Some 2010 Outlooks

Here are several links that contain projections and outlooks about the upcoming year 2010. One would have to say most of these columns can be described overall as being negative .

Robert Reich:

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2010/01/whats-ahead-for-economy-and-politics-in.html

James Kunstler:

http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/12/forecast-2010.html#more


Paul Krugman:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/01/opinion/01krugman.html?hp


George Washington Blog:

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/12/will-americans-reclaim-our-nation-in.html


Bond Dad Blog:

http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2009/12/silveroz-economic-predictions-for-2010.html


Jon Talton:

http://roguecolumnist.typepad.com/rogue_columnist/2009/12/the-2010-thing.html


Sharon Astyk:

http://energybulletin.net/node/51105


Patrick Killelea:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/les-leopold/the-new-decade-billionair_b_405345.html?source=patrick.net


Ben Jones:

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=5808


Watching History:

http://www.watchinghistory.com/2009/12/predictions-for-2010.html


Karl Schwarz at rense.com

http://www.rense.com/general89/pred.htm


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Mountain Time Zone Blog 2010 Outlook and Projections

The year 2010 will be as challenging, if not more so, than the year 2009. This writer sees little improvement, if at all, in the lives of most American citizens. The slow deterioration of the United States will continue on unabated, and very well could worsen at a faster pace than anticipated if certain circumstances eventuate. With that being said, here are some specifics:

1. Unemployment will continue to be the most immediate serious problems facing American citizens. The U-3 unemployment rate will see little decrease in 2010, and is likely to inch upward. The forecast here is for the rate to wobble between 9.7 and 11.2 %. The more accurate and realistic U-6 unemployment rate will continue to be grim and will worsen, as more citizens are resigned to just part-time work or are underemployed; and the numbers of those who have just given up and dropped out to live off of relatives and friends will increase. The U-6 rate will be between 17.0 and 21.0 % during 2010, and the seriousness of this crisis is likely to be statistically understated.

2. With demand remaining soft at best, and likely declining, there will be little if any inflation in 2010 for prices for consumer goods, and raw materials prices should remain static as well. Possible exceptions exist for food prices, which are contingent upon weather and other factors; but do not expect any notable upticks. Sales and markdowns will continue to increase with retailers, and some great deals will be had by those who are particularly observant. A risk of inflation is a growing cloud on the horizon, but large factors remain uncertain in trying to access this looming threat and possible disaster in the next several years in the form of hyperinflation.

3. GDP will have an up and down year, with a range of <1.6> to +2.2 % in quarterly changes. The first quarter will be decent with a minimal increase, but the final two quarters should see declines. Demand will continue to be soft at best, and nonexistent to an extent for some goods and services. Most nonessential manufacturing will be all but completely shut down. The second half of 2010 will be worse than the first half, and it is clearly possible the US will collapse into a second or echo recession far worse than the one that statistically ended in late summer of 2009.

4. Corporations have largely found the solution to keep themselves alive, and that is to hoard cash and run lean and mean. That means little if any investment and growth, and keeping inventory, staffing, and hiring to a minimum, with continuing downscaling and layoffs in order to keep stock prices at a optimal level. Small business will remain moribund with little expansion and growth in the coming year. One place where failures will increase is with banks. After 140 failures in 2009, expect bank failures to near and possibly exceed 200 in number. Of course, large banks, buttressed by federal bailouts, will report record revenues and profits, and bonuses and payouts to executives and management will be appallingly obscene as these entities continue to only affirm their place as the dominant institution and power players in the United States, and to a slightly lessor extent, globally.

5. Housing values and prices will continue downward at varying paces depending on the location and region. Overall, nationally housing prices will lose about 5 - 8 %, but some places will see a decline just in 2010 of better than 20 - 25 %. There is such a huge supply of available homes and overbuilt communities to fully dispel any price growth. New home construction is largely dead across the nation and will continue to be so for the next few years. Federal tax credit programs will help allow for some sales and existing home improvements, but these programs could expire which will only worsen matters. Home values and prices remain several years away from a bottom, and a generation or more away in some areas.

6. One area completely certain to increase and worsen will be with foreclosures. 2010 could see the total number of foreclosures exceed three million in number with a large number of unconventional mortgages due to adjust this year, as well as increased unemployment and hardship. The ever increasing number of vacant houses due to foreclosures only contributes to declining home values and prices, and bloats the inventory.

