Lincoln's Grave Warning Realized

...a letter from President Abraham Lincoln to William F Elkins on 21 November 1864:

"I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me to tremble for the safety of my country...corporations have been enthroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon the prejudices of the people until all wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed."

Our American Objectives

"Our national goals must be to rejuvenate the domestic economy; transfer the economic basis of our nation from consumptive to productive; recapitalize education and the technologies industries; achieve complete energy independence; move towards renewable energy sources;
restore public confidence in the government's ability to undertake large national infrastructure projects, and re-assert its right to set goals and policies to ensure those projects proceed smoothly; define the overarching standards for a reconstructed America including a federal review of the building and planning codes now in use, and probably the writing of new mandates that set out 21st-century standards and priorities for energy use, urban and transportation planning, and environmental design, which once put into law and accepted into general use, will be very difficult to change; commit funding for a massive 10- or 20-year program that will upgrade or replace failing components of America's infrastructure as the nation is broke (as it was in FDR's day) and this kind of spending needs to be seen as the long-term investment in our economic future that it is; restore a fair, honest, broad-based system of public contracting that will put large numbers of Americans to work on these new projects (and write the new rules in a way that ensures that the firms doing the most innovative work don't have to compete with unfair behemoth corporations like Halliburton and Lockheed for the lion's share of the funding) so that once there is a healthy, competitive construction industry that knows how to build sustainable projects—and is relying on the government to keep it in business—we will get a political constituency that will fight to ensure that the rebuilding will continue for the next several decades, regardless of what political party is in power; use the forces of globalization and information to strengthen and expand existing democratic alliances and created new ones; employ these alliances to destroy terrorist networks and establish new international security structures; lead, through our historic principles, on international cooperative efforts in spreading economic opportunity and democratic liberties, nation building, counter-prolification, and optimum environmental protection and safeguards; and cherish, honor, and protect our history and traditions of liberty and freedoms domestically particularly with respect to the Bill of Rights."

"The renewed social contract for America with its middle class and poor must:
  • Raise the minimum wage still higher and on a regular basis. It has fallen far behind increases in inflation since the 1970s, and that affects higher level wages as well.
  • Encourage living-wage programs by local governments. Governments can demand that their contractors and suppliers pay well above the minimum wage. There is substantial evidence that this does not result in an undue loss of jobs.
  • Enforce the labor laws vigilantly. Minimum-wage and maximum-hour laws are violated to a stunning degree. American workers shouldn't be forced by their employers to understate the number of hours worked or be locked in the warehouse so they can't leave on time. Workers often make only $2 and $3 an hour.
  • Unions are not seeking a free pass to organize secretly when they advocate for open check-offs on cards to approve of a union vote. They are seeking to organize without persistent and often illegal management interference. Penalties for illegally deterring such organizing are so light, it makes little sense for management not to pursue strategies to stop organizing even at the cost of prosecution.
  • Request that trading partners develop serious environmental standards and worker-protection laws. This is good for them, bringing a progressive revolution and a robust domestic market to their countries. It is good for America, which will be able to compete on a more level playing field.
  • Demand that the president, governors and mayors speak up about unconscionable executive salaries and low wages. The influence from the top cannot be underestimated. A president who looks the other way sends a strong signal to business. A president who demands responsible treatment of workers will get a response. Business does not like such attention.
  • These measures should be accompanied by serious investment in modernized infrastructure and energy alternatives, which can create millions of domestic jobs that pay good salaries. It should also be accompanied by a policy that supports a lower dollar -- contrary to Rubinomics -- in order to stimulate manufacturing exports again. Accomplishing this may require a new system of semi-fixed currencies across the globe. The unabashed high-dollar policy of the past twenty years has led to imbalances around the world that have contributed fundamentally to US overindebtedness.
  • And finally, the nation needs more balance on the part of the Federal Reserve between subduing inflation and creating jobs. Americans can live with inflation above 2 percent a year. There is no academic evidence to support a 2 percent annual target, although the Fed has made this its informal target."

Monetary Cost of Iraq War

23 November 2008

Sunday 23 November's Links for Enlightenment and Information

http://www.group30.org/index.htm

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/22/georgias-dem-senate-candi_n_145733.html

http://www.multinationalmonitor.org/mm2008/112008/weissman.html

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/11/22-1

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2008/11/21/20081121boot-theft1121-ON.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/20/health/nutrition/20recipehealth.html?_r=1&em

http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/price-fishback-what-do-the-new-deal-and-world-war-ii-tell-us-about-the-prospects-for-a-stimulus-package/#more-3329

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=arEE1iClqDrk&refer=home

http://pr.thinkprogress.org/2008/11/pr20081124/index.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Hewlett-Packard-better-shape-Dell/story.aspx?guid=%7BDADE8110%2DF1D6%2D44E8%2D95BC%2D7D96CC1FF93F%7D

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/11/24/dell-and-hp-holiday-fortunes-rest-on-wal-mart-this-season-yeah/

*****

22 November 2008

Sign of Things to Come: 10 % Unemployment in Southern California Inland Empire

The Inland Empire is a region in Southern California east of Orange County and Los Angeles, and consists of such cities as San Bernardino, Riverside, and Ontario. This area has long been a growing region but the current recession has become a depression with unemployment nearing 10 % and forecasted to be near 13 % in the coming months of 2009. Of course, real unemployment will be actually be around 20 % to 25 % in this area which has long been blessed with economic vitality and prosperity.
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One shudders when one thinks that this may be the future in many, if not most places, in the coming six months to a year. It is easy to imagine it becoming widespread.
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The incoming Obama administration faces dire economic circumstances nationally. Hopefully the new administration will be as successful as the new Reagan administration was in 1981 in turning things around, but it will be a daunting and overwhelming challenge requiring a different approach and tactics. The Reagan experience took until late in 1982 to mid 1983 to get things fully reversed. If that time frame is repeated, we may looking at sometime in 2011 before an improvement becomes steady. And most observers and analysts feel this economic downturn and recession is going to be far, far worse and longer lasting than the one in the early 1980s. That may push the window for visible and noticeable improvement out beyond Summer 2011...
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http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-nojobs22-2008nov22,0,7791795.story
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*****

21 November 2008

Friday 21 November's Links for Enlightenment and Information

...And since its Friday, what the hey, lets add some entertaining links into the mix as well...

http://www.opednews.com/articles/Fate-of-Lakotahs-Highlight-by-Stephen-Lendman-081121-854.html

http://www.propublica.org/article/i-beg-your-pardon-1120/

http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB122721995964045669-lMyQjAxMDI4MjI3MTIyMTE5Wj.html

http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/alerts/514

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/business/21shell.html?_r=1

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1118/p01s03-woap.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSN2041155720081120

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/after-aig-paulson-needs-perspective/story.aspx?guid=%7B50E3CD3B%2D3D91%2D4C66%2DB17C%2D104854A3D437%7D

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122705706314639537.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

http://oxdown.firedoglake.com/diary/1872

http://www.upi.com/news/issueoftheday/2008/11/21/US_intel_panel_warns_of_coming_national_decline/UPI-79781227285980/

http://www.twincities.com/election2008/ci_11032633?nclick_check=1

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/21/BA1A1494TB.DTL

http://www.zoombli.com/PrimaryLanding/landingaro.aspx?Referrer=fc-B29usacpa37-aro&cm_mmc=Value%20Click-_-Run%20of%20Network-_-Pup%20Under-_-usacpa37:%20Large%20Pop-Up:%20B29:%20usacpa37:%20aro

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-11-20-chinaparks_N.htm

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2008-11-20-Kennedy_N.htm

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/11/worlds-first-plug-in-electric-car-china-byd-f3dm.php

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/20/AR2008112000949.html?hpid=topnews

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/22/us/22siegelman.html?hp=&pagewanted=all

http://lolfed.com/

http://niemann.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/new-york-cheat-sheets/

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/opinion/21krugman.html?em

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/21/greathomesanddestinations/21expat.html?em

http://features.csmonitor.com/politics/2008/11/20/will-stevens%e2%80%99s-ouster-be-good-for-alaska/

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1121/p01s03-usec.html

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1121/p25s12-almo.html

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1117/p14s02-wmgn.html

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_11037204

http://www.sciam.com/blog/60-second-science/post.cfm?id=pot-joins-the-fight-against-alzheim-2008-11-19&ec=su_potalzheimer

http://www.tomdegan.blogspot.com/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/neil-young/so-you-want-a-big-electri_b_145077.html

http://lincvolt.com/

*****

20 November 2008

Thursday 20 November's Links for Enlightenment and Information

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE4AJ1GV20081120?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=23&sp=true

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f621914a-b6e9-11dd-8e01-0000779fd18c.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081120/wall_street.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/8b5f0d60-b743-11dd-8e01-0000779fd18c,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F8b5f0d60-b743-11dd-8e01-0000779fd18c.html&_i_referer=

http://www.vanityfair.com/online/politics/2008/10/wall-streets-25-biggest-losers.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aSQiBCOuoGGM&refer=home

*****

No to Bailout of Automobile Manufacturers

It has been about two months since Congress enacted legislation authorizing $350 billion for use by Treasury Secretary Paulson to address woes in the financial and credit markets. Many across the nation were opposed to this bailout of monied financial powerhouses for a number of various reasons, mostly on the belief it was unfair, wrong, and questionable as to whether ist would do any good. This writer strongly reluctantly agreed to support the concept. And unfortunately, the fears by many seemingly have been realized. The money authorized in the legislation signed by President Bush has done nothing to even minimally revive the economy, and much of the money has been squandered by banks on executive bonuses and perks, acquisitions of competitors, and other wasteful and unproductive activities. As each day passes, more and more of the public continues to reverse their prior support for the first bailout package.
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The original purpose of the bailout legislation was to address real estate loans inventories that were extremely troublesome for the financial markets. But Paulson has waffled and seesawed on the plan he wants to employ, and now his strategy is to give banks money to address bad consumer debt that is largely unsecured. Clearly the approach on trying to address the ongoing financial collapse by Treasury officials and the Fed has been completely unproductive and largely wasteful. And as each day goes by, things are getting collectively worse.
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Now the Big Three automobile manufacturers have come to Washington DC with hat in hand asking for an indeterminate amount of money for largely unknown purposes. This industry has been in a long slow decline for decades and has been marked by extremely poor management and seriously flawed business plans. The products they put out are clearly inferior in quality and value relative to competitors.
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This writer believes Congress just needs to say "No" to Detroit. It would be far better for these three dinosaurs to fall into bankruptcy. Out of that process would emerge manufacturers better able to compete and produce quality motor vehicles of value. Maintaining the status quo with an input of federal taxpayer cash is just delaying the inevitable. The Big Three are corporations of yesteryear and incapable of moving their businesses into the 21st Century with alternative fuel vehicles that are quality built, at a fair price, and capable of meeting consumer demands and expectations.
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While there is a substantive risk GM and Chrysler are likely to go into bankruptcy and very well may disappear completely from the landscape, the idea of throwing federal taxpayers dollars at this troika of losers is absolutely the wrong thing to do, and especially given the current overall economic circumstances and environment we are now in the midst of and will be for the coming 18 - 24 months at least. It is a far better idea to let these two fail rather than keep their sick diseased carcusses on life support through the use of a taxpayer funded bailout.
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George Will says much of what I believe in his comments in the link below.
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http://dailymail.com/Opinion/gwill/200811190171
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*****

19 November 2008

Citigroup (Citibank) Going Down in a Matter of Days

As I expected, the demise of Citigroup is now at hand. Information is emerging that strongly indicates the bank will fail in a matter of days, perhaps as soon as the end of this week. The FDIC will give the bank a chance to find a buyer, and it is likely it will, given the history and name of Citigroup in the financial world as well as in the minds of consumers. Will it be Barclays, another European bank, or perhaps one of the former investment banks (JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs) looking for a deposit bank to ease the transition into becoming commercial banks themselves ? We will have to wait to see. One big thing looming will be the impact of this monumental collapse and the jolt on the financial markets. The days following the realization of this will be ones of great strife and misery for all the major indices. The Dow could drop into the mid to upper 6000s; the NASDAQ will go below 1000; and the S&P 500 will sink to below 500.
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And the media will be in an uproar and panic. It will be ugly.
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http://www.247wallst.com/2008/11/market-assuming.html#more
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*****

Wednesday 19 November's Links for Enlightenment and Information

http://onthehillblog.blogspot.com/2008/11/progressives-press-ahead-with-single.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/19/business/economy/19ports.html?pagewanted=all

http://www.alternet.org/environment/107134/finding_the_best%2C_local_food_near_you_just_got_easier/?page=entire

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2008/11/16/depression_2009_what_would_it_look_like/?page=full

http://www.alternet.org/story/107340/

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/20/business/economy/20econ.html?8au&emc=au

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/11/bottom-up-bailout-rather-than-trickle.html

*****

18 November 2008

Monday 17 November's Links for Enlightenment and Information

http://www.citizenlink.org/

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Well-Great-Depression-2-20/story.aspx?guid=%7BB28B49B5%2DEFD1%2D4941%2DB57E%2DA2BA1545BA09%7D&dist=SecMostRead

http://www.alternet.org/environment/107455/

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/climatewarmingantarcticaglaciers

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2008/11/16/depression_2009_what_would_it_look_like/?page=full

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/17/paul-krugman-schools-geor_n_144298.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/17/the-amazing-story-of-saxb_n_144307.html

http://www.sfbg.com/entry.php?entry_id=7474&catid=&volume_id=398&issue_id=405&volume_num=43&issue_num=07

http://www.peer.org/news/news_id.php?row_id=1127

http://www.bestcyrano.org/THOMASPAINE/?p=1258

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27719011

*****

16 November 2008

New Housing Starts Worst Since 1940

According to most experts and analysts, this will be the depressing news in the coming days.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Housing-starts-seen-lowest-over/story.aspx?guid=%7B4CA0BEBE%2D9AAF%2D4F47%2DAEE8%2D86042D8CEB2D%7D
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*****

Explaining the Downfall of Wall Street

Michael Lewis is the author of the non-fiction best selling book Liar's Poker in 1989 that strongly captured the culture and excesses of Wall Street and high stakes finance. The era in which Lewis described in his book continued until recently and only worsened tremendously. This article written by Lewis goes back to what Wall Street has been about over the last two plus decades and what happened to end the Era of Greed. He basically states that the years of chicanery, artifice, subterfuge, lies, deception, cheating, and fraud finally reached a breaking point. Years of blind faith on the part of all participants finally reached a breaking point as reality set in. And the consequences are grave and will continue to be for many if not most of us for a good bit of the foreseeable future.
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http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom?tid=true#page1
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*****

The Massive Ticking Time Bomb

Issues about currency and their valuation relative to other economic indices are often difficult to understand, let alone explain. The information in this rather lengthy article does about as a good a job as possible in trying to overcome those obstacles. It also provides a good historical review of why past currency agreements were made, and why another one is all but necessary very soon given the current and ongoing economic downturn .
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http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=16872fed-798c-476b-a6c4-303923cd6388&p=1
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*****

State Budget Deficits Increase Broadly

The news is grim about the economy from the perspective of state and local governments. Most states are looking at budget deficits for the upcoming year and probably beyond into 2010 and 2011. Most states will respond with cuts in social services programs, particularly for children, the poor, and seniors. Transportation projects, some desperately needed, will be shelved. There is likely to be layoffs of public employees, most likely to be ones that have daily contact with the public and will result in poorer and longer waits for service. What will not happen is pay cuts for executive branch officials as well as other highly paid bureaucrats. And is some states, the spectre of tax increases looms in spite of the overall downturn and malaise across the nation.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/17/us/17fiscal.html
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http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1114/p01s05-usec.html
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*****

12 November 2008

Updates on Undetermined US Senate, US House Contests

We are more than a week out past Election Day 2008, and a few races for seats in the US Senate and US House are still undecided. Here is a brief update on them.


