount of money the government is willing to gamble in a desperate attempt to force the bailouts to work.

“Helicopter” Ben Bernanke, earned his moniker by once promising to drop helicopter loads of money on to a financial crisis if needed. This was the lesson he gleaned from years spent studying the Great Depression of the 1930s. Mr. Bernanke determined that had we simply thrown enough money at it, we could have ended the Great Depression much earlier. The Austrian School would say that he is exactly wrong, but he is now putting his theory to the test in our current financial crisis. As the helicopters continue to swarm, I think it only prudent that we occasionally glance at how much we are spending to test his theory. Jim Puplava, investment advisor and CEO of Puplava Financial Services, Inc., has provided a quick accounting of the helicopter drops and so far:

· For commercial paper, we have allocated $1.8 trillion;

· The Term Auction Facility, which provides negotiated rate for banks to borrow from the FED, has allocated $900 billion;

· Other assets have $606 billion;

· Finance company debt purchases, like the Fannie and Freddie bailouts, have received $600 billion;

· Money Market Facilities have $540 billion;

· The Citigroup bailout cost $291 billion;

· Term Security Lending has $250 billion;

· Term Asset Backed Loan Facilities (TALF), designed to help credit cards and business loans, has $200 billion;

· The bailout for AIG cost us $123 billion;

· Discount Window Borrowings has been allocated $92 billion;

· Commercial Program Number 2, which helps banks buy commercial paper from mutual funds, received $62 billion;

· Discount Window Number 2 has $50 billion;

· The Bear Stearns bailout cost $29 billion;

· Overnight loans have received $10 billion;

· Secondary credit is at $118 billion;

· Federal Deposit Insurance Commitments (FDIC) which guarantees loans, has received $1.4 trillion;

· Guarantees on GE Capital are at $139 billion;

· Citigroup’s second bailout took another $10 billion infusion;

· The Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) we heard so much about has $700 billion;

· The earlier stimulus package this year cost $168 billion;

· Treasury Exchange Stabilization Fund took $50 billion;

· Tax breaks for banks are at $29 billion;

· And Hope for Homeowners devoured $300 billion.

Thus, the total amount we are spending on the bailout so far is $8.5 trillion.

Early next year, we can look forward to another $700 billion bailout directly to the people (which will include even those who do not pay taxes) as promised by Obama and Pelosi. There will also be some form of bailout to the Detroit automakers, and the bailout for the various states is still to come as California has already begun to issue IOUs. For more detailed information, check out Mr. Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour, “The Big Picture” for December 6, 2008.

Currently, our GDP is only $10-13 trillion depending on how generously you want to calculate it. Either way, spending 60-80% of our GDP on bailouts should outrage you. So where is this unimaginably vast amount of money coming from? As I have said before, we are simply printing most of it. As you might imagine, such frantic money printing should massively increase inflation.

This massive increase has not yet hit the money supply as the banks are busy trying to recapitalize and deleverage rather than giving out new loans. We used to call that prudent, but prudence is not what our government wants right now. Many of the above programs have been created to allow the government to bypass the banks, injecting cash directly into the economy in an attempt to spur spending, create new bubbles, and stagger along to the next distortion created crash. If it doesn’t work, we can look forward to a large devaluation of the dollar.

This impending inflation and devaluation should explain why investors like Warren Buffett have gone to equities and totally divested themselves of the dollar. Yet, even faced with this evidence, people are still flocking to treasury bonds despite the abysmally low or even negative returns on them right now. A wiser investor would seek stocks of companies which consistently pay dividends, have increased their dividends, and are likely to continue doing so. The precious metals also continue to look appealing as a hedge against the inflation our inept government is trying to ram down our throats.

With the election behind us, countering the political forces pushing the bailout—and the resulting inflation—has become much more difficult, but remains vitally important. Making our own displeasure with these bailouts known and holding politicians accountable for their actions are the only defenses we have against the continued financial mismanagement coming from our government.

If this scenario eventuates as it likely will, all our gooses are seriously cooked.