7. A number of states will struggle with massive budget deficits, and will continue to ruthlessly reduce services and programs to the most helpless and unfortunate in society: children, women, the elderly, handicapped, undereducated, and infirm. Some states will have to borrow money from the federal government just to meet mandatory obligations like unemployment compensation. A state declaring bankruptcy is not out of the question. Among the states in the most dire straits include California, Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New York.

8. Oil prices largely went up throughout 2009, and this trend is likely to continue in 2o10. The forecast here is for the benchmark price of a barrel of oil to be between $70 and $110, with the higher end more the trend than the lower end. Only because demand is relatively soft does the price not approach the 2008 numbers. Of course, a significant world event or crisis could lead to prices spiking temporarily higher, but a spike of this order is likely to be a short term occurrence lasting less than 3 months, but it would result in a higher base price being set for the next year out.

9. Global warming and climate change will continue unabated and still somewhat unnoticed on a macro level outside of the northern and southern latitudes, and by those in the know. The biggest consequence of the change now being observed is much more severe storms, with torrential rainfall and flooding occurring. Heatwaves will also increase, but probably not yet to an extent where concern by most people increases. 2010 is likely to be recorded as the hottest year on the planet, but North America will not share in that number for the most part. The Arctic icecap should shrink to a record size of smallest extent, and continuing changes in Antarctica will be observed that are troubling. Loss of fauna and flora species is underway, but noteworthy losses will not be finalized in 2010, but the downward trend toward an inevitable end will continue unabated both for the known and largely unknown species globally. This writer believes the year of the big jolt of change of global warming is now perhaps as few as just a few years away and no later than around 2018. The Planet Earth is headed towards a 4 degrees C global temperature increase within a generation.

10. The 2010 elections are likely to see Republican advances, resulting in a stalemate for the remaining two years of the Obama administration on legislative and policy agenda. Expect little if any legislative successes in 2010 and no policy successes to address vital American citizen issues such as climate change, poverty, infrastructure, labor, and income inequality. World affairs will continue to take an inordinate amount of the administration's focus and direction, with the eternal unrest and crisis across the Middle East; growing instances of terrorism, fatalities, and uncertainty with Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, and beyond; increasing saber rattling by Russia, North Korea, and Iran; paradoxical perils and fears with China and its economy, military, and aspirations on the world stage; and growing famine and hunger in increasing numbers globally. Terrorist strikes and increased insurgency and unrest in places like Pakistan and Yemen are likely to result in expanded American and allied military presences there.

11. The price of gold will continue to rise with a threshold exceeding $1350 per ounce met during the year. Meanwhile the US dollar will continue to decline, slowly easing downward relative to other currencies throughout 2010 for the most part. 2010 very well could be the end for the dollar as the global benchmark currency as moves are underway in a number of nations to end that status. An increase in that trend would be disastrous for the American currency in almost unimaginable ways. The possibility of a collapse of the US currency grows more likely as each years goes by.

12. Stock indexes are now proven to be completely irrational and out of touch with the nation at whole. With that realization, the range expected to be seen in most indexes will undergo minimal changes. Expect a range of about 10-15 % either way throughout the year, as the Dow, NASDAQ, S&P, and others increasingly prove to be quite irrelevant in the true big picture.

13. Credit availability will be but absent across the nation, and even large, established proven organizations will find it difficult to find any financing even if they want to grow and expand. There will only be a handful of mergers proposed at all. The staggering federal deficit will cast a tall shadow over the nation's economy, stifling opportunity and improvement for most. Federal rates will remain largely near zero and unchanged for the year ahead as they have in 2009.

14. Finally, and most importantly, Americans will continue to grow increasingly disillusioned and dispassioned. A malaise has grown across the nation, and many Americans have responded by withdrawing and hunkering down and holing up. Ratings for NFL and college football have set tremendous records this autumn which reflects this trend. Frugality, self-sustainment, and self-substanance are the order of the day now for most and increasingly more people in the United States. Expect low turnout in elections this year which will only prove to help Republicans score gains in many regions. The only possibility to the the opposite is the possible split of the Democratic Party with the formation of a progressive, anti-corporatist third party which could grow into a significant player for the 2012 election.

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As stated last year, All in all, 2010 is looking to be a worse year than '09, mainly due to all the problems that were created in past years and have been festering, waiting for right time to explode. Very few citizens will be able to avoid having mud land on them to at least a small extent, giving them great pain and increased hardship and tragedy. The US continues to take significant steps towards state fascism, with corporations that parts of oligopolies continuing to gain power and financial wealth at the expense of the American citizen and their long beautiful history of democracy and direct-election voting.