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Alaska US Senate seat: The counting of absentee mail - in, and military ballots is underway, and results thus far have changed the lead from incumbent Ted Stevens to challenger Mark Begich. Stevens has lost his over 3300 vote lead and now trails by a margin of a mere few votes. Many more votes still remain to be tallied, but most analysts and observers feel Begich will only see his lead grow, leading to the defeat of the longest current sitting Republican member of the US Senate. In addition, Stevens' felony convictions will likely result in having him expelled from the remaining weeks of the current 110th Congress, perhaps as early as next week.
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Alaska at - large US House seat: Like Stevens, longtime GOP incumbent Don Young is seeing his once sizeable lead over challenger Ethan Berkowitz diminish, but just slightly A lead of approximately 17,000 votes has edged down to around 15,000. Young may just hold on to his seat after all.
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California Fourth Congressional District seat: This contest remains undecided still, as Republican Tom McClintock holds a 1283 vote edge over Democrat Charlie Brown. Many more provisional, mail - in, and absentee ballots remain to be counted, however.
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Minnesota US Senate seat: This tight contest has only gotten closer in the days following the vote in The Land of 10,000 Lakes. Republican one term incumbent Norm Coleman has but a 206 vote margin over Democratic challenger Al Franken. There will be a recount which will commence on Thursday 20 November to determine finally who wins this expensive and strongly antagonistic race.
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Ohio Fifteenth Congressional Districts seat: Republican Steve Stivers still has a 149 vote lead over Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy as no counting of any provisional or absentee ballots has begun in this district.
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Virginia Fifth Congressional District seat: The counting of absentee and provisional ballots has begun and it has resulted in a reversal of the lead as Democratic challenger Tom Periello has a lead of 745 votes over six term incumbent Republican Virgil Goode. This is a reversal of 1391 votes since all of the regular voting precincts reported. If Periello's lead holds, or grows as is expected, this would be a pickup for Democrats in the US House and would also result in the delegation to the US House from The Old Dominion having a majority of Democrats by a 6 - 5 margin for the upcoming 111th Congress in the U S House of Representatives.
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*
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The election to finally decide the seat in the US Senate from Georgia is Tuesday 2 December; and two congressional districts in Georgia will have elections on Saturday 6 December. As of now, Democrats are favored to win all three of these contests. The runoff contest in Georgia is already ugly.
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*****

Which America Do You Witness and Experience Most Every Day ?

...From Chris Hedges as written on 10 November 2008 in the blog truthdig..com:
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America the Illiterate
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We live in two Americas. One America, now the minority, functions in a print-based, literate world. It can cope with complexity and has the intellectual tools to separate illusion from truth. The other America, which constitutes the majority, exists in a non-reality-based belief system. This America, dependent on skillfully manipulated images for information, has severed itself from the literate, print-based culture. It cannot differentiate between lies and truth. It is informed by simplistic, childish narratives and clichés. It is thrown into confusion by ambiguity, nuance and self-reflection. This divide, more than race, class or gender, more than rural or urban, believer or nonbeliever, red state or blue state, has split the country into radically distinct, unbridgeable and antagonistic entities.
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There are over 42 million American adults, 20 percent of whom hold high school diplomas, who cannot read, as well as the 50 million who read at a fourth- or fifth-grade level. Nearly a third of the nation’s population is illiterate or barely literate. And their numbers are growing by an estimated 2 million a year. But even those who are supposedly literate retreat in huge numbers into this image-based existence. A third of high school graduates, along with 42 percent of college graduates, never read a book after they finish school. Eighty percent of the families in the United States last year did not buy a book.
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The illiterate rarely vote, and when they do vote they do so without the ability to make decisions based on textual information. American political campaigns, which have learned to speak in the comforting epistemology of images, eschew real ideas and policy for cheap slogans and reassuring personal narratives. Political propaganda now masquerades as ideology. Political campaigns have become an experience. They do not require cognitive or self-critical skills. They are designed to ignite pseudo-religious feelings of euphoria, empowerment and collective salvation. Campaigns that succeed are carefully constructed psychological instruments that manipulate fickle public moods, emotions and impulses, many of which are subliminal. They create a public ecstasy that annuls individuality and fosters a state of mindlessness. They thrust us into an eternal present. They cater to a nation that now lives in a state of permanent amnesia. It is style and story, not content or history or reality, which inform our politics and our lives. We prefer happy illusions. And it works because so much of the American electorate, including those who should know better, blindly cast ballots for slogans, smiles, the cheerful family tableaux, narratives and the perceived sincerity and the attractiveness of candidates. We confuse how we feel with knowledge.
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The illiterate and semi-literate, once the campaigns are over, remain powerless. They still cannot protect their children from dysfunctional public schools. They still cannot understand predatory loan deals, the intricacies of mortgage papers, credit card agreements and equity lines of credit that drive them into foreclosures and bankruptcies. They still struggle with the most basic chores of daily life from reading instructions on medicine bottles to filling out bank forms, car loan documents and unemployment benefit and insurance papers. They watch helplessly and without comprehension as hundreds of thousands of jobs are shed. They are hostages to brands. Brands come with images and slogans. Images and slogans are all they understand. Many eat at fast food restaurants not only because it is cheap but because they can order from pictures rather than menus. And those who serve them, also semi-literate or illiterate, punch in orders on cash registers whose keys are marked with symbols and pictures. This is our brave new world.
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Political leaders in our post-literate society no longer need to be competent, sincere or honest. They only need to appear to have these qualities. Most of all they need a story, a narrative. The reality of the narrative is irrelevant. It can be completely at odds with the facts. The consistency and emotional appeal of the story are paramount. The most essential skill in political theater and the consumer culture is artifice. Those who are best at artifice succeed. Those who have not mastered the art of artifice fail. In an age of images and entertainment, in an age of instant emotional gratification, we do not seek or want honesty. We ask to be indulged and entertained by clichés, stereotypes and mythic narratives that tell us we can be whomever we want to be, that we live in the greatest country on Earth, that we are endowed with superior moral and physical qualities and that our glorious future is preordained, either because of our attributes as Americans or because we are blessed by God or both.

The ability to magnify these simple and childish lies, to repeat them and have surrogates repeat them in endless loops of news cycles, gives these lies the aura of an uncontested truth. We are repeatedly fed words or phrases like yes we can, maverick, change, pro-life, hope or war on terror. It feels good not to think. All we have to do is visualize what we want, believe in ourselves and summon those hidden inner resources, whether divine or national, that make the world conform to our desires. Reality is never an impediment to our advancement.
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The Princeton Review analyzed the transcripts of the Gore-Bush debates, the Clinton-Bush-Perot debates of 1992, the Kennedy-Nixon debates of 1960 and the Lincoln-Douglas debates of 1858. It reviewed these transcripts using a standard vocabulary test that indicates the minimum educational standard needed for a reader to grasp the text. During the 2000 debates, George W. Bush spoke at a sixth-grade level (6.7) and Al Gore at a seventh-grade level (7.6). In the 1992 debates, Bill Clinton spoke at a seventh-grade level (7.6), while George H.W. Bush spoke at a sixth-grade level (6.8), as did H. Ross Perot (6.3). In the debates between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon, the candidates spoke in language used by 10th-graders. In the debates of Abraham Lincoln and Stephen A. Douglas the scores were respectively 11.2 and 12.0. In short, today’s political rhetoric is designed to be comprehensible to a 10-year-old child or an adult with a sixth-grade reading level. It is fitted to this level of comprehension because most Americans speak, think and are entertained at this level. This is why serious film and theater and other serious artistic expression, as well as newspapers and books, are being pushed to the margins of American society. Voltaire was the most famous man of the 18th century. Today the most famous “person” is Mickey Mouse.
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In our post-literate world, because ideas are inaccessible, there is a need for constant stimulus. News, political debate, theater, art and books are judged not on the power of their ideas but on their ability to entertain. Cultural products that force us to examine ourselves and our society are condemned as elitist and impenetrable. Hannah Arendt warned that the marketization of culture leads to its degradation, that this marketization creates a new celebrity class of intellectuals who, although well read and informed themselves, see their role in society as persuading the masses that “Hamlet” can be as entertaining as “The Lion King” and perhaps as educational. “Culture,” she wrote, “is being destroyed in order to yield entertainment.”
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“There are many great authors of the past who have survived centuries of oblivion and neglect,” Arendt wrote, “but it is still an open question whether they will be able to survive an entertaining version of what they have to say.”
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The change from a print-based to an image-based society has transformed our nation. Huge segments of our population, especially those who live in the embrace of the Christian right and the consumer culture, are completely unmoored from reality. They lack the capacity to search for truth and cope rationally with our mounting social and economic ills. They seek clarity, entertainment and order. They are willing to use force to impose this clarity on others, especially those who do not speak as they speak and think as they think. All the traditional tools of democracies, including dispassionate scientific and historical truth, facts, news and rational debate, are useless instruments in a world that lacks the capacity to use them.
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As we descend into a devastating economic crisis, one that Barack Obama cannot halt, there will be tens of millions of Americans who will be ruthlessly thrust aside. As their houses are foreclosed, as their jobs are lost, as they are forced to declare bankruptcy and watch their communities collapse, they will retreat even further into irrational fantasy. They will be led toward glittering and self-destructive illusions by our modern Pied Pipers—our corporate advertisers, our charlatan preachers, our television news celebrities, our self-help gurus, our entertainment industry and our political demagogues—who will offer increasingly absurd forms of escapism.
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The core values of our open society, the ability to think for oneself, to draw independent conclusions, to express dissent when judgment and common sense indicate something is wrong, to be self-critical, to challenge authority, to understand historical facts, to separate truth from lies, to advocate for change and to acknowledge that there are other views, different ways of being, that are morally and socially acceptable, are dying. Obama used hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign funds to appeal to and manipulate this illiteracy and irrationalism to his advantage, but these forces will prove to be his most deadly nemesis once they collide with the awful reality that awaits us.
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*
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It is not surprising that many, if not most of us, are strongly exposed to the less preferable side, or the illiterate side, as described in this article on a regular, even daily basis. It portends to a grim future for the nation if we are not there already...
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*****

11 November 2008

The Price of Bush for Republicans

This rather lengthy article does a superb job of explaining and analyzing why George Bush has effectively destroyed the Republican Party as it has been known for over a generation, and what it will mean in the coming years, as well what the GOP may and have to do to resurrect itself.
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http://www.rollingstone.com/news/coverstory/22665562
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*****

Attention, Newman ! Attention, Clavin !

It has long been known the Unites States Postal Service (USPS) is a bureaucracy that is bloated and full of waste. Numerous people are employed by the service that are simply unnecessary and clearly a waste of money. Images in popular culture of fictional postal workers such as Newman in the television program Seinfeld and Cliff Clavin in Cheers often reflect the image of postal employees quite accurately for many users of the service and have been etched in the mindsets and attitudes of the public, albeit inaccurately. The news today that the Postal Service will be eliminating tens of thousands of jobs and employees in the next year of so is long overdue. The use of electronic mail (email) has largely ended the practice of mailing letters by much of the public, effectively making the mail a government subsidized perk for use by corporations, advertisers, and marketers. It is quite within the realm of belief that the USPS will all but disappear within a generation.
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http://www.ksla.com/global/story.asp?s=9247633
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*****

Arizona to See the End of Payday Lenders

It is very pleasing indeed to see Arizona join a growing list of other states that is banning the greedy and excessive practices of payday loan centers. 15 states now effectively ban payday lenders: Arkansas, Connecticut, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont and West Virginia. Voters in the Grand Canyon State voted down a ballot proposition on Election Day (Tuesday 4 November '08) basically written and sponsored by the payday lending industry that would have permitted high interest loans and other unwise and selfish lending practices to continue after legislation passed last year would have ended it. These modern day loan sharks, a scourge upon the land and an eyesore throughout most communities, now must do business along the lines of other financial institutions. Having to abide by these limits and restrictions will inevitably lead to their disappearance rather soon.
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Hopefully the other states in the Mountain States region, as well as those along the Pacific West Coast and the Great Plains, will adopt similar stringent measures to kill this plague and pestilence from all our communities and neighborhoods everywhere throughout the West.
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http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2008/11/10/20081110biz-payday1110.html
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*****

09 November 2008

Stevens' Lead Slipping Away in Alaska

The analysis in the blog fivethirtyeight.com shows a growing likelihood longtime Republican Senator Ted Stevens will inevitably be passed once counting begins of absentee, early, and military ballots. This blog believes that Mark Begich, the Democratic challenger, will end up with an approximately 3000 vote victory.
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It will be interesting to see what develops over the next two weeks.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/uncounted-votes-may-push-begich-past.html