*****

Wednesday 10 December's Links for Information and Enlightenment

http://www.vanityfair.com/magazine/2009/01/stiglitz200901?printable=true&currentPage=all

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/unclimatewarmingcoral

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Ten-clues-tell-us-a/story.aspx?guid={46BEE66B-29D6-4799-88F8-C6FBAD94AFAB}&dist=SecMostRead

http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175012/ira_chernus_what_the_president_elect_should_be_reading

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/mountain-west-americas-new-swing-region.html

http://www.newwest.net/city/article/report_shows_widening_wage_gap_in_montana_idaho/C396/L396/

http://www.twincities.com/ci_11180391?IADID=Search-www.twincities.com-www.twincities.com

http://missoulian.com/articles/2008/12/10/news/local/news04.txt

http://progressillinois.com/2008/12/08/great-lakes-compact-takes-effect

http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSTRE4B45KB20081205

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE4B860C20081209

http://billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/12/08/news/state/45-notebook.txt

http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2008/12/01/news/local//news04.txt

http://ballparkdigest.com/news/index.html?article_id=726

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122891702630494623.html?mod=testMod

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/10/business/media/10paper.html?_r=1&ref=business

http://www.salon.com/comics/tomo/2008/12/09/tomo/

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/09/news/economy/corporate_library_exec_comp/index.htm?postversion=2008120917

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081208/pl_afp/uschinabankregulatebankingcompanyccb

http://www.lp.org/news/press-releases/resolution-condemning-domestic-deployment-of-the-us-military

http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2008/0911-thunderstorms_and_asthma.htm

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-edar10-2008dec10,0,5253031.story

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1211/p04s01-woeu.html

http://features.csmonitor.com/environment/2008/12/09/in-new-mexico-canyon-a-novel-way-to-prevent-roadkill/

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1208/p13s01-wmgn.html

http://features.csmonitor.com/backstory/2008/12/10/colorado-couple-tries-to-go-a-year-without-buying-anything-new/

http://www.csmonitor.com/patchworknation/csmstaff/2008/1210/how-communities-are-weathering-the-economic-storm/

http://www.sltrib.com/utahpolitics/ci_11151770?source=rss

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/10/AR2008121001024.html

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/nov/30/will-beware-another-new-deal/

http://www.facethestate.com/articles/12659-does-denver-have-bailout-fever

http://www.facethestate.com/buzz/12626-tancredo-obama-new-deal-border-fence

http://www.ncbr.com/enews.asp?date=12/8/2008#story1

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081208180339.htm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/3705790/Scientists-develop-software-that-can-map-dreams.html

http://www.wyofile.com/wyoming_mormons_in_star_valley.htm

http://www.newwest.net/topic/article/our_chance_at_a_clean_green_economic_revolution/C35/L35/

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081209091945.htm

http://huggingharoldreynolds.blogspot.com/2008/12/red-sox-logos-leaked.html

*****

09 December 2008

Next to Final Report on 2008 Elections

It has now been five weeks since Election Day was conducted across the nation, and we now have final results for all the undecided races except for one. The one race which remains unsettled is for the US Senate seat in Minnesota, where a recount is still ongoing to determine a victor between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken. The process is currently at a standstill as an envelope containing the result of 430 votes cast in Minneapolis is currently missing. The Minnesota state elections canvassing board has given Minneapolis until Monday 16 December to locate the missing ballots as the board plans to certify the election as final on that date. Currently Coleman leads Franken by less than 300 votes in the recount, but the missing ballots are from a precinct in Minneapolis that has an overwhelming majority of voters registered as Democrats.

The other results that were unsettled are now final were for five congressional seats. In Ohio, there was a Democratic pickup in the state's 15th Congressional District as challenger Mary Jo Kilroy overcame the lead by GOP candidate Steve Stivers by scoring an overwhelming victory in the late counting of absentee, provisional and mail-in ballots. Kilroy becomes the first Democratic congressional representative from this district since 1967. An Ohio Supreme Court decision was necessary to finalize the results of this election. Kilroy succeeds Republican Deborah Pryce whom represented this district for seven terms before deciding to retire from her seat following her current term.

In Virginia's Fourth Congressional District, results have been made final and Democratic challenger Tom Perriello did score an upset victory over controversial six term Republican incumbent Virgil Goode by a margin of just 745 votes out of over 311,ooo cast. This result is another Democratic pickup.

In California, the Fourth Congressional District was contested by Republican challenger Tom McClintock against Democratic challenger Charlie Brown. After provisional, mail-in, and absentee ballots were finally counted, McClintock was able to claim victory by a margin of 1576 votes out nearly 365,000 cast. McClintock succeeds eight term Republican John Doolittle, whom is vacating the seat under the shadow and cloud of corruption and bribery.

In Louisiana, two Congressional seats were settled with special elections on Saturday 6 December held late due to Hurricane Gustav. Republicans were winners in both contests, giving Louisiana seven of its eight member congressional delegation from the GOP in the upcoming 111th Congress, an increase of two from the just ending 110th. In an upset of sorts, voters in the Second Congressional District ousted blatantly corrupt and federally indicted nine term Democratic incumbent William Jefferson by electing Republican Anh "Joseph" Cao, an attorney whom will be the first Vietnamese-American in Congress. Jefferson's defeat appears to be also due to an extremely light turnout in this election for this seat.