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THR 17 December News Articles & Opinion

Here are the news articles and columns of today and recently that have caught my attention, with some opinions on them.

America's Greatest Historical Failure

The lack of any strong sense of strong pro-people social policy development and reductions in what few did grow in the mid 20th Century can clearly be seen relative to other nations globally, and has great consequences for most of the citizenry, as well as other peoples and nations around the world. Unfortunately we are in a deep cycle where no maturing and policy enlightenment is possible beyond a minimal level for at least another decade and probably beyond.

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/23519

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Comparing Phoenix and Seattle

When reading these observations, Seattle clearly comes out as the place to live.

http://roguecolumnist.typepad.com/rogue_columnist/2009/12/phoenix-and-seattle.html#more

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WED 16 December News Articles & Opinion

The day's news articles of interest with some of my opinion included on some.

Chomsky on the Crisis of Capitalism

If one reads between the lines, he is saying the political economic system that has been the US for its existence is rapidly getting on thin ice and seemingly headed for utter collapse and disolution.

http://bostonreview.net/BR34.5/chomsky.php?chom

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Grim Future Concerning Unemployment

I do not expect unemployment to be reduced to an acceptable level, such as 6 %, for many years. U-6 unemployment is likely to stay above 12 % at best for the foreseeable future, perhaps forever.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/226426?GT1=43002

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Interesting Historical Comparison

History does repeat itself, but often with different results and consequences.

http://tpjmagazine.us/ardell41

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Troubles with LED Traffic Signal Lighting

Solving this problem is very simple and inexpensive.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34436730/ns/us_news-life

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How the Mountain West has Endured in The Economic Collapse

Colorado and Utah have generally done better than Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and Idaho. Montana and Wyoming are not included in this study.

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_13997421

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2009-12-14-housing-bust-Rockies_N.htm

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Programs/Metro/metro_monitor/2009_12_metro_monitor/2009_12_mountain_monitor.pdf

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Bernie Sanders Leads the Charge for the Answer for Health Care Coverage

But because insurance corporations have bought most of the elected officials in Congress, his perfect proposal is doomed, which is a staggering horrendous loss for all of us.

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/12/15-9

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Why China will not Rise to the Level of Greatness of the US

One opinion and analysis against the possibility of Chinese dominance.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2009/12/december-15-2009-why-china-wont-succeed.html

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Ice Free Arctic Forecast Goes Back to 2007

I believe I posted this report when it came out nearly three years ago, and still the mainstream and right wing media and their corporate and government lackeys and slackjaws continue to mercilessly attack the premise, with their usual lack of scientific and intellectual insight.

http://climateprogress.org/2009/12/15/gore-derangement-syndrome/#more-15970

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The California Central Valley: Well on Its Way to Becoming Another Death Valley

Agricultural output in this important region is already in steep decline, and the desertification of much of the land here is already underway. Desertification will increase and intensify notably in the coming decade, as the federal government are ill-prepared in every way to deal with this crisis.

http://skywatch-media.com/2009/12/new-dust-bowl.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheGreatRedComet-earthScienceChronicles+%28The+Great+Red+Comet-Earth+Science+Chronicles%29

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The Looming Bankruptcy of California and Its Impact

The odds of a state default by California at this point are about two in five, and increasing. The effects of such an action would be devastating to the nation at large, and even globally. An added increase of three to seven points in the U-3 unemployment rate would likely occur within one year, and the U-6 unemployment rate would be in excess of 25 %.

http://www.newgeography.com/content/001274-what-happens-when-california-defaults?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Newgeography+%28Newgeography.com+-+
Economic%2C+demographic%2C+and+political+commentary+about+places%29

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Wind Power Expansion Chances Across Wyoming

Having been a resident of the state in the past, the entrenched strength of the old boy network, public bureacracy, and an almost universal opposition to change by nearly all the citizenry and businesses in state will keep the potential of this energy goldmine from probably ever being realized. The citizens of the state could make out like bandits much as their Alaskan counterparts have with oil, but it won't happen. Yesteryear rules across Wyoming.

http://www.hcn.org/issues/41.22/wind-resistance

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Is the American Dynasty in Decline? The Charts Don't Lie ... - Sphere News

The statistics and facts presented here clearly show the United States is in a seriously sharp decline.