*****

Senator Bernie Sanders on the Current American Economy

...From the Sunday 9 November blog buzzflash:
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As the Bush administration sputters to an end, the official unemployment rate rose from 6.1 to 6.5 percent in October, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 603,000 to 10.1 million -- a 14 year high. In the last year alone of the Bush Administration, unemployment has increased by 2.8 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 1.7 percentage points. The news is deeply disheartening.
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And these figures are conservative. They do not include workers who want a full-time job but are working part-time or workers who have given up looking for work completely. The number of involuntary part-time workers rose by 645,000 last month to 6.7 million. The figures do not include another half million workers so discouraged they have stopped looking for work. If we total these numbers, the unemployment and underemployment figures are very stark: almost 17 million Americans are jobless or unable to find the full-time employment they want.
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These are very difficult times for Vermonters and Americans throughout this country. Consumer confidence is at an all-time low; while the foreclosure rate is at an all-time high. More than 100,000 Americans filed for bankruptcy just last month. Many of those fortunate enough to have a job are seeing their wages go down, while prices have been going up. Recent declines in the stock market are shattering the retirement dreams of many older Americans and forcing many more to delay their retirement plans for years to come.
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Since Bush has been president, nearly 6 million Americans have slipped out of the middle class and into poverty; over 7 million Americans have lost their health insurance; more than 4 million Americans have lost their pensions, and median income for working-age Americans has gone down by over $2,000.
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In these very difficult economic conditions, doing nothing is not an option.
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When the Senate reconvenes on November 17, I intend to fight for an economic recovery program that is significant enough in size and scope to respond to the major economic crisis this country now faces.
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If we can commit more than $1 trillion to rescue bankers and insurance companies from their reckless and irresponsible behavior, we certainly should be investing in millions of good-paying jobs that rebuild our nation and improve its economy.
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In my view, the size of this economic recovery plan should be, at a minimum, $300 billion.
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This economic recovery package should first improve our crumbling infrastructure by improving our roads, bridges and public transportation. We need to bring our water and sewer systems into the 21st century. We need to make certain that high-quality Internet service is available in every community in America. Not only are these investments desperately needed, but also every $1 billion that we put into these initiatives will create up to 47,000 new jobs.
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We also need to make a major financial commitment to energy efficiency and sustainable energy. With a major investment, we can stop importing foreign oil in 10 years, produce all of our electricity from sustainable energy within a decade, and substantially cut greenhouse gas emissions. We can also make the United States the world leader in the construction of solar, wind, bio-fuel, and geothermal facilities for energy production, as well as create a significant number of jobs by making our homes, offices, schools, and factories far more energy efficient.
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In these harsh economic times, we should also make sure that, at the very least, all Americans have access to primary health care and dental care, which we can do by substantially increasing funding for the highly-effective community health center program. We should extend unemployment benefits, so that more than 1 million Americans do not run out of their benefits by the end of this year. We should assure that no one in America, in these hard times, goes hungry or homeless.
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Finally, with towns and states such as Vermont facing deep deficits, we must make a major, immediate financial commitment to states and municipalities. Their crisis will only grow worse as homes are foreclosed, as incomes decline, and as fees on sales of homes and motor vehicles diminish. For too long, unfunded federal mandates have drained the budgets of states and communities. The strength and vitality of our communities must be restored.
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Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is the junior U.S. senator from Vermont.
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*
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This is a superb proposal that hopefully will be enacted largely in the form Senator Sanders is proposing. As he firmly states, the economy across the nation is in a freefall that requires bold and decisive action.
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*****

08 November 2008

Latest on US House Representation

Its been five days since Election Day, and slowly the final numbers for the US House of Representatives that will be sworn in and seated on 3 January 2009 for the 111th Congress is coming into view. As of now it appears Democrats will have 257 seats to 178 for Republicans, a gain of 21 seats in this election for Democrats. Six races, however, remain undecided or unfinalized to some extent. Democrats may yet get to 260 seats for the next Congress. Here is the latest on these contests.
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ALASKA, at-large statewide district: Eighteen term incumbent Republican and scandal - ridden Don Young leads challenger Ethan Berkowitz by under 17,000 votes out of over 210,000 cast and counted thus far, or by 52 to 44 percent. It is estimated that perhaps as many as 80,000 or more absentee and military ballots remain to be counted. It may be until near or after Thanksgiving that we get a final result. Another factor in this race is the presence of Alaskan Independence Party candidate Don Wright on the ballot, where he has recieved nearly nine percent of the total vote thus far.

Even if Young does eventually lose this race, he may end up back in Washington DC as a US Senator to replace embattled Ted Stevens, who stands to be expelled from the Senate should he hold on to get re-elected in spite of being criminally convicted of seven felonies recently.
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CALIFORNIA, Fourth Congressional District: Nine term incumbent Republican John Doolittle, beset by enormous scandals including being linked to bribery with Jack Abramoff, announced last January he would not seek re - election. The contest to fill the seat, which covers a broad expanse of northeast California, is between Democrat Charlie Brown and Republican Tom McClintock. Results at this point show McClintock with a less than 1100 vote lead out of over 313,000 cast and counted thus far. However, thousands of mail in and provisional ballots remain to be counted. A final result should be announced sometime in the next ten days. This was one of only two congressional seats being vacated in California among its 53 seat representation, with District 52 being vacated by Republican Duncan Hunter, a former GOP presidential candidate after fourteen terms representing this district which covers northern and eastern San Diego County, a bastion of conservatism. The GOP successfully held this seat.
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A curious and interesting development in California, other than in the two seats previously mentioned, was the unanimous re - election of all 51 incumbents in the other congressional districts throughout the state.
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LOUISIANA, Second Congressional District: The Pelican State is unique in that it does not decide elections this year of two of its congressional districts until after the general election, with this year's contests being resolved by voters on Saturday, 6 December 2009. The general election earlier this week was essentially a primary runoff contest in this district. Nine term incumbent Democrat Willam Jennings "Bill" Jefferson , easily the most corrupt member of Congress, will face Republican challenger Anh Cao for this seat. Jefferson is under federal indictment for 19 counts of corruption and FBI agents have raided his office and home, finding $90,000 in cash wrapped in foil and frozen food containers in his freezer. In spite of his legal and ethical ills, Jefferson is favored to win re - election in this district which makes up areas around New Orleans and most of the city itself. His next term in the House may be short lived.
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LOUISIANA, Fourth Congressional District: Like the Second Congressional District in Louisiana, this district will hold its election for this seat on Saturday, 6 December 2009, after conducting a primary runoff on Election Day, 4 November 2009. Eleven term incumbent Republican Jim McCreary, who won the seat initially in a special election in April 1988 to fill out the remaining eight months left in a term vacated by Buddy Roemer, announced last December he was retiring. Republican John Fleming is matched up against Democrat Paul Carmouche to succeed McCreary. This district covers most of western and northwestern Louisiana and includes the city of Shreveport. Polling at this point indicates no clear favorite in the race which means the Democrats could make this a pickup.
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OHIO, Fifteenth Congressional District: This district covers parts of central Ohio, including parts of the city of Columbus and areas to the immediate south and north as well as wide expanse to the west. The district has been represented in Congress since January 1993 by Republican Deborah Pryce. Pryce announced almost 15 months ago she would retire and vacate the seat at the end of her current term. Republican Steve Stivers is seeking to hold the seat against Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, who lost narrowly to Pryce in 2006. Currently Stivers leads Kilroy by 149 votes out over 259,000 cast and counted thus far, but over 27,000 mail in and provisional ballots, largely from perceived Democratic strongholds, remain to be counted. If Kilroy overcomes Stivers' current lead, this would another pickup for Democrats in the House. Final results are expected to be announced within the next two to three weeks.
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VIRGINIA, Fifth Congressional District: 646 votes currently separates Democrat Tom Periello from six term incumbent Republican Virgil Goode. Goode is losing the election at this point due to a number of controversies and questionable actions over his time in office, which includes a switch from the Democrats to an independent status to joining the Republicans within a three year span from early 2000 to August 2002, as well as the groundswell from the Obama presidential election success and associated Democratic coattails in The Old Dominion. An unknown number of uncounted votes remains to be tallied, and the balance of which party has the greater number of representatives in Virginia is also at stake. This district covers much of central and southern Virginia including the city of Charlottesville. Final results are anticipated in the next one to two weeks, but a recount may be necessary if the margin of victory remains at 0.5 % or less. Goode was the first Republican to represent this district since 1889.
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*****

Two More Bank Failures; 19 Seized by FDIC Thus Far in '08

Two more bite the dust...Stay tuned to see who is next...
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Los-Angeles-based-Security-Pacific/story.aspx?guid=%7B027849E0%2DACF4%2D40FB%2D91B6%2DCA343484CD4F%7D&dist=SecMostRead
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http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-security8-2008nov08,0,4251813.story
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*****

A Shift of the Political Paradigm

...From Jerome Karabel as written in The Huffington Post on Friday 7 November...


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THE POLITICS OF REALIGNMENT
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Over the past one hundred years, there have only been two presidential elections that fundamentally changed the course of American politics -- Franklin Roosevelt's victory in 1932, which ushered in a generation of Democratic rule, and Ronald Reagan's triumph in 1980, which marked the beginning of 28 years of Republican dominance of national politics. Though it is far too early to be certain, Barack Obama's victory could well be the third such realigning election in the past century -- one that will be seen by historians as the beginning of an emerging Democratic majority.
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To be sure, Obama's six-point victory fell well short of a landslide. But landslides are not necessarily "realigning" elections -- those that change the contours of American politics, giving one party a long-term advantage. Witness Lyndon Johnson in 1964, who won by 23 points over Barry Goldwater, and Richard Nixon in 1972, who beat McGovern by the same margin; both triumphs were followed just four years later by the opposition party winning the White House.
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On the other hand, an election that is not a landslide can nevertheless be a realigning one. The classic example is Ronald Reagan's nine-point victory in 1980, which reconfigured American politics by defining government as "the problem not the solution." For the next quarter of a century, Reagan's free market ideas dominated politics, and battles for the presidency were fought largely on Republican terrain. Bill Clinton himself, the only Democrat to reach the White House between 1980 and 2008, admitted as much when he declared in 1996 that "the era of big government is over." In this sense, Barack Obama was surely right last January when he declared - provoking much controversy in Democratic circles - that "Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that... Bill Clinton did not."
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Yet it was not fully apparent that 1980 was a realigning election until four years later, when Ronald Reagan defeated Walter Mondale by more than 18 points. So whether 2008 will ultimately be seen as a moment of realignment depends in a good part on what happens during the next four years. Though Barack Obama's historic victory fell short of a landside, it has within it the seeds of a basic realignment of American politics. Far more than merely a response to the Wall Street meltdown, it was also a product of long-term trends favorable to the emergence of a Democratic majority that could dominate American politics over the next quarter century. Six trends, in particular, stand out:
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1. Young people flocked to Obama in unprecedented numbers, with those 18 to 29 preferring him to McCain by 66 to 32 percent. This is of great long-term significance because historically realignments have begun with the young, who in their twenties often develop party allegiances that stay with them the rest of their lives. Just as the Democratic loyalty of the generation of that came of age under Franking Roosevelt was integral to the Democratic Party's political dominance through the mid-1960s, so too was the Republican tilt of the Reagan generation crucial to Republican dominance over the past quarter century. And this year was part of a long-term trend towards the Democrats; the last time that a Republic presidential candidate won among 18 to 29 years olds was in 1988, when George H.W. Bush led among them by 5 points.
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2. The rapidly growing Hispanic population is shifting decisively to the Democratic Party. Obama carried Hispanics by 66 to 32, a vast improvement over Kerry's 58 to 43 margin. Because of widespread anger among Hispanics about how Republicans have handled the volatile immigration issue, this shift is unlikely to be a one-time affair. The loyalty of Hispanics is probably the decisive political battleground of the future; 12.5 percent of the population in 2000, Hispanics are expected to comprise nearly 20 percent of all Americans by 2020 and over 30 percent by 2050. Especially ominous for the Republican future was the vote among young Hispanics, who preferred Obama by the stunning margin of 76-19.
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3. Obama has broken definitively with the long-term pattern of Democratic dependence on states with a declining proportion of the electoral vote. Because of their relatively slow projected growth, such Democratic strongholds as New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, and Massachusetts are almost certain to lose electoral votes in 2012. In the absence of movement into rapidly growing Red states, this decline would over time have sapped the strength of the Democratic Party. But Obama shattered the Red-Blue divide, winning such rapidly growing states as Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada and running highly competitive races in several other Red states. Of greatest import in the long term, the Democrats have shown that they can compete in every region of the country, including the rapidly growing parts of the South and Mountain West. The same cannot be said of the Republicans in much of New England, the mid-Atlantic states, and the Pacific West.
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4. What demographers euphemistically call "generational replacement" will gradually erode the Republican base. McCain's greatest strength was among those over 65, among whom he beat Obama by 53 to 45 percent. Over time, however, the ranks of this age group will grow thinner and thinner. And the cohort that follows them, those between 45 to 64 are largely the Baby Boom generation. Despite the conservatizing effects of age, this is not a group the Republicans can count on.
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5. Obama did well among the swing voters whom the Democrats need to build a majority coalition, winning 52 percent of "independents" (who now comprise 29 percent of the electorate) and 60 percent of moderates. This compares favorably to Reagan's performance in 1980, when he won 55 percent of independents and only 49 percent of moderates. If these gains among independents and moderates can be sustained in 2012 and beyond, will not solidify a Democratic majority.
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6. Republicans have for some time been hemorrhaging support among the college-educated. This trend accelerated in 2008, with Obama winning 53 percent of college graduates. As recently as 1988, Republicans carried college graduates by 13 percent (56-43) -- a pattern that made sense given that Republicans have traditionally enjoyed wide support among middle and upper-middle class voters. But this pattern has been changing for two decades and reached a turning point this year. With college graduates voting far out of proportion to their numbers in the population and now constituting 45 percent of all voters, this is a group that Republicans simply cannot afford to lose.
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Together, these six trends suggest that the majority coalition that the Democrats put together in 2008 is likely to strengthen in the years ahead. True, some of the factors contributing to Obama's victory -- the extraordinary unpopularity of the Bush administration, the timing and sheer magnitude of the Wall Street meltdown, and Obama's remarkable persona charisma -- will not be transferable to other Democratic candidates. The roots of Democratic ascendance, however, extend beyond long-term demographic trends to the ideological crisis now facing the Republic Party, which has elevated an anti-government instinct to a matter of fundamental principle. Recent events have not been kind to this world view. For beginning with Hurricane Katrina and extending through the Wall Street debacle, the necessity of effective government as an agent of the common good - the core principle of progressive politics for more than a century -- has become increasingly obvious.
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Whether Obama and the Democrats take advantage of this once-in-a-generation opportunity to write a new chapter in the history of American progressivism remains to be seen, but the opportunity is there for the taking. If they do, 2008 may look in the long historical view much like 1980 -- a year in which an impressive victory well short of a landslide marked the beginning of a more fundamental realignment of American politics.
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*
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A superb analysis of what happened this past Tuesday, and the author makes a powerful argument that these trends will continue for some time. But history will show if this merely a blip like 1976 or a longterm trend like 1932.
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*****