In the other election in The Pelican State, the Fourth Congressional District seat was narrowly captured by physican and author John C Fleming, a Republican. Fleming edged Democratic challenger Paul Carmouche by 356 votes out of over 88,000 cast.

These results leave the US House of Representatives with 257 Democrats and 178 Republicans for the upcoming 111th Congress to be sworn in on Monday 6 January 2009 and serving until the closing days of 2010 or very early in 2011 when the 112th Congress takes its seats.

Ironically, the percentage spread of 59 -41 for the Democrats is almost exactly the same as the US Senate, and would be if Franken overcomes Coleman in Minnesota and the Democrats pick up the seat, making the US Senate 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans.

*****

Tuesday 9 December's Links for Information and Enlightenment

http://www.latimes.com/news/obituaries/la-me-passings9-2008dec09,0,2564117.story

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/09/us/09morrison.html?_r=1

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2008-12-07-childrens-brains_N.htm

http://blog.dispatch.com/dailybriefing/2008/12/kilroy_wins.shtml#more

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/07/us/07louisiana.html?hp

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-gas9-2008dec09,0,3269729.story

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/05/AR2008120502606.html

http://www.sltrib.com/ci_11171304

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/09/us/09timber.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/09/health/09scan.html?em=&pagewanted=all

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/08/health/nutrition/08recipehealth.html?em

http://www.casperstartribune.com/articles/2008/12/05/news/wyoming/34c78b188b93f66c872575160001cf3c.txt

http://www.casperstartribune.com/articles/2008/12/09/news/wyoming/003e5ce9e9d51c948725751a00087742.txt

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2008/12/08/20081208Montini1209.html

http://www.grist.org/feature/2008/12/08/index.html

http://www.newwest.net/topic/article/new_mexico_money_woes_force_painful_choices/C37/L37/

http://www.casperstartribune.net/articles/2008/12/08/news/wyoming/cc3d3e3ad8c2a7428725751800783bde.txt

http://www.sltrib.com/ci_11173250

http://www.motherjones.com/news/feature/2009/01/stimulus-is-for-suckers.html

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/12/09-12

http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5723

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/dec/09/climate-change-science-environment

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/12/08-2

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-williams7-2008dec07,0,5274001.story

http://www.donsiegelman.org/index.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/06/AR2008120602187.html?hpid=topnews

http://mediamatters.org/items/200812060002?lid=790276&rid=18701118

http://pr.thinkprogress.org/2008/12/pr20081208/index.html

http://www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/1207.html#article

http://roguecolumnist.typepad.com/rogue_columnist/2008/12/the-kookocracy-gets-its-moment.html#more

http://www.denverpost.com/opinion/ci_11170837

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/12/07/sunday/main4652633.shtml?source=RSSattr=HOME_4652633

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16258.html

http://www.native-view.com/

http://blogs.consumerreports.org/money/tightwad_tod/index.html

*****

08 December 2008

In Our Future ??? Let Us Hope Not....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/05/AR2008120502606.html

*****

More on Our Troubled Times

Every new day brings more insight and information on the ongoing economic collapse, and each day brings the threat of this economic recession nearing and becoming an economic depression more and more of a reality. Clearly bad times are here, and are here to stay for quite some time ahead. But how bad is it and how bad will it get? I am a pessimist, preferring to expect the worst and be pleasantly surprised when it does not happen; rather than a optimist, believing the best is going to happen, only to be deeply disappointed when it does not. My feelings and beliefs are that we will suffer through the worse economic downturn since the late 1930s and in my lifetime of over 50 years. But I do not believe we will get to a point that is comparable to and on a par with what happened and what was endured in the decade or so before the Pearl Harbor attack and America's entry into World War II in December 1941.

But increasingly, others are start to believe this economic downturn now underway in the US as well as globally will compare in many ways to The Great Depression, including by some eminent individuals. And some are seeing things as getting worse than that.

http://roguecolumnist.typepad.com/rogue_columnist/2008/12/worse-than-the-great-depression.html

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/12/shall-we-call-it-depression-now.html

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-volcker8-2008dec08,0,1657062,full.story

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/dec/08/tipton-phony-capitalism-put-us-where-we-are-today/

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/08/business/economy/08econ.html?em