Is the American Dynasty in Decline? The Charts Don't Lie ... - Sphere News

http://www.sphere.com/nation/article/is-the-american-dynasty-in-decline-the-charts-dont-lie-/19270267

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SAT 5 December News Articles & Opinion

Here is a news article that caught my attention:

Clinton Era Welfare Reform Fails Nation Miserably in Era of Economic Collapse

http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2009/12/why-welfare-reform-fails-its-recession-test.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+EconomistsView+%28Economist%27s+View+%28EconomistsView%29%29

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FRI 4 December News Articles & Opinion

Friday the 5th of December has these couple of news items that were of interest to me.

November U-6 Unemployment Remains Largely Static

The numbers at this point show a tiny minuscule improvement, likely to be revised for the worse in the coming weeks.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

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Climate Change Naysayers Funded by Evil Triad Giant Exxon

Mindless inane naysayers, basically flat-earthers, leading the simpletons and naive down the path to inevitable ruin then doom ....

http://rawstory.com/2009/12/climate-skeptic-group-nipcc-extensive-ties-exxonmobil/

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Single Payer Still on the Slate, but Optimism Concerning Its Possible Success Limited

I truly wish Senator Sanders' direction is the one the nation would take, but one of the Evil Triad, insurance corporations, will ensure its defeat to ensure their greed, power, and profits.

http://www.pnhp.org/news/2009/december/sanders-offers-medicare-for-all-amendment-in-senate

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2009/12/03-8

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Bunning's Best Pitches Ever -- and He had Two No-Hitters in Major League Baseball !

Barnanke and his inept cronies need to go -- the sooner the better.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/12/senator-bunning-to-bernanke-you-are.html

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Professor Krugman Raises Two Serious and Dangerous Warnings

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/12/01/double-dip-warning/

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/04/opinion/04krugman.html?hp


Negatives of Obama Administration's Afghanistan Policy

Senator Russ Feingold, an excellent choice to succeed Obama if the President opts not for re-election in 2012, has some great insight on the fundamental flaws of the Administration's policy direction concerning Afghanistan.

http://www.waow.com/Global/story.asp?S=11608873

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/12/better-military-strategy-for.html

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The US is Becoming the 1980s Version of the USSR

All military, no manufacturing, no economic core, no justice or progress, just the Military Industrial Complex and an increasing omniscient Corpocracy, or more accuratey, a Corporate Communism overwhelmingly dominated and controlling state.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/12/obamas-financiers-okay-extra-60-billion-for-pentagon/

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Morocco: The Good Side and The Bad Side

USA Today had a great article in their travel section that made Morocco out to be quite exciting and a forward thinking place, but there is a deep dark ugly side that Americans are unaware of.

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/destinations/2009-12-03-morocco-tourism_N.htm

http://www.alternet.org/story/144334/the_other_occupation%3A_western_sahara_and_the_case_of_aminatou_haidar

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Denver Metro Area Loses Nearly 4 % of Employment in Last Year

http://denver.bizjournals.com/denver/stories/2009/11/30/daily45.html

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Link of the Day

http://www.banksterusa.org/

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THR 3 December News Articles and Opinion

Here are the items that are of interest to me:

Top Ten All But Unheard News Reports of 2009

From Foreign Policy:

1) Opening of the Northwest Passage
2) Looming War in Iraq between Arabs and Kurds
3) Greater Communication between China and India
4) Another more harsher housing bubble bursts in 2010
5) Failures in Iraq and Afghanistan
6) Brazil and China cozying up militarily
7) Serious security issues with US Passports process
8) Chechen government committing murder globally
9) US military participation in Ugandan Civil War
10) College education specifically for Spies

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/11/30/the_top_10_stories_you_missed_in_2009?page=0,0

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The Eternal Intra-American Conflict

I largely agree with the conclusions in this article.

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=fed_up_with_federalism

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James Hansen on Cap-and-Trade

Cap-and-Trade is a very bad policy idea and should never see the light of day. The enactment of it dooms Earth to incredible deadly global warming and climate change beyond imagination and in a much faster period of time than has speculated and projected.

http://georgewashington2.blogspot.com/2009/12/worlds-leading-global-warming-crusader.html

America Has Been in Collapse since Early 1970s

The information and statistics bear out what I have fully known: we have been going downhill for over 35 years, and what increases and maintenance in the standard of living and quality of life have been due to deficit spending, overuse and misuse of credit, and, most critically, the full fledged participation of women, namely mothers, into the working world which has had devastating consequences for the family, community, and society.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/elizabeth-warren/america-without-a-middle_b_377829.html

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WED 2 December News Articles and Opinion

Here are a couple of news articles that have caught my eye today.