More Statehouses with Democratic Majorities

Election 2008 was an election that showed broad increases for Democrats, and that was true also on the state level. Three states - DE, NY, and WI - now are fully Democratic, while two states - AK and MO - went from full Republican leadership to split leadership. All together, Democrats have the full control of 17 states; Republicans have control fully in eight state; and 25 have divisions in either one or more legislative houses and / or the office of governor.
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The recent elections gave Democrats a total of 29 governors with Republicans having 21, a change of one more for Democrats staring in 2009 as MO opted to go with a Democrat to replace a retiring Republican.
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States with a Democratic governor and Republican state legislatures include WY, MT, AZ, CA, NV, KS, OK, VA, TN, KY, MI, OH, and PA - a total of 13 states. States with a Republican governor and Democratic state legislatures include HI, AK, LA, MS, AL, IN, RI, CT, and MN. NE has a Republican governor and a uni-cameral non-partisan state legislature that generally takes on a Republican philosophy.
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2009 will be a year with just two gubernatorial elections - in Virginia and New Jersey. 34 states will hold elections for governor in 2010.
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http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?contentId=354086
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_Governors
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._state_legislatures
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*****

National Unemployment Numbers Soar

The sad thing about these statistics is that they do not tell the full story. If everyone that is not working is added to these numbers, including the underemployed (ME !); those only working parttime because they cannot get fulltime work; and those who have given up hope in finding work, the true number is somewhere between 15 and 20 %. And many economic experts foresee the official government number to go to 9 % in the coming months. That would mean the true numbers would be nearing some numbers of the Great Depression 75 years ago.
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*****

Mass Transit Ballot Questions Pass in CA, Seattle

Mass transit across the western US is still largely in its infancy, but increasingly citizens are showing a willingness to make public investments in projects in a number of diverse and even surprising areas. San Francisco and Portland have long been the leaders in mass transit across the western US, and in recent years Denver, Phoenix, Salt Lake, and Los Angeles have also started and completed projects to an extent with more to come. The recently completed election saw citizens throughout CA approve a measure for a high speed train system to link San Francisco and Sacramento with Los Angeles and San Diego. This is quite an ambitious endeavor that will take a number of years to complete and be fully realized. Voters in the Seattle metro area also approved a mass transit ballot measure that will further link the region together. Citizens of Santa Fe, NM also voted to expand mass transit. And hopes remain for a regional train connecting Albuquerque to Casper still becoming a reality in the next decade, as well as a high speed rail system from Anaheim to Las Vegas.
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http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-transportation6-2008nov06,0,1481126.story
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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/07/BAV6140IK5.DTL
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http://blog.wired.com/cars/2008/11/california-vote.html
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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/lightrailinitiative/2008357499_soundtransit06m.html
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http://www.progressiverailroading.com/news/article.asp?id=18549
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http://theoverheadwire.blogspot.com/2008/11/transit-election-results-central.html
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*****

07 November 2008

Latest on Undecided US Senate Races

One of the four yet to be determined United States Senate contests from Tuesday 3 November was settled on Thursday 5 November in Oregon where GOP incumbent US Senator Gordon Smith conceded defeat to Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. Merkley's victory gives Democrats 57 seats at this point for the upcoming 111th Congress to be sworn in and seated on 3 January 2009.
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Three other states still have results that remain to be finalized with outcomes uncertain.
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Georgia has the most orderly process in place as there will be a two candidate runoff election on Tuesday 2 December between Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss and Democratic challenger Jim Martin. Chambliss defeated Martin in the general election by over 111,000 votes but the presence of Libertarian Allen Buckley in the race and his amassing of over 127,000 votes, more than 3 % of the total, kept Chambliss from getting the required 50 % to win the election outright. A large number of campaigners from the Obama presidency are poised to come to The Peach State to lend their support and expertise to the Martin campaign, and i is anticipated Willard "Mitt" Romney, Mike Huckabee, and even Sarah Palin will come south to Georgia to campaign for Chambliss. Georgians are in for over three weeks of an intense besiegement from these two renewed campaigns.
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In Minnesota, GOP incumbent Norm Coleman leads Democratic challenger Al Franken by only 236 votes out of the over 2.861 million votes cast. A recount of all votes in the election will commence next week.
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And in Alaska, embattled GOP incumbent Ted Stevens leads Democratic challenge Mark Begich by 3353 votes out of the over 209,000 cast. It is expected that between 14,000 and 15,000 absentee ballots and military ballots remain to be to counted, which could take two weeks and perhaps longer. This seat will be in limbo for the time being.
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Democrats could win all three seats, giving them 60 in the US Senate. But it will take a reversal of results thus far in order for that to happen. Expect Republicans to retain at least one of these three and all three is certainly not out of the question.
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*****

06 November 2008

Update and Recap of Election 2008 Results

Election Day 2008 was a one of great historical significance. It was truly something special and amazing to witness and experience. One could describe it as a revolution that took place in a way. America took a giant step forward to realizing the promise and the dream of the ideals long known for what the nation is supposed to stand for. As Robert Reich said so eloquently and simply in his blog: "America, I am proud of you. And I am proud of us."
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Barrack Obama has been elected the 44th President of the United States of America. What a moment in history for all of mankind and Americans in particular.
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Most other election results are now final, over 24 hours after polls closed. But a few contests remain undecided at this moment. Many of these key undetermined races are for US Senate seats.
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OREGON: The Beaver State is horribly slow to count all ballots. At this late point only 79 % of precincts are reporting ! But at least the news is good at this time. In the race for the US Senate seat in Oregon, Democratic challenger Merkley has opened a margin of over 12,000 votes over Republican incumbent Smith of the over 1.444 million votes cast and counted thus far. The results have swayed from one candidate to the other over the last 29 plus hours, so a final result and winner is by no means a sure thing. Stay tuned.
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MINNESOTA: All 100 % of precincts are being shown as reporting. The US Senate race between GOP incumbent Coleman and Democratic challenger Franken is headed for a recount. At this moment, Coleman leads by just 477 votes out of over 2.861 million cast and counted. The third party candidate, independent Barkley, took 15 % of the votes cast which without question had a major role in how and why this vote turned out so close. It will be at least a few weeks before we know who will be certified by election authorities as having won this election in The Gopher State.
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GEORGIA: There will be a runoff election in the coming weeks for the US Senate seat in The Peach State. Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss just missed getting 50 % of the vote. Democratic challenger Martin ended with 47 %, and Libertarian Buckley got 3 %. So voters in Georgia will get to cast a vote again soon for just either Chambliss or Martin. It is this writer's guess that Chambliss will narrowly retain his seat when all is said and done.
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ALASKA: Clearly this is of the big shockers as voters in The Last Frontier stunningly chose to return longtime GOP incumbent Stevens, recently convicted in the last ten days of seven felony criminal convictions, back to the US Senate. With 99 % of precincts reporting, Stevens leads Democratic challenger Begich by 3353 votes out of over 209,000 cast and counted thus far. What also makes this strange is that with Stevens being re-elected, he will get to serve in the US Senate as it is certain he will be expelled from the institution by a strong majority of members from both parties. This could very well happen in the first week or so in January when the next US Senate is sworn in and seated.
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The fallout of all this overshadows another corrupt Alaskan politician also winning a close contest to return to the US House. GOP incumbent Young scored a win over Democratic challenger Berkowitz by less than 18,000 votes for a 52 - 44 margin.
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What will happen next is largely up for conjecture. Alaska Governor Palin could resign and have the new governor, current Lieutenant Governor Parnell, appoint her to fill Stevens' seat in the US Senate when the expected expulsion becomes official. Young could also be moved up to the Senate and Palin, or someone else, could be appointed to the US House at-large seat from AK that Young now and will continue to hold with his seemingly surprising win on Tuesday.
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If Minnesota, Oregon, and Georgin are not wacky and unbelievable enough, these circumstances that in play in Alaska now and down the road are one for the ages. Once again, stay tuned.
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IDAHO: We waited as long as we could early Wednesday 5 November morning to see this race through to the end, but it was not to be at that time. But it can now be reported as final. In what can only be called as a big upset, Democratic challenger Minnick scored a narrow win over first time GOP incumbent Sali in the contest for the First Congressional seat from all places, Idaho. The Gem State has been a deep and strong bastion of GOP strength for nearly 20 years and longer, so this result is nothing short of shocking. Minnick ended up winning by a little more than 4200 votes out of the nearly 347,000 cast and tallied. All 100 % of the precincts in this district are reporting. The victory in Idaho by Minnick splits the state's two member US House delegation evenly between the two parties for the first time in over 14 years.
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CALIFORNIA: In another surprising result, not one incumbent was ousted from the 53 races for the US House seats from The Golden State. At this moment, it appears that not one seat turned over from one party to the other, although results from District Four are somewhat close as the GOP candidate McClintock leads the Democratic candidate Brown by just 451 votes out over 311,000 cast and counted with 100 % of precincts reporting with the Republican incumbent having vacated the seat. It is highly unusual in an election of this magnitude not too have at least some change in a state with such an enormous delegation.
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NEW MEXICO: The 2008 election turned The Land of Enchantment to solid blue as Democrats swept rather easily all elective offices being contested, four in all. Outside of the New England states of MA, RI, CT, VT, and NH, NM is the only state in the Union that has an elected delegation in both houses of Congress that is completely Democratic. This turn of good fortune will pay off handsomely as NM can expect to do much better in getting additional federal dollars in the next few years for a wide and extensive variety of needs the state and its citizens are experiencing.
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WYOMING: The opposite of New Mexico is The not so Equality State, Wyoming. The voters in the state gave John McCain his largest margin of victory on Tuesday by a 66 - 32 spread that was even greater than in Idaho and Utah. Wyoming also sent three Republicans to Washington DC by tremendous margins. While the other states in the eight state Mountain States region are largely balanced in their representation to at least a minimum extent, Wyoming voters opted to not participate in the revolution on Tuesday. These decisions will come back to haunt them as the state will see little in the way of any federal dollars outside of for maintenance and repairs in national parks and other federal lands. Any hopes for federal monies to repair, improve, and upgrade Interstates 80, 25, and 90 are now gone as well as monies for water projects, education, and other infrastructural needs that are becoming increasingly pressing across the state. Wyoming is doomed to be a pariah in the next several years in the nation's capital and among its movers and shakers.

The only other delegation to Washington DC that is entirely Republican is from Alaska. Six of seven of the representation from Oklahoma is Republican and five of six from Kansas is Republican.
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THE SIX NEW ENGLAND STATES: The defeat of GOP incumbent Chris Shays in Connecticut's Fourth Congressional District also completely eliminates any GOP representation from the US House from this six state region. All 22 Congressman from the six states are Democrats, and 10 of the 12 US Senators from the region are Democrats, with only the two US Senators from Maine, Collins and Snowe, from across the aisle. This is a stunning turnaround for this region in just a generation, when the GOP once had a majority of federal legislative seats.
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THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REGION: The numbers from these five states (NY, NJ, PA, DE, and MD) are nearly as striking as those from the New England states region. 53 of this region's 70 US Representatives are going to be Democrats with the seating of the 111th Congress. In New York its 26 -3 Democrats and 7 -1 for Dems in Maryland. The delegation in the US Senate from this region is 9 -1 for Democrats with Specter from PA the sole Republican. Like New England, this region was once balanced between the two parties even as recently as less than two decades ago. No longer.
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THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES REGION: Changes tilting the balance of power more towards Democrats is also occuring in this part of the nation which consists of five states (VA, NC, SC, GA, and FL). There have huge changes in demographics in the last few decades in particular with many new residents in these states coming up from other parts of the nation, especially from the Northeast. The 111th Congress will consist of 36 Republicans and 32 Democrats, the closest spread since since before 1980. The delegation in the US Senate remains tilted towards Republicans with a 6 -4 edge, but it could turn even if Chambliss falls in GA in the upcoming runoff election.
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One additional item to consider is South Carolina, clearly the state least like the other four. Throw out the numbers from The Palmetto State and the Dems are tied in the Senate and trail the GOP by one in the House. South Carolina inevitably will change along the lines already seen in the other four states in the region in the coming decade and beyond as it gets discovered by outsiders.
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DIXIE / OLD CONFEDERACY: These seven states ( AL, MS, LA, TX, AR, TN, and KY) are characterized by an overwhelming strong Republican presence in both the US House and US Senate. 11 of 14 US Senators are Republicans with two of the Dems from Arkansas. In the US House, 39 of the 69 members of the next Congress will be Republicans, but throw out the numbers from TX and its almost even with 19 Repubs and 17 Dems which somewhat still reflects the historical traditional importance of Democrats in the region that goes back several generations.
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GREAT LAKES - RUST BELT STATES REGION: There are six states that make up this region: WV, OH, IN, MI, IL, WI, and MN. Democrats have considerable strength in these states as 11 of 14 US Senators ( or see Minnesota above) and 46 of 80 Representatives are Democrats. This region ranks fourth behind New England, Mid-Atlantic, and Pacific Coast in strength for Democrats.
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GREAT PLAINS STATES: Seven states are part of this region: OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, IA, and MO. The region moderates in its political views and outlook the further north one goes. The US Senate has nine Republicans and five Democrats with OK and KS having full GOP Senatorial delegations. 17 of the 28 US Congressman for the next Congress are Republicans. Next to the Dixie / Old Confederacy States region, this is the Republicans strongest area.
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MOUNTAIN STATES REGION: Long a bastion of GOP strength, results from recent elections are reversing this. For the first time in many years, Democrats will make up the majority of seats in the US Congress with 17 of the 28 seats in the next Congress being Democrats. This is a reversal from the 110th Congress. On the US Senate side, Republicans hold the edge narrowly with nine of the sixteen US Senators starting in 2009.
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PACIFIC WEST COAST STATES REGION: 46 of 70 congressional representatives and seven of ten Senators (or see Oregon above) in the next Congress will be Democrats, about a 2 -1 margin. Four of the five states of this region (CA, OR, WA, and HI) have a long tradition of being majority Democrat for the most part, while the other state Alaska is just the opposite.

Results for the US House still are yet to be determined in regard to what the final numbers for each party will be.
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And, in conclusion, clearly the best moment on Tuesday night Election night was when Barrack Obama told his daughters as his acceptance speech at Grant Park in Chicago that he loved them dearly and that they would be getting a puppy to come with them to The White House in January. Very touching and quite sweet bringing a smile to all including yours truly.
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*****

05 November 2008

Live Coverage of Election 2008, Part Four

2:01 am MST: VA was a state that was a place of change in the 2008 elections. The state voted for a Democrat for US President for the first time since 1964. Obama ended with about a 52 - 47 margin with about 1.791 million votes out of 3.426 million cast and counted so far. With 99 % of the precincts reporting, Obama had a margin of about 156,000 votes.

As was widely expected, Democratic challenger Mark Warner scored a decisive nearly 2-1 win over the GOP candidate Jim Gilmore to fill the seat being vacated by the retirement of longtime GOP stalwart John Warner, no relation to Mark Warner. This is one of about five pickups so far in the US Senate for the Democrats at this point. Mark Warner joins James Webb in the US Senate making Virginia's senators both Democrats for the first time since the 1960s.