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200811u/china-scrap-metal

*****

06 December 2008

Saturday 6 December's Links for Enlightenment and Information

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1091768/Hitler-perfect-boss-Former-maid-breaks-silence-charming-dictator.html

http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/2008/12/04/warren-stopping-evil/

http://denver.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2008/12/08/story1.html?b=1228712400^1743506

http://denver.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2008/12/08/editorial1.html?b=1228712400^1742750

http://www.247wallst.com/2008/12/what-20000-jobs.html#more

http://www.dailytech.com/

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_NETHERLANDS_AMSTERDAM_CLEANUP?SITE=NVLAS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

http://mensnewsdaily.com/2008/12/03/dangerous-energy-drinks/

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/26/EDHN14BDV9.DTL

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16092.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28039392?ref=patrick.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=aElD2EJR0B2k&ref=patrick.net

http://seekingalpha.com/article/108984-residential-real-estate-erosion-ahead?ref=patrick.net

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2008/12/03/economists-stabilize-home-prices-by-cutting-them-drastically/?ref=patrick.net

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081205171005.htm

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081204133610.htm

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081202170828.htm

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081204133853.htm

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081204093041.htm

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200812/blodget-wall-street

http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/how-to-create-300000-jobs-by-2009-52331.aspx

http://www.sfgate.com/webdb/prop8/?appSession=92349664007976&RecordID=&PageID=2&PrevPageID=1&cpipage=2&CPISortType=&CPIorderBy=

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-gorillas6-2008dec06,0,3580515.story

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/valley/la-me-garland7-2008dec07,0,2734238.story

http://www.latimes.com/news/obituaries/la-me-vonbulow7-2008dec07,0,5504051.story

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-cop-spy7-2008dec07,0,3987585,full.story

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-cutler6-2008dec06,0,301245.story

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2008474718_opin06gregory.html

*****

Its Far Far Worse than You are being Told

The government lackeys and hacks told everyone on Friday 5 December the unemployment rate for November had risen to 6.7 %. This is dreadfully incorrect and does not come close to telling the full picture. If one factors in all those working only parttime because they cannot get fulltime work; those who have simply given up looking for work; and those that are underemployed because work is not available that is worthy of their education or intelligence; the actual rate is somewhere between 14 and 18 %. The best indicator of healthy employment shows only a little more than 61 % of the adult population between the ages of 18 and 65 are working fulltime.

The truly frightening thing is that we are only in the beginnings of the employm

ent slide. The numbers for unemployment are going to increase by at least 50 % by Spring 2009 and the true rate is likely to be near 25 - 30 % within six to eight months. The incoming Obama administration has put together the framework for an employment stimulus plan, but it is only a proposal and is strongly subject to the whims and greed of Congress.

Without question, the citizens of the nation are in the midst of the worst economic downturn since the late 1930s, as the current collapse has clearly surpassed the ones in the early 80s and mid 70s. Federal programs are needed quickly, as other troublesome areas of the economy only continue to worse rapidly.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/business/economy/06idle.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/06/terrible-employment-numbers/

*****

I AM the people—the mob—the crowd—the mass.
Do you know that all the great work of the world is done through me?
I am the workingman, the inventor, the maker of the world’s food and clothes.
I am the audience that witnesses history. The Napoleons come from me and the Lincolns. They die. And then I send forth more Napoleons and Lincolns.
I am the seed ground. I am a prairie that will stand for much plowing. Terrible storms pass over me. I forget. The best of me is sucked out and wasted. I forget. Everything but Death comes to me and makes me work and give up what I have. And I forget.
Sometimes I growl, shake myself and spatter a few red drops for history to remember. Then—I forget.
When I, the People, learn to remember, when I, the People, use the lessons of yesterday and no longer forget who robbed me last year, who played me for a fool—then there will be no speaker in all the world say the name: “The People,” with any fleck of a sneer in his voice or any far-off smile of derision.
The mob—the crowd—the mass—will arrive then.

Pollster.com

Lincoln's Grave Warning Realized

Eight Principles of Uncivilization

Our American Objectives

The Continuing Case for The Second Bill of Rights for All American Citzens

Monetary Cost of Iraq War

30 December 2008

29 December 2008

26 December 2008

Eisenhower's Roads to Prosperity

22 December 2008

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17 December 2008

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06 December 2008

Donations of Generosity & Charity

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Seven Rules of Good Government

Benchmark Oil Price per Bbl

Slideshow

Link Referral

The Sad Truth

State Legislature Political Make Up Map (Red=GOP; Blue=Dem; Purple=Split; Gray= NonPartisan)

What is Up Next: (From Automatic Earth Blog)

10 Ways To Justly and Logically Move Forward

The Unjust Pyramid that is American Corporate Absolutist Market Capitalism

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