Idaho Projected to Set Pace in Job Growth Through 2015

http://www.sltrib.com/business/ci_13903603

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Gold Nears $1,225.00 per Ounce

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-taps-more-records-nears-1225-2009-12-02

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Google to Map Out Economic Consequences of Global
Warming and Climate Change on California

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/google-helps-california-visualize-climate-chaos-2009-12-02

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Lives Knowing Nothing but War

It has been over eight years since the US launched combat operations in Afghanistan, and over six and a half years in Iraq. Prior to these military operations, the longest war fought by the US was in Vietnam, from the spring of '65 until the spring of '73. Other unofficial long wars include the Cold War against the USSR from 1945 until 1990, and the frontier wars of conquest against the native Indian tribes and peoples on the North American continent that lasted from early in the 17th century until near 1900. The combined length of both WWI and WWII were less than five and a half years, which says alot about what this mission has been all about and the level of commitment and sacrifice the government, businesses, and citizens of the US are williing to take on.

It is indeed sad to ponder this and all the waste and futility that has occurred. And it is all but absolutely certain these wars will continue on much as The Cold War and Indian Conquest Frontier Wars did for decades to come.

http://agonist.org/nat_wilson_turner/20091202/alan_grayson_on_afghanistan

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/02/world/asia/02strategy.html?_r=1&hpw

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Opinion on Afghanistan Troop Increase Plan

As President Obama plans to announce yet another increase in troop numbers in the Middle East quagmire known as Afghanistan, my opinion remains unchanged. The US needs to leave Afghanistan militarily, withdrawing all troops within six months or less. This decision by Obama is wrong and will come back to bite him horrendously.

Dozens of empires in the last several millennia have failed in their endeavors in Afghanistan. The British Empire to a certain extent and the USSR to a large extent were brought down by their prolonged ineffective military presence in Afghanistan. History will repeat itself yet again, this time for the US in increasing likelihood with this poor decision.

http://blog.buzzflash.com/node/9931

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/12/what-empires-have-said-throughout.html

http://whatreallyhappened.com/content/death-warrant-future

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TUE 1 December News Articles & Opinion

This blog will put up links to news articles of interest, often in relation to the Mountain states region, on a regular or daily basis. Commentary will accompany some of the links.

10 Years of Wasatch Front Light Rail Mass Transit

There are several cities throughout the region that need to step up efforts to get rail systems of their own initiated or grown, including El Paso, Albuquerque, Tucson, Las Vegas, Boise, Cheyenne, Casper, Billings, Colorado Springs, Pueblo, Grand Junction, and Missoula. Regional and area high speed mass transit is also long overdue in almost every part of the region.

http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_13896363

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A New Educational Approach

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/30/nyregion/30forest.html?_r=1&em

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An Exciting Archeological Discovery

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/01/science/01arch.html?em=&pagewanted=all

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Climate Change Deniers Horse Manure

There is no cover-up or chicanery concerning Global Warming and Climate Change. It is already here, getting far more worse daily, and is largely caused by man made activities such as fossil fuel burning, wide-scale sprawl and development, continued irresponsible unabated human population growth, deforestation, and epic levels of pollution. The sad thing is that corporations and their government lackeys, along with small minded and closed minded simpletons, are preventing any policy change from happening that will lessen the impact of this greatest change in human history from happening starkly and horrifically in the coming years and decades.


http://www.alternet.org/story/144188/the_real_scandal_over_climate_change_isn%27t_about_hacked_emails_but_the_media%27s_coverage

http://climateprogress.org/2009/12/02/climategate-newsweek-nasa-james-hansen-deniers-climate-science/

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Mount Taylor Long Overdue to Become Federally Protected and Preserved

The entire Mount Taylor region desperately needs to be designated as a national park and historical area, removing it from any further development and ecological scarring. The economic benefits of an act like this would be tremendous to the impoverished area of Grants, NM, a sadsack town that clings on the obsolete economy of the past like much of New Mexico in hope of recapturing yesteryear. A national monument would springboard that area of Cibola County into a more forward direction.

http://www.hcn.org/issues/41.21/dueling-claims

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Deflation and Rising Interest Rates Simultaneously:
It has Happened in History and Looks to Be
Happening in 2010 in the United States

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/12/keynesians-are-wrong-you-can-have.html

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