The eleven seat Virginia congressional delegation will consist of five Republicans and five Democrats. One seat is still not decided in finality, but the Democratic challenger is leading the Republican incumbent by less than 1200 votes out of over 314,000 cast. The district has a full 100 % of its precincts reporting. This means two Republican incumbents went down to defeat in The Old Dominion. Democrats ended up gaining three seats in Virginia for the upcoming 111th United States Congress.

2:18 am: The results from Montana changed since they were last checked a few hours back. John McCain came back to win the state and claim its three electoral votes. At this time, 89 % of precincts had been counted in Big Sky Country, and McCain had over 208,000 votes or 51 %, to just under 188,000 or 46 % for Obama.

This changes the electoral college tally to 361 for Obama and 177 for McCain, and thats including MO as a McCain state.

2:23 am: Checking the latest results from WA shows incumbent Democratic Governor Gregoire has been projected as the winner over GOP challenger Rossi in a rematch from the contest between these two in 2004. With 51 % of precincts reporting, its 54 -46 for Gregoire as she has over 803,000 votes comparted to over 697,000 for Rossi.

No change from the earlier reported US House results as the Dems will have six or seven of the nine seats. Eight of the nine incumbents were winners, as the GOP incumbent representative losing in House District Eight at the moment with but 26 % of the precincts in that district reporting.

2:29 am MST: The race for the US Senate seat in OR currently held by GOP incumbent Smith still remains close and undecided. With 71 % of the precincts reporting at this moment, Smith has a lead of just over 4800 votes out of the over 951,000 counted thus far which is essentially a tie.

The results for the five US House from The Beaver State remains as before with four Dems and one Republican to be part of the next Congress just as there is for the current Congress ending in the coming weeks.

2:38 am: AK has some updated results, and they are surprising and unsettling. Incumbent GOP US Senator Stevens continues to hold a narrow lead in his quest to remain in the Senate despite his felony criminal conviction recently. At this moment, with 81 % of precincts reporting, Stevens leads his Dem challenger Begich by less than 4000 votes out of about 187,000 cast and counted thus far, for a margin of 48 - 46.

Republican incumbent US Congressman Young leads Democratic challenger Berkowitz by a 53 -44 margin or by less than 15,000 votes. It would appear Young will hold on to his seat.

If Stevens (in the US Senate since being appointed in late December 1968 to fill the seat of recently deceased AK US Senator and having been subsequently elected in 1970 and re-elected six more times) does win, it will set up a very comfortable confrontation. Leadership of the Senate, both Republican and Democratic, has vowed to expel him from the Senate if he tries to be seated in January's new Senate. An expulsion of Stevens could lead to Sarah Palin becoming the next US Senator from AK. Palin, currently governor of AK, could resign, and the succeeding governor, current Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell, could appoint her to fill out the near complete remaining term of Stevens if he is expelled or resigns. Quite a strange turn of events if it does come to pass.

2:55 am: Checking back on the First Congressional District race in ID shows at this point with 79 % of precincts reporting in that part of ID shows Dem challenger Minnick still leading GOP incumbent Sali by over 5500 votes out of more than 247,000 cast and counted thus far, giving the upset hopeful Democrat a slim 51.1 to 48.9 percent lead. Stay tuned.

2:59 am MST: Results from NV are now all final. The GOP incumbent from House District Two, Heller, did win re - election to that seat with a 52 - 41 margin of victory over Dem challenger Derby that broke down to a better than 170,000 to over 136,000 raw vote total for each candidate.

3:03 am: The number of popular votes on the national level shows the President - elect with over 61 million votes (61,621,079) to nearly 55,000,000 for John McCain (54,894,307).
This breaks down to a 52.89 % to 47.11 % totals for each.

3:10 am: Ohio was an important battleground state that was essential for McCain to win for him to have a chance to take the White House. But Obama won the state by over 200,000 votes out of over 4.9 million cast and counted so far for a 51 - 47 margin at this point. At this late hour Ohio is showing 95 % of its precincts reporting.

The eighteen member delegation in the US House from Ohio for the upcoming 111 United States Congress will consist of nine members of each party. Democrats picked up two seats from The Buckeye State, with one incumbent Republican losing and one seat being vacated by a Republican switching to Democratic representation. Among the incumbents winning was Congressman Dennis Kucinich, a Democrat from Cleveland who unsuccessfully ran for the Democratic nomination for President earlier this year and led the effort to get President Bush impeached unsuccessfully in recent months.

3:17 am: Like OH, PA was a state that McCain desperately needed to win to have any chance of gaining victory in the election. He really did not come close in spite of spending much time and resources in The Keystone State in the final months and weeks of this very long campaign. Obama won going away with a 55 - 44 margin of victory as he won by over 600,000 votes out of over 5.7 million cast and counted thus far.

PA will have twelve Democrats and seven Republicans in the next Congress. One Republican incumbent was defeated in The Keystone State which means the Dems picked up one seat in the US House from PA. Among the incumbents winning was Congressman Paul Murtha, a small bit of a surprise.

3:25 am: MN is going to be a photo finish for the race for the US Senate seat from The Gopher State. Republican incumbent Coleman had a narrow lead of less than 2600 votes out of the over 2.409 million cast and counted thus far. 99 % of MN precincts have reported at this moment. Stay tuned.

As for the eight US House seats from The Land of 10,000 Lakes, serve held form as five Democrats, all incumbents won; three Republicans, two of them incumbents, also were winners. So the delegation remains at 5 -3 for the Democrats.

3:32 am: Colorado had many ballot issues for voters to consider. One of the more important ones would have mandated that governments in The Centennial State end affirmative action. At this moment with 84 % of precincts reporting, the measure is barely losing by just over 15,000 votes out of the over 1.945 million cast and counted thus far. Amendment 50 which expanded gambling in CO was a winning issue, as was Amendment 54 which sets restrictions on campaign contributions from government sole-source contractors. All other amendments (a total of seven) and referendums ( three) went down to defeat in CO. Among the losers were some that involved questions of taxation sources and outlays.

In the contests for the Colorado State Senate, Democrats won 12 of the 18 seats being considered. The Colorado State House looks as if went 38 - 27 for Democrats.

3:52 am: The Wyoming State Legislature has been overwhelmingly Republican for many years and this election did not change that. The Wyoming State House appears as if it will hav 40 Republicans and 17 Democrats. The Wyoming State Senate had 20 seats up for election with Republicans winning 16 of them. Both houses of the Wyoming legislature will have veto proof majorities for Republicans to limit powers of sitting Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal.

One strongly disturbing story about these legislative elections in WY was that 34 of the 60 seats up for vote in the WY House were uncontested, and 11 of the 16 seats up for election in the WY Senate were also uncontested. Very sad and troubling.

4:04 am MST: Still no final results from ID in regard to that First Congressional District contest. Democratic challenger Minnick continues to hold a slim lead over GOP incumbent Sali with 90 % of the precincts reporting. Minnick had a lead of a little more than 4300 votes out of the over 297,000 cast and counted thus far. That works out to a 51 -49 percent margin at this point.

4:07 am: 99 % of precincts are now reporting in AK, and what seemed improbable has happened. Unless there are a lot of absentee and military ballots that are yet to be counted, incumbent GOP US Senator Stevens has scored a narrow win over Democratic challenger Begich by a little more than 3300 votes out over 209,000 cast and counted thus far. This sets up the big fight and possible subsequent turn of events I discussed earlier.

In the race for the at-large US House seat from AK, GOP incumbent Young has apparently won with a 52 - 44 margin over Dem challenger Berkowitz, a margin of less than 17,000 votes.

Could AK Lt Governor Parnell betray Palin in the scenario I discussed earlier and appoint Rep. Young to fill out Steven's seat, putting Palin into the House seat instead ? Stay tuned....

4:18 am: Preliminary results from CA show 34 of the 53 US House seats from The Golden State going to Democrats - no change from the current Congress and no CA incumbents losing.

With 86 % of precincts reporting from across CA, the highly charged Proposition 8 banning gay marriage is winning by a 52 - 48 margin or by about 335,000 votes out of 9.24 million votes already cast and counted thus far.

4:23 am: ND went for McCain over Obama by a 53 - 45 margin or by a better than 26,000 vote margin out of over 302,000 cast and counted thus far. It was thought by some in recent weeks that Obama could possibly win The Peace Garden State presidential vote.

The at - large US House seat remains in the hands of Dems as the incumbent Pomeroy wins over the GOP challenger Sand by almost 75,000 votes out of over 306,000 cast and counted thus far for a 62 - 38 margin.

The Republican Gubernatorial incumbent Hoeven easily won re-election with a 74 - 24 rout of the Democratic challenger Mathern, with a margin of over 157,000 votes out of over 302,000 cast and counted thus far.

4:29 am MST: At this point CNN is projecting the US House to have 251 Democrats, 173 Republicans, and 11 seats still undecided. Thats a pick up of just 16 seats for the Democrats thus far, less than what many estimated including yours truly.

4:33 am: There were eleven contests for governorships across the nation on Election Day, and Democrats won seven of those contests. Republicans were winners in UT, ND, IN, and VT; while Democrats won WA, MT, MO, WV, NC, DE, and NH. The only seat that turned over was in MO.

4:36 am: The contest in MN between Coleman and Franken remains razor tight at this moment with Coleman, the GOP incumbent, leading Franken, the Dem challenger, by 676 votes out of over 2.86 million cast and counted thus far. A third party candidate, Independent Barkley, has amassed 15 % of the vote with over 437,000 votes thus far. Barkley has certainly had an impact on this election.

4:41 am: KS went Republican as expected with a even a US House seat switching over from a Dem representative to an Republican one in what is a rare case in this election. Incumbent GOP US Senator Roberts won re-election by a 60 - 37 margin over Democratic challenger Slattery.

4:44 am: Republicans won convincingly across OK for federal offices as the GOP incumbent Inhofe scored a 57 - 39 win over Dem challenger Rice to keep his US Senate seat. The Repubs also kept their margin in the US House from the state by taking four of the five US House seats as incumbents won all five contests in The Sooner State.

4:48 am: TX remained a solid cradle of Republicanism as McCain won the state's presidential vote 55 -44; incumbent GOP US Senator Cronyn won re - election over Dem challenger Noriega by a 55 -43 margin; and Republicans picked up one US House seat by ousting the Democratic incumbent in the 22nd House District to increase the party's margin in the delegation to 20 - 12. Eight of the US House seats in TX were uncontested, with the GOP the winner of six. One of those contests saw former candidate for the Republican nomination for President, Ron Paul, win again.

4:55 am: Little change in the numbers from ID as now 95 % of precincts are reporting. Democratic challenger Minnick continues to hold a slim lead over GOP incumbent for that First Congressional District from The Gem State. Minnick leads by more than 43oo votes out of nearly 328,000 cast and counted thus far. This translates to a narrow 51 - 49 margin.

4:58 am: The race in OR between incumbent GOP US Senator Smith and Dem challenger Merkley remains close with 74 % of precincts in The Beaver State reporting. Smith leads by a little more than 10,000 votes out over 1.09 million cast and counted thus far. Stay tuned.

5:01 am: MI went for Obama for President, and returning incumbent Dem Levin back to the US Senate by comfortable margins.

The 15 US House seats from The Wolverine State switched to a Democratic majority for the delegation as two Republican incumbents were defeated to make it 8 -7 for the Dems. Among the Dem winners were John Dingell, returning to the House for a 28th term as he has been in DC representing Michigan since 1955; and John Conyers, first elected in 1962 and returning for a 24th term in the US House.

What is additionally amazing about Dingell is that his father, John Dingell, Sr, served the same congressional district in MI from 1933 to 1955. That means this district, which makes up the SW suburbs of Detroit, has been in the same family for 75 years and will continue to until Dingell, Jr probably passes away sometime in the next decade or two.

What a dynasty, and one that has greatly benefitted middle class and poor Americans thankfully.
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5:16 am: Well, the Mountain Time Zone Perspective Blog is going to wrap up its coverage in the next several minutes after being on the job for over ten and one - half hours largely uninterupted.

5:18 am: Results from AK remain the same as recently discussed.

5:19 am: In ID, Minnick leads by over 4500 votes over Sali with 98 % of precincts in. It looks like a Dem pickup in The Gem State for the US House and an increase in the lead for Dems from the eight state Mountain States region to a 17 - 11 margin, a reversal from the current Congress.

5:23 am: Coleman leads Franken in MN by 757 votes out of over 2.857 million cast and counted thus far. Stay tuned.

5:25 am: Time to call it quits for the long night into morning. Employment responsibilities for this writer loom in about nine hours. A complete and final update will be published on this blog after 12:30 am on early Thursday morning 6 November following my employment obligations on WED 5 November afternoon and evening.

*****

04 November 2008

Live Coverage of Election 2008, Part Three

11:01 pm MST: In WY, GOP challenger Lummis wins the at - large US House seat in The Cowboy State, defeating Democratic candidate Trauner by a 53 - 43 margin or by about 25,000 votes to fill the seat being vacated by the retiring Republican Barbarba Cubin, a seven term incumbent. This is a disappointment for WY as its entire delegation will just the opposite of NM, entirely Republican. Outside of monies for national parks and other federal lands, not much money will be coming into WY particularly for transportation, water projects, and education with these developments. Sitting Governor Dave Freudenthal will have be the voice in Washington DC to help WY get a bigger share of the federal pot for projects and investments long overdue and ignored by the state's congressional and senatorial delegation, particularly roads and highways, mass transit, improvements and upgrades concerning public lands, and assistance and incentives for developments of alternative clean energy sources such as wind and solar which are incredible abundance across The Equality State.

The final numbers from the voting for the Presidency from citzens voting in WY ended up with a McCain margin of 66 -32 or by over 80,000 votes out of over 236,000 cast. Obama only carried two of the 23 counties in the state: Albany in SE Wyoming where the University of Wyoming is; and Teton in NW Wyoming where the wealthy and enlightened enclave of Jackson Hole lies. In some WY counties, McCain got over 80 % of the vote.

11:18 pm: The contest in Minnesota for the US Senate seat between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken remains extremely close at this point. With 78 % of precincts reporting in MN, Coelman has a 6000 vote lead.

The delegation in the US House will likely be 5 -3 in favor of Democrats, but two seats that are held by incumbent Republicans remain closely contested with about 70 - 80 % of precincts reporting in each of those two districts at this moment. A comeback win by the Dem challengers in those two districts remains a possibility.

11:25 pm: In NV, Obama leads McCain 57 -41 or by over 129,000 votes with 40 % of precincts reporting from across The Silver State. The state remains unprojected at the moment.

Results are slow to come in from rural outlying NV as only 22 % of the precincts that cover the state that makes up the Second Congressional District are reporting. In that contest, the incumbent GOP Heller leads the Dem challenger Derby by about 11,000 votes or by a 49 -44 margin. In District One, the incumbent Dem Berkley has won re-election easily, while in the Third District, the Democratic challenger Titus leads the GOP incumbent Porter by more than 19,ooo votes or by a 48 -42 margin with 54 % of precincts in that congressional district reporting.

11:32 pm: New Mexico is moving towards close full completion of votes being counted rather early compared to what is transpired historically as the number of precincts reporting has passed the 90 % mark across the state and in all three congressional districts. The three Dem challengers continue to lead comfortably and its becoming all but a sure thing they will all win, resulting in a pickup of two seats in the US House for Democrats. Tom Udall cruised to an easy win for the open US Senate seat by about a 60 - 40 margin as he has a better than 135,000 vote lead with 93 % of precincts reporting across NM at this moment.

11:36 pm: Dem incumbent Governor Gregoire continues to lead GOP challenger Rossi; at this moment with 43 % of precincts reporting, the margin is by over 46, 000 votes or by a 53- 48 margin.

11:40 pm: CA has an enormous 53 seat delegation in the US House of Representatives, over 12 percent of the total national number of representatives. Results at this moment are still in the very early stage with some seats showing zero votes being counted still almost three hours after the polls close in The Golden State. Thus, it is much too soon to make any kind of conclusions from the votes cast across the state for this congressional delegation. It is likely a somewhat final analysis will not be presented on this blog until sometime early THR 5 November am.

11:47 pm: The races for Congress in AZ ended as they were anticipated earlier with a 5 - 3 edge in the delegation for Democrats, an increase of one. The First Congressional District than covers much of eastern and northern AZ switched over to the Dems with Kirkpatrick beating Hay by around a 55 -40 margin or by over 35,000 votes with 96 % of precincts reporting.

Two ballot issues of interest in AZ both won comfortably: The statewide ban on gay marriage, and the clarification of language in the state constitution and state laws when addressing issues concerning illegal aliens and employment.

11:52 pm: SD saw victories by incumbent Democrats for contested seats in the US Senate and US House. Incumbent Johnson was an easy winner by about a 63 -37 margin or by more than 88,000 votes over Repub challenger Dykstra. In the race for the at-large seat, incumbent Dem Sandlin has scored a wide victory by a 68 -32 margin or by over 125,000 votes.

A controversial ballot issue in The Coyote State went down to defeat as limits for abortions were not chosen by SD voters by about a 55 - 45 margin or by about 35,000 votes.

In the voting for president among SD voters, John McCain took about 54 % of the vote as compared to 44 % for Barack Obama, with McCain having about a 33,000 vote edge.

12:00 Midnight: Results continue to come in rather slowly from OR, as at the moment just 43 % of precincts have reported. Dem challenger Merkley leads Repub incumbent Smith by about 3800 votes in the US Senate contest. It is unclear as to when a decision may come into view.

12:05 am: NE did indeed have all three GOP incumbents hold their seats in the US House, and Johanns took the US Senate seat by a 58 -40 margin. Ben Nelson will remain the sole Democrat in Washington DC from Nebraska as an elected official.

12:10 am: Like NV and OR, results are slow to come in from ID. In the race for the First Congressional District, Dem challenger Minnick leads GOP incumbent Sali by a 52 - 48 margin or by less than 6000 votes with 50 % of precincts reporting. Lets hope we get a result in the next two to three hours. In the US Senate race from ID, GOP challenger Risch has been declared the winner over Dem candidate LaRocco, keeping this seat in Republican hands after the retirement of Larry Craig.

12:14 am: Across the Mountain States region, Democrats have picked up seats in the US House of Representatives from the following: one in AZ, one in CO, and two in NM. MT, UT, and WY will remain the same with no changes in political party representation. Two seats remain unsettled in NV, and one in OR.

Going into the election, Republicans held 17 of the 28 seats from the Mountain States region in the US House of Representatives. These new results have now led to the 28 member delegation switching to a 15 - 13 Democratic majority, and an 18 - 10 differential still remains a possibility.

As for the US Senate, Democrats hold two seats from CO, MT, and NM; one seat from NV; and none in AZ, ID, UT, and WY. This election's results mean the Senatorial delegation from the eight state region will be 9 -7 in favor of Republicans, an increase of two for Democrats, and the closest margin since the late 1970s.

Four senators will be up for re-election in 2010, in what is called a Senate Class III election Those senators from the eight state Mountain States region are Republican John McCain from Arizona; Democrat Ken Salazar from Colorado; Republican Mike Crapo from Idaho; and Republican Robert from Utah. Salazar and Crapo will run for re-election and are strongly likely to be returned to the Senate at this point, while it is unclear at this moment what the plans are for McCain and Bennett as far as running again. McCain will be 74 and Bennett 77 in 2010, and retirements by one or both are possible. The race to replace a retiring McCain could be a real horse race in AZ, while in UT sitting governor Huntsman may be opt to make the move up as well as several other noteworthy Beehive State Republicans. Utah will almost surely keep the Senate seat in GOP hands, while a change to Democrats is a possibility in AZ. It is difficult to imagine Crapo being ousted unless a major unforeseeable circumstance eventuates. Thus the delegation from the Mountain States region should remain as a Republican majority or at worst evenly split between the two parties two years from now.

12:37 am: The polls have been closed in AK for over one and one-half hours now, and results are coming, although rather slowly but not unexpectedly given the size and vastness of The Last Frontier. John McCain leads Barack Obama 58 -40 or by over 24,000 votes with 45 % of the precincts reporting. In the US Senate race, the GOP incumbent Ted Stevens, a recently convicted criminal felon, has a small lead over Dem challenger Begich by a 49 - 46 margin or by 4400 votes. In the US House race for the at - large seat, the incumbent Repub Young leads the Dem challenger Berkowitz by a 52 -44 margin or by about 9300 votes. Hopefully most of the votes will come in over the next three plus hours before this reporter calls it a night.

12:43 am: MO remains a very close race for the presidency as at even this late hour the race is all but deadlocked. 99 % of precincts are reporting from The Show Me State, and McCain leads Obama at this moment by less than 400 votes out over 2.85 million cast. A recount may become eventually necessary here.

A seat in the US Senate was not up for re-election in MO, but as usual the entire congressional representation was up for vote. The nine member MO congressional representation will stand with five Republicans and four Democrats for the 2009 - 2010 Congress, the 111th United States Congress.

12:51 am: US Representative Chris Shays of CT went down to defeat tonight, and that means there are no Republicans whatsoever in the US House from the six state New England region. This is a marked change for this region from just a few decades ago when it was a strong GOP represented region.

12:55 am: IN has remained close all night in that state's contest for the presidency. Obama will apparently win the state as he has a 23,000 vote lead over McCain with 99 % of precincts reporting as over 2.68 million votes have been cast in The Hoosier State.

Like MO, IN had no senatorial election this year. The nine member Indiana congressional delegation will remain the exactly same for 2009 with 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans. All nine are incumbents and were re-elected by at least comfortable or wide margins.

1:02 am: FL, the nation's fourth most populous state, was viewed as yet again a battleground state that would largely come down to the wire as the vote for President was concerned, and it did not disappoint. Obama squeaked out a two percentage points victory over McCain, winning by about 200,000 votes out of 8.125 million cast to claim the state's 27 electoral votes.

The 25 member Florida delegation for the 111th United States Congress starting in January 2009 will consist of 15 Republicans and 10 Democrats. Two Congressional Republican incumbents and one Democratic congressional incumbent went down to defeat in The Sunshine State, resulting in an increase of one Democrat for the state's next congressional delegation beginning in January 2009.

The ballot issue in FL to ban gay marriage passed easily by a 62 - 38 margin.

1:20 am: NC was another state that went deep into the night before a winner emerged for the state's electoral votes which totalled 15. Over 4.19 million votes were cast, and Obama ended up with a margin of just over 12,000 votes.

Democratic challenger Kay Hagen ended up winning the US Senate seat by a 53 -44 margin over GOP incumbent Elizabeth Dole, wife of longtime Republican Kansas Senator and 1996 GOP Presidential nominee Bob Dole.

The thirteen seat delegation to US House from NC for the next Congress will consist of eight Democrats and five Republicans. All 13 incumbents ran for re-election with only one, the Republican from the Eighth Congressional District, being defeated. Thus, NC will see an increase of one Democrat to the state's delegation.

1:33 am: 50 minutes ago Obama held a tiny lead over McCain in MO. More votes have been tabulated since then, and at this moment the lead has switched over to McCain. His lead is a little less than 5000 votes, 1.440 million to 1.435 million. I will keep an eye on this and update it again in the second half of the 2am MST hour.

1:37 am: Numbers from NV continue to trickle for the contest for the Second Congressional District. Only 42 % of precincts hve currently reported, but projections are giving the race to GOP incumbent Heller over the Dem challenger Derby. The other two races are final. Earlier Dem incumbent Berkley won easily in District One, and now results from the Third Congressional District show Dem challenger Titus has upset three term GOP incumbent Porter by a 48 - 42 margin or by about 18,000 votes. This is yet another pick up for the Democrats for the US House and gives the party 16 seats in the 28 seat delegation from the eight state Mountain States region.

In the presidential race from NV, Obama won easily. With 73 % of the precincts reporting now, the President - elect has a 56 -42 lead over McCain, with over 513,000 of the over 903,000 cast and counted so far.

1:44 am: Its taking a long time to count votes in ID. The race for the First Congressional race remains undecided. With 72 % of the precincts reporting, Dem challenger Minnick continues to lead GOP incumbent Sali by about 44oo votes out of over 233,000 cast and counted so far. That is a margin of 51 -49.

1:47 am: HI is the state that gives the President - elect his widest margin of victory over John McCain. With 99 % of precincts reporting, Obama has a 72 - 27 margin with over 298,000 votes out of about 409,000 cast, a difference of about 188,000.

The two member House delegation from The Aloha State will remain both Democratic as both incumbents won by overwhelming landslide margins.

1:51 am: It now appears the final electoral college totals will end up as 364 for Obama and 174 for McCain. Thats a better than 2 - 1 margin of victory for the President - elect. The 11 electoral votes now in the McCain category could still spill back to McCain, resulting in changing the scoreboard to 375 to 163, nearly 70 % for Obama.

The question now is, is this a landslide and a mandate ?

That is going to be the subject of much debate and discussion over the coming weeks and months.

1:56 am: I will start a new post with more new entries at the top of the 2:00 MST hour. The title of the post will remain about the same but end with words, "Part Four".

*****

Live Coverage of Election 2008, Part Two

8:58 pm: A huge win for Obama as CNN projects VA for him, first time The Old Dominion goes Democratic in 44 years.

9:00 pm MST: Barrack Obama is elected President of the United States !!!

9:02 pm: What a moment as the images from Chicago's Grant Park are being seen around the globe for all of mankind to witness... what a profound moment in history ! 232 years after the Declaration of Independence, a Black is elected President of the United States -- what an amazing moment for everybody ! Martin Luther King and Paul Robeson are beaming from up above to America below...

9:o4 pm: Markey leads Musgrave by 57 -42 with 61 % in for the Fourth Congressional District seat in CO ( northern and eastern part of state and Northern Front Range).

9:09 pm: US House races and governor race in UT going as expected. GOP incumbent Huntsman winning re-election easily as UT governor; two GOP and 1 Dem winning US House seats by easy margins.

9:12 pm: In WY, with 65 % of precincts reporting, GOP candidate Lummis leads Democrat Trauner by 5800 votes for states at-large US House seat.

9:14 pm: Many are saying we are at the point where the promise and hope that America has been in history is being restored... the reason why our ancestors made the choice to immigrate from their home countries to America a century or more ago without anything but a dream and inspiration...

9:15 pm: For those interested in the numbers, CNN has it 297 - 139 for the electoral votes, with MO, IN, NC, and FL still unprojected along with a couple of Western states: MT, NV, and AZ with polls still to close in the Great White North, AK, where Palin will go back to the darkness, cold, and snow where we won't have to see or hear of her for a couple of years hopefully !

9:18 pm: The McCain concession speech will be a great one, one that will stir the heart. He should have elected in 2000 instead of the deadbeat Bush.

9:24 pm: In TX, incumbent Republican Cronyn leads Democrat Noriega by 54 - 44 with about two-thirds of the precincts reporting for the US Senate seat in The Lone Star State.

9:25 pm: In spite of his defeat, McCain is still a hero and legend. It was just the wrong moment in history for him to become President as has been so often been the case for other men aspiring to the office... What a gentleman with dignity and elegance. We all richer for having had him as a public figure in our lives...

9:29 pm MST: In OR, with 22 % of the precincts reporting, Dem challenger Merkley leads GOP incumbent Smith by a 50 -44 margin. If this lead holds, this would be another Dem pickup in the US Senate.

9:33 pm: Obama speech coming up in a matter of minutes...

9:34 pm: Democrat Teague continues to lead Republican Tinsley by a 52 - 48 margin (4600 votes) in 3rd NM Congressional race with 65 % of precincts reporting.

9:35 pm: In WY, with 76 % of precincts reporting, GOP Lummis leads Dem Trauner by 8700 votes (50 - 42) in race for US House seat. It appears Lummis will keep this a GOP seat, unfortunately which means highways and roads in WY will continue to go to pot and not be modernized for safety and congestion.

9:41 pm: Electoral votes are 338 to 155 with MT, MO, IN, and NC. AK still to close. FL has been projected as an Obama win.

9:43 pm: In ID, Democratic challenger Minnick is leading GOP incumbent Sali for the First Congressional District seat by 54-46 with 14 % of precincts in. If this holds, it would be a Democratic pickup in the US House.

9:48 pm: In MN, Dem challenger Al Franken leads GOP incumbent Norm Coleman by just 316 votes with 46 % of precincts reporting. I would guess precincts from the Twin Cities have largely yet to report relative to rural MN, so its looking good for another Dem pickup in the US Senate.

9:53 pm: If polling remains as anticipated and results underway stay the same to the end, it now appears as if the US Senate will end up at 57 - 41 in favor of the Democrats, with independents in VT (Sanders) and CT (Lieberman). GA is still yet to be firmly determined, while incumbents Cronyn, Wicker, and McConnell have evidently clearly won in TX, MS, and KY, respectively. Results are still being tabulated in MN and OR with AK yet to come with GOP incumbent and criminally convicted felon Stevens expected to lose.

9:58 pm: Obama is coming out to speak with his family beside him...

10:00 pm MST: In ID, Republican challenger Risch is leading Dem challenger LaRucco by a 55 -37 margin with 14 % of precincts reporting to fill the US Senate seat being vacated by Republican sex offender Larry Craig. This should be a hold for the GOP in the US Senate.

10:03 pm: In NM, results are slowly coming as usual, and in the contest for the First Congressional District to fill the seat vacated by GOP Wilson, Dem challenger Heinrich is leading Republican challenger White by a 58 - 42 margin with 35 % of precincts reporting. If this holds, this would be a Dem pickup for the US House. In the Second District with 76 % of precincts in, Dem challenger Teague continues to lead Repub challenger Tinsley 53 -47 or by over 7100 votes.

10:08 pm: In AZ, Shadegg will win the Third Congressional District for another term; and in the 1st district, Dem challenger Kirkpatrick leads Repub challenger Hay 54 -42 or by over 23,000 votes with 63 % of precincts in. The other six congressional district contests in The Grand Canyon State all went as expected with incumbents winning ( 4 Dems, 2 Repubs). The AZ congressional districts delegation looks as if it will 5 -3 Dems, a big turnaround from years past.

10:12 pm: In CO, in the Fourth Congressional District race, Dem challenger Markey leads GOP incumbent Musgrave 57 -43 or by about 34,000 votes with 70 % of precincts reporting. It appears the Democrats will be successful here in picking up this seat in the US House which will have the CO congressional districts delegation at 5-2 Democrats, a reversal from just a few years ago.

10:16 pm: In MT, Obama has the lead over McCain 51 -46 or by 8500 votes with 34 % of precincts reporting. Baucus easily wins re-election to the US Senate by at least a 3 - 1 margin; and Rehberg will return to the US House as he leads his Dem challenger Driscoll 62-35 or by over 48,000 votes with 35 % of precincts reporting. Popular Democratic populist incumbent Brian Schweitzer is also winning by a broad margin, 68 -30 or 69,000 votes with 35 % of precincts reporting.

10:22 pm: In MN, Coleman has about a 15,000 vote lead over Franken with 56 % of the precincts in The Land of 10,000 Lakes reporting. Still too close and too early to know the winner.

10:25 pm: In ID, Minnick continues to lead Sali, now by a 53 - 47 margin with 24 % of precincts reporting across The Gem State for the First Congressional District. District Two will go easily as expected to the GOP incumbent Simpson as he leads the Dem candidate Holmes by a 76 -34 margin or by over 41,000 votes with 34 % of precincts reporting.

10:29 pm: In NV results are still in the early stage for the three key House races being contested. District One has already seen the Dem incumbent Berkley projected as a winner as she leads by a 69 -27 margin or about 78,000 votes with 39 % of the precincts reporting. In District Two, just 16 % of precincts are in and Repub incumbent Heller leads Dem challenger Derby by about 5900 votes or a 48 -45 margin. In Distict Three incumbent Repub Porter trails Dem challenger Titus by a 50 - 40 margin or by about 23,000 votes with just 6 % of precinct reporting. These three races will be updated at least once per half-hour.

10:36 pm: In NE, McCain will carry the state by about a 57 -43 margin over Obama. In the US Senate race in The Cornhusker State, GOP challenger Johanns will take the seat by around 58 -42 over Dem challenger Kleeb for the seat being vacated by Repub Chuck Hagel, a strong vocal opponent of George Bush, who is retiring. NE has three congressional districts, and the GOP incumbent will win easily in Districts One and Three; in District Two, the Repub incumbent Terry has a narrow 51 - 49 lead or is ahead by 5300 votes with 61 % of precincts reporting. This race will be updated later on this blog.

10:42 pm: In OR, the race for the US Senate seat being contested by challenger Dem Merkley against Repub incumbent Smith is very close: with 40 % of the precincts reporting, Merkley leads by less than 800 votes or a 48 -47 margin. Another race to keep tabs on over the next few hours.

The OR US House delegation will consist of four Democrats and one Republican after today's elections.

10:46 pm: In WA, incumbent Dem Governor Gregoire leads Repub challenger Rossi by a 52 -48 margin or by about 37,000 votes with 43 % of precincts reporting. This is a rematch between these two opponent from 2004.

The WA US House delegation for 2009 - 2010 will consist of seven Democrats and two Republicans, a change from the current 6 -3 Democratic margin.

A controversial ballot issue in The Evergreen State to allow doctor-assisted suicide is passing by a 58 - 42 margin with 43 % of precincts reporting.

10:52 pm: In NM it is appearing that all three US House seats being contested will be won by Democrats as Heinrich leads White 57 -43 or by over 32,000 votes with 63 % of precincts reporting in District One; Teague continues to lead Tinsley 55 - 45 or over 17,000 votes with 87 % of precincts reporting in District Two; and Lujan has won over East by about a 54 -33 margin or over 42,000 votes with 93 % of precincts reporting in District Three. This would represent a pickup of two seats in the US House for the Democrats, and will leave the entire Senatorial and Congressional delegation from NM as Democrats, highly unusual anywhere, let alone in a state in the Mountain West as Udall won the open US Senate seat being vacated by the retiring Pete Domenici, and Democrat Jeff Bingaman has held the other US Senate seat from NM since the early 1980s, which now makes him the senior federal legislative member from The Land of Enchantment with the retirement of Domenici.

10:57 pm MST: I will create a new post for the blog with new entries in it starting at the top of the 11pm MST hour. It will have the words, "Part Three", on the end of the post title.

*****

Live Coverage of Election 2008

I am sorry to be getting started a little later than I had previously announced, but to be honest the results until just several minutes ago were nothing of overwhelming significance yet.

6:39 pm MDT: CNN projects PA for Obama; A huge win for the Dems and a jolting setback for the GOP and McCain. An Obama win seems all but certain now as CNN has also projected NH for Obama.

6:42 pm MDT: Results from KY show an increasing possibility Mitch McConnell will go down to defeat as the voting trends and results continue to come in.

6:44 pm MDT: Here is what we know so far: McCain has won SC, KY, TN, OK. Obama has won most everywhere he is supposed to have across the Northeast and Great Lakes region. States that remain to be projected are VA, NC, AR, GA, FL, IN, MO, OH, MS, WV, and AL. The trends for Obama thus far are strongly promising. Senate races are going as expected with Dems ahead in VA, NH, and NC. NC has not been declared a Dem win yet for challenger Kay Hagen over GOP incumbent Elizabeth Dole.

6:49 pm MDT: At the moment CNN had Obama with 102 - 34 electoral votes lead. Can a Democratic landslide be in the making ?...

6:51 pm: Analysis shows a stronger than expected showing in many rural counties by Obama as compared to Kerry four years ago in such states as FL, VA, OH, and IN. Votes from urban areas in those states have yet to come in which will be strongly for Obama. I would not be surprised to see Obama carry all four states.

6:53 pm: Kay Hagen declared the winner in NC by CNN for the US Senate seat, a big Democratic pickup. Hagen running stronger than even Obama in the Tarheel State. Democrats have made three pickups thus far in the US Senate with results still to come from MN, CO, NM, OR, AK, MS, GA, KY, and TX -- all that could end up as Dem pickups as well.

6:57 pm: Polls close momentarily in 15 states, including four in the Mountain States region -- CO, NM, WY, and AZ.

6:58 pm: CNN declares McCain will win AL. 9 electoral votes; not really a surprise at all.

7:01 pm MDT: Obama takes MI, WI, MN, RI, and NY giving him 174 electoral votes. McCain takes WY and ND, giving him 49 electoral votes. Nines states not projected. ND was thought be in play but the McCain support must have turned out stronger that the polls were seeing.

7:03 pm: Exit polls showing racism not a factor in voting patterns across the nation. Very good news.

7:05 pm: Obama has swept the Northeast. Jeanne Shaheen declared the winner in NH Senate contest, knocking off GOP incumbent John Sununu . Tom Udall declared the winner in NM. Both are Democratic pickups, giving them a total of four so far.

7:07 pm: So far no big surprises from this perspective. Most everything has gone to form as was predicted by this writer, based on the polling and information that was out there.

7:09 pm: Vermont going for the Republican Douglas over Democrat Symington in the governors contest. Jay Rockefeller winning handily in WV for re-election to US Senate as expected.

7:11 pm: I expect FL to be projected for Obama immenently. A big 27 electoral votes for the Dems. OH and VA also look like they will go for Obama based on vote totals so far.

7:12 pm: CNN projects GA for McCain. This state was thought to may be possible for Obama. 15 more electoral votes for McCain, now behind 174 -64.

7:15 pm MDT: In MO governor's contest, Democrat Nixon has lead with about ten percent of vote counted. This may be the only change that happens nationally in governorships.

7:19 pm: CNN projects re-election of McConnell in KY with 65 % of vote in. Too bad.

7:20 pm: Fivethirtyeight.com predicts a 311 - 163 electoral vote win for Obama with four states still seen as toss ups: FL, IN, NC, and MO.

7:21 pm: The question of Obama coattails in this election remains open to conjecture and discussion still at this point.

7:22 pm: CNN projects the five electoral votes in WV for McCain. Not a surprise. Makes the current total at 174 - 69. McCain has not won any states as of yet behind what was strongly expected.

7:24 pm: ABC News projects Ohio for Obama. 20 more electoral votes for the Dem nominee. This gives Obama 194 total electoral votes. He will go over the top at 9:oo MST hour for sure, if not earlier, with the electoral votes from CA, WA, OR, and HI that will start to be announced then.

7:27 pm: Barrack Obama will be elected President of the United States. This is an epic moment in history for the nation itself as well as mankind. We have come an amazingly long way as a people in this nation in just my lifetime. The speech coming up later by Obama will be an incredible moment, quite emotionally stirring to the hearts and souls of many.

7:30pm MST: ABC News declares the 10 electoral votes in LA for John McCain, making it 194 - 79 for Obama.

7:34 pm: CNN also declares OH for Obama.

7:37 pm: ABC News has declared KS and AR for McCain, not surprises. McCain hits the 90 electoral vote threshold which means he will not be kept in double figures when its all totalled up and official.

7:40 pm: At the Arizona Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix where McCain is waiting, they are keeping recent results from the attendees and partygoers at the ballroom in the hotel.

7:41 pm: Mark Udall declared the winner in the US Senate race in CO, joining his cousin Tom from NM as freshman senators to be in the seating of the Senate coming up in January.

7:44 pm: Republican Perdue leading Democrat McCrory in contest for governor in NC. Democrat Lynch winning for governor in NH easily.

7:48 pm: CNN declares LA for McCain and NM for Obama. CNN puts the electoral vote at 199 - 78 for Obama per their projections. ABC News has it at 200 - 130.

7:51 pm: Markey winning easily over Musgrave in Fourth Congressional District in CO with one-third of vote in.

7:52pm: GOP stalwart William Bennett declares tonight as "The perfect storm for Obama and the perfect storm against McCain" on CNN.

7:54 pm: Rocky Mountain News declares Obama has won CO and its nine electoral votes. No swing or battleground states have gone for McCain at all so far.

7:57 pm: Awaiting poll closures in IA, MT, NV, and UT on the hour.

7:58 pm: MN senate race between Coleman and Franken largely even thus far.

8:01 pm MST: CNN projects IA for Obama; UT and KS for McCain. CNN has electoral vote at 206 - 89. Fourteen states still unprojected at this moment, including FL, VA, IN, NC, MO, and TX at this point by CNN.

8:03 pm: National totals on popular vote show Obama with about a 50 -49 edge at this point. Expect this to widen as the evening goes along. 54 or 55 percent nationally for Obama is the probable final result.

8:04 pm: ABC News has it 207 -135 for Obama in electoral votes.

8:05 pm: Joe Manchin winning re-election very easily in WV for governor. Jeff Sessions winning by a 3 -2 margin for re-election to the US Senate from AL.

8:08 pm: With about two-thirds of precincts reporting in GA, incumbent GOP US Senator Chambliss leads Dem challenger Martin by 56-42.

8:10 pm: Maine Republican incumbent Susan Collins wins re-election by about 56 -44 percent margin.

8:11 pm: CNN projects six electoral votes from AR for McCain; not a surprise. Makes the scoreeboard at CNN at 207 - 95.

8:12 pm: CNN shows US Senate at 54 -36 for Democrats with ten seats still to be decided. It now seems unlikely the Dems will get to 60, let alone break it. It also been reported that Lieberman will officially defect to the Republicans in the coming weeks, keeping the fillibuster rule still in place if the Dems do not get to 60. A very significant development if it does come to pass.

8:15 pm: Republican Lamar Alexander winning re-election in TN for the US Senate with a 68 -29 lead at this point. Enzi and Barrasso winning in WY by better than 3 -1 margins for the US Senate.

8:21 pm: CNN projects TX for McCain with its 34 electoral votes. Will Cronyn hold off Noriega for the Lone Star State US Senate seat ?

8:24 pm: As expected, MS is projected to go with McCain with its 6 electoral votes by CNN.

8:25 pm: Nationally, Ralph Nadar has about 232,00o votes and Bob Barr 222,000 votes with 37 % of the precincts nationally reporting.

8:29 pm: Incumbents with one noteworthy exception in the US House contests in CO all win easily: DeGette, Salazar, Lamborm, and Perlmutter. Polis and Coffman win in their respective districts to keep those seats for the incumbent party. Markey leads incumbent Musgrave by about a 3 -2 margin with a little less than half the precincts reporting.

8:32 pm MST : In MS, Republican Wicker leads Democrat Musgrave by 55-45 for US Senate seat.

8:35 pm: Chambliss looks to be closing in on re-election to the US Senate in GA; Franken winning in MN 43-40 early on; Landrieu leads narrowly in LA 50- 48 with less than 2/3 of precincts in.

8:38 pm: With about one-quarter of the precincts reporting, Democrat Teague is winning in the Second Congressional District in NM (southern part of the state) by a 53 - 47 margin over Tinsley.

8:41 pm: With more than one-third of the precincts reporting, Democrat Kirkpatrick is winning in the First Congressional District in AZ ( northern and eastern part of the state) by a 58 - 38 margin over GOP candidate Hay. Incumbent Renzi is not running for re-election so this could be a Dem pickup. All other US House seat contests in AZ following form including GOP Shadegg winning in 3rd District.

8:44 pm: With about half the precincts reporting in WY, GOP candidate Lummis has an 8000 vote lead over Dem candidate Trauner for a 52 % - 43 % lead for state's at large US House seat being vacated by GOP Cubin.

8:47 pm: CNN is using a pretty nifty holgram technology to "beam" an image of someone from somewhere else into the broadcast studio. Pretty wild...

8:49 pm: Obama ahead very early in MT with 6 % of precincts in by a 53 - 44 margin.

8:50 pm MST: I WILL START A NEW POST AT 9pm MST rather than keep carrying over all these older entries when I make a new entry. It will have "Part Two" in its title.

8:53 pm: For your recreational reading while waiting for the results at the top of the 9pm MST hour:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/04/us/04cheyenne.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

What is does not say is that Cheyenne is already by far the most Democratic part of WY, followed by Laramie and then Jackson...

8:56 pm: Democrat candidate Ben Lujan winning Third Congressional District seat in northern NM by a better than 3 - 2 margin with 30 % of precincts reporting. This would be a hold for the Dems. Expect the margin to widen as more precincts report.

*****

03 November 2008

Mountain Time Zone Perspective Blog Election Predictions

The time is almost here, so here is this writer's guesses and predictions on what will happen in the General Election on Tuesday 4 November across the US.
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PRESIDENT OF THE US
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I am predicting Obama to win easily. He will amass around 390 electoral votes and carry most every state he is seen as being competitive in, which I believe to total 30 (plus DC) in all. McCain will get around 148 electoral votes and carry 20 states (AK; AZ; UT; ID; WY; MT; ND; SD: NE; KS; OK; TX; LA; AR; MS; AL, TN, KY, SC, and WV). The race will largely be decided by 7pm MST as key battleground states like IN, NC, VA, OH, MO, and PA go for Obama. It would not surprise me to see Obama accumulate in excess of 425 electoral votes.
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US SENATE
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I am predicting the Democrats get to 60 as their number in the Senate if one includes Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman as close allies of the Democrats in the Senate Caucus. The Democrats will pick up seats in AK; OR; CO; NM; MN; VA; NC; and NH. They will also pick up a seat in at least one of these four states: GA; KY; MS; and TX, with GA the most likely one. The GOP will hold their seats in WY (2); ID; NE; KS; OK; AL; MS (1); and TN. A Senate with 60 or 61 pure Democrats is not an impossibility but unlikely in my opinion.
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US HOUSE
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It is difficult to get a handle on what firmly will happen, but based on what I am reading and hearing, I predict the Democrats pick up a minimum of 23 House seats, with 30 not out of the question. I think it is all but impossible for any gains above that level unless a lot of observers are really wrong. At least four or five seats in the eight state Mountain States region will turnover to the Democrats from Republicans.
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GOVERNORS
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I predict one or two upsets will take place, perhaps in MO, IN, VT, NC, or WA. There are only 11 seats up for election on Tuesday which makes any number of upsets largely unlikely.
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*****

Is the Concept of Clean Coal Realistic ?

There are a number of differing viewpoints on this subject. Ultimately, I believe at some point the way electricity is provided for with the massive scale of burning coal is doomed. But I cannot see any iota of change with a switch either gradually or more rapidly in the coming two decades and probably beyond that. Coal is going to be burned for electricity generation on a broad basis well into the 2040s and beyond. The vast majority of electricity will continue to be generated from the burning of coal in spite of what is is doing to the atmosphere and environment for a long time still. Only if there is a radical sudden change in the environment, global climate, ecosystems, and at places close to sea level will there start to be an impetus away from coal. Even if the concept of clean coal burning becomes a reality in the coming decades, global warming will hasten coal's demise over a generation or two as alternative energy sources like solar and wind become more available and inexpensive. Hopefully nuclear electricity generation will not re-emerge.
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http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/10/30-1
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http://www.alternet.org/environment/105429/
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*****

02 November 2008

Guide to Election '08 Hour by Hour After the Polls Start to Close

Here is what this writer will be looking at as each hour goes by in the late afternoon and evening on Tuesday 4 November, Election Day 2008. The big moments will happen midway in the evening, likely after 8pm, but intriguing results could be announced in opening few hours that may keep the evening suspenseful for quite some time and then some.
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The first polls close at 4pm MST (6pm EST) in Kentucky and Indiana. No projections will be made at this point since polls are still open in the portions of the states that are in the Central Time Zone. But expect CNN and other media to have some very interesting and revealing exit poll data on the moods, feelings, and sentiments of voters in a wide variety of demographic groups. We will also get a sense of what turnout is like in many states, particularly the key battleground states for the Presidency and Senate.
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The first complete poll closures occur at 5pm MST (7pm EST) in seven states: FL, GA, SC, VT, VA, and the remainder of IN and KY. Expect the first projections to come out in SC and KY giving those states to McCain, and in VT and VA for Obama. Some largely uncontested Senate races will also have projections made for them. But in the battleground states of FL, GA, and IN, the early results will be much to close for projections to be made this early in the evening.
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At 5:30 pm MST polls close in OH and WV. We probably will not see projections from these two states either so early in the evening. This is the time to place the order for the pizza and pop delivery.
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At 6pm MST (8pm EST) fifteen states close their polls completely with four other states closing the eastern portion of their polls. Most of these states are in the Northeast and the remainder of the South with a few in the Midwest. Expect a rapid fire of projections quickly from this selection of states with most (CT, DE, DC, ME, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, PA, and IL being declared as states in the Obama column and the much of the remainder (TN, AL, TX, and OK) for McCain. Projections on the other four (FL, MO, MS, and SD) will not be made so soon after the polls close in each of those states due to the very tight results early on. We will probably see a number of Senate races and noteworthy House races projected and declared in some of these 19 states shortly after the poll closings.
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At 6:30 two states will be through with voting: AR and NC. Both states figure to have close results in the early going so no projections will be made immediately. As this 6:00 hour goes on we will probably get projections for the first time from some of the battleground states like VA, IN, OH, MS, and WV. A few more Senate races may also get projected.
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As the hour reaches 7pm MST (9pm EST), ten states and portions of four others will close up the voting polls. Most of these states are in the Midwest and Mountain states regions. Once again, a number of these states will be quickly projected and cause the electoral college numbers to jump quickly. We may also see some additional projections from states that had earlier oll closures such as FL and NC. By the time we reach this hour, we will know for certain if an upset by McCain is still possible or completely dead. What is determined to have happened will be of the most critical importance in this hour with the number of states done with voting in the majority.
It will also be of interest to see the results being tabulated in the eight state Mountain region as polls will have closed in parts of the region at this time.
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8pm MST (10pm EST) figures to be the hour if and when Obama goes over the top or at least gets very close to victory with poll closures in five states and three partial closures. The map of change in the Senate may also start to come into a rough form.
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If Obama does not go over the 27o number at 8pm, he will unquestionably do so at 9pm MST (11pm EST) with the closure of polls in certain supporting Obama states like CA, WA, OR, and HI. By this point only AK will still have citizens voting at the polls. By this time we will also have a better idea if this election can be described as an Obama landslide or just a victory as key battleground states in the East, Midwest, and South will likely to have been projected after a few hours past their poll closings. We also may see key contested US Senate races better understood and perhaps further projected. The make up of the US House will also come into a rough form with still many races to be decided and votes counted across the nation. Results from the Mountain Time Zone should be largely complete except perhaps on some key ballot issues in such states as CO.
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At 10pm (Midnight EST) Alaska is the last state to start counting votes and McCain should win there by a better than 4-3 margin. The full scope of the election, its results, and what it will all mean should be be starting to become quite apparent by this point. We may also know whether the Democrats will have gotten to sixty in the Senate and have an idea how many seats the GOP will lose in the House. Expect a speech by Obama at some point around this hour as well. A McCain concession speech is also likely to happen at some point around this time, and before Obama makes his speech if things hold to form as being currently predicted.
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By Midnight MST (2am EST) most results should be in, but expect about one to two dozen results to still be up in the air from a wide variety of places across the nation, and some of them may be rather quite surprising and unexpected.
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For those still with us at this point, it is probably best to call it a night if one has an early morning work obligation and check back during the day on Wednesday to find out the results that were still undecided. It would not be unusual to see several races in the House still up in the air 24 hours after the polls have closed in the state where the race was contested.
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*****

Is This Really America ?

...From George Monbiot in his blog Monbiot.com in a post on Tuesday 28 October:
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The Triumph of Ignorance
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Posted October 28, 2008
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Why morons succeed in US politics.
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By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 28th October 2008
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How was it allowed to happen? How did politics in the US come to be dominated by people who make a virtue out of ignorance? Was it charity that has permitted mankind’s closest living relative to spend two terms as president? How did Sarah Palin, Dan Quayle and other such gibbering numbskulls get to where they are? How could Republican rallies in 2008 be drowned out by screaming ignoramuses insisting that Barack Obama is a Muslim and a terrorist?(1)
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Like most people on this side of the Atlantic I have spent my adult life mystified by American politics. The US has the world’s best universities and attracts the world’s finest minds. It dominates discoveries in science and medicine. Its wealth and power depend on the application of knowledge. Yet, uniquely among the developed nations (with the possible exception of Australia), learning is a grave political disadvantage.
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There have been exceptions over the past century: Franklin Roosevelt, Kennedy and Clinton tempered their intellectualism with the common touch and survived; but Adlai Stevenson, Al Gore and John Kerry were successfully tarred by their opponents as members of a cerebral elite (as if this were not a qualification for the presidency). Perhaps the defining moment in the collapse of intelligent politics was Ronald Reagan’s response to Jimmy Carter during the 1980 presidential debate. Carter - stumbling a little, using long words - carefully enumerated the benefits of national health insurance. Reagan smiled and said “there you go again”(2). His own health programme would have appalled most Americans, had he explained it as carefully as Carter had done, but he had found a formula for avoiding tough political issues and making his opponents look like wonks.
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It wasn’t always like this. The founding fathers of the republic - men like Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, John Adams and Alexander Hamilton - were among the greatest thinkers of their age. They felt no need to make a secret of it. How did the project they launched degenerate into George W Bush and Sarah Palin?
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On one level this is easy to answer. Ignorant politicians are elected by ignorant people. US education, like the US health system, is notorious for its failures. In the most powerful nation on earth, one adult in five believes the sun revolves around the earth; only 26% accept that evolution takes place by means of natural selection; two-thirds of young adults are unable to find Iraq on a map; two-thirds of US voters cannot name the three branches of government; the maths skills of 15 year-olds in the US are ranked 24th out of the 29 countries of the OECD(3).
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But this merely extends the mystery: how did so many US citizens become so dumb, and so suspicious of intelligence? Susan Jacoby’s book The Age of American Unreason provides the fullest explanation I have read so far. She shows that the degradation of US politics results from a series of interlocking tragedies.
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One theme is both familiar and clear: religion - in particular fundamentalist religion - makes you stupid. The US is the only rich country in which Christian fundamentalism is vast and growing.
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Jacoby shows that there was once a certain logic to its anti-rationalism. During the first few decades after the publication of The Origin of Species, for example, Americans had good reason to reject the theory of natural selection and to treat public intellectuals with suspicion. From the beginning, Darwin’s theory was mixed up in the US with the brutal philosophy - now known as Social Darwinism - of the British writer Herbert Spencer. Spencer’s doctrine, promoted in the popular press with the help of funding from Andrew Carnegie, John D. Rockefeller and Thomas Edison, suggested that millionaires stood at the top of a scala natura established by evolution. By preventing unfit people from being weeded out, government intervention weakened the nation. Gross economic inequalities were both justifiable and necessary(4).
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Darwinism, in other words, became indistinguishable to the public from the most bestial form of laissez-faire economics. Many Christians responded with revulsion. It is profoundly ironic that the doctrine rejected a century ago by such prominent fundamentalists as William Jennings Bryan is now central to the economic thinking of the Christian right. Modern fundamentalists reject the science of Darwinian evolution and accept the pseudoscience of Social Darwinism.
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But there were other, more powerful, reasons for the intellectual isolation of the fundamentalists. The US is peculiar in devolving the control of education to local authorities. Teaching in the southern states was dominated by the views of an ignorant aristocracy of planters, and a great educational gulf opened up. “In the South”, Jacoby writes, “what can only be described as an intellectual blockade was imposed in order to keep out any ideas that might threaten the social order.”(5)
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The Southern Baptist Convention, now the biggest Protestant denomination in the US, was to slavery and segregation what the Dutch Reformed Church was to apartheid in South Africa. It has done more than any other force to keep the South stupid. In the 1960s it tried to stave off desegregation by establishing a system of private Christian schools and universities. A student can now progress from kindergarten to a higher degree without any exposure to secular teaching. Southern Baptist beliefs pass intact through the public school system as well. A survey by researchers at the University of Texas in 1998 found that one in four of the state’s public school biology teachers believed that humans and dinosaurs lived on earth at the same time(6).
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This tragedy has been assisted by the American fetishisation of self-education. Though he greatly regretted his lack of formal teaching, Abraham Lincoln’s career is repeatedly cited as evidence that good education, provided by the state, is unnecessary: all that is required to succeed is determination and rugged individualism. This might have served people well when genuine self-education movements, like the one built around the Little Blue Books in the first half of the 20th century, were in vogue. In the age of infotainment it is a recipe for confusion.
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Besides fundamentalist religion, perhaps the most potent reason why intellectuals struggle in elections is that intellectualism has been equated with subversion. The brief flirtation of some thinkers with communism a long time ago has been used to create an impression in the public mind that all intellectuals are communists. Almost every day men like Rush Limbaugh and Bill O’Reilly rage against the “liberal elites” destroying America.
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The spectre of pointy-headed alien subversives was crucial to the election of Reagan and Bush. A genuine intellectual elite - like the neocons (some of them former communists) surrounding Bush - has managed to pitch the political conflict as a battle between ordinary Americans and an over-educated pinko establishment. Any attempt to challenge the ideas of the rightwing elite has been successfully branded as elitism.
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Obama has a good deal to offer America, but none of this will come to an end if he wins. Until the great failures of the US education system are reversed or religious fundamentalism withers there will be political opportunities for people, like Bush and Palin, who flaunt their ignorance.
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http://www.monbiot.com/
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References:
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1. For a staggering display of ignorance and bigotry, see: http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=lPg0VCg4AEQ
2. You can see this exchange at http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=px7aRIhUkHY&feature=related
3. All these facts are contained in Susan Jacoby, 2008. The Age of American Unreason: dumbing down and the future of democracy. Old Street Publishing, London.
4. Susan Jacoby, ibid. Chapter 3.
5. Susan Jacoby, ibid. Page 57.
6. Susan Jacoby, ibid. Page 25.
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I have to believe Mr Monbiot's conclusions are not in error as he does present strong evidence to his premises. It also seems to me there is an awful lot of uneducated, uninformed, and ignorant people around in numbers that stagger the imagination that one encounters on a daily basis in all walks of life. However, I do think America will be making some long overdue positive changes soon with a strong promising start that will please Monbiot and others, among them yours truly, with the election results on Tuesday into Wednesday.
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