Mountain Time Zone Perspective: October 2008

Lincoln's Grave Warning Realized

Eight Principles of Uncivilization

by Paul Kingsnorth and Dougald Hine

‘We must unhumanise our views a little, and become conﬁdent
As the rock and ocean that we were made from.’

We live in a time of social, economic and ecological unravelling. All around us are signs that our whole way of living is already passing into history. We will face this reality honestly and learn how to live with it.

We reject the faith which holds that the converging crises of our times can be reduced to a set of‘problems’ in need of technological or political ‘solutions’.

We believe that the roots of these crises lie in the stories we have been telling ourselves. We intend to challenge the stories which underpin our civilisation: the myth of progress, the myth of human centrality, and the myth of our separation from ‘nature’. These myths are more dangerous for the fact that we have forgotten they are myths.

We will reassert the role of story-telling as more than mere entertainment. It is through stories that we weave reality.

Humans are not the point and purpose of the planet. Our art will begin with the attempt to step outside the human bubble. By careful attention, we will reengage with the non-human world.

We will celebrate writing and art which is grounded in a sense of place and of time. Our literature has been dominated for too long by those who inhabit the cosmopolitan citadels.

We will not lose ourselves in the elaboration of theories or ideologies. Our words will be elemental. We write with dirt under our ﬁngernails.

The end of the world as we know it is not the end of the world full stop. Together, we will ﬁnd the hope beyond hope, the paths which lead to the unknown world ahead of us.

The Dark Mountain Manifesto

(excerpt)
Walking on lava

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilisation
Ralph Waldo Emerson

Those who witness extreme social collapse at first hand seldom describe any deep revelation about the truths of human existence. What they do mention, if asked, is their surprise at how easy it is to die.

The pattern of ordinary life, in which so much stays the same from one day to the next, disguises the fragility of its fabric. How many of our activities are made possible by the impression of stability that pattern gives? So long as it repeats, or varies steadily enough, we are able to plan for tomorrow as if all the things we rely on and don’t think about too carefully will still be there. When the pattern is broken, by civil war or natural disaster or the smaller-scale tragedies that tear at its fabric, many of those activities become impossible or meaningless, while simply meeting needs we once took for granted may occupy much of our lives.

What war correspondents and relief workers report is not only the fragility of the fabric, but the speed with which it can unravel. As we write this, no one can say with certainty where the unravelling of the financial and commercial fabric of our economies will end. Meanwhile, beyond the cities, unchecked industrial exploitation frays the material basis of life in many parts of the world, and pulls at the ecological systems which sustain it.

Precarious as this moment may be, however, an awareness of the fragility of what we call civilisation is nothing new.

‘Few men realise,’ wrote Joseph Conrad in 1896, ‘that their life, the very essence of their character, their capabilities and their audacities, are only the expression of their belief in the safety of their surroundings.’ Conrad’s writings exposed the civilisation exported by European imperialists to be little more than a comforting illusion, not only in the dark, unconquerable heart of Africa, but in the whited sepulchres of their capital cities. The inhabitants of that civilisation believed ‘blindly in the irresistible force of its institutions and its morals, in the power of its police and of its opinion,’ but their confidence could be maintained only by the seeming solidity of the crowd of like-minded believers surrounding them. Outside the walls, the wild remained as close to the surface as blood under skin, but the city-dweller was no longer equipped to face it directly.

The remainder of the essay can be read online: Dark Mountain manifesto.

Paul is the author of One No, Many Yeses and Real England. He was deputy editor of The Ecologist between 1999 and 2001. His first poetry collection, Kidland, is forthcoming from Salmon Poetry. His website is www.paulkingsnorth.net

Dougald writes the blog Changing the World (and other excuses for not getting a proper job). He is a former BBC journalist and has written for and edited various online and offline magazines. His website is www.dougald.co.uk

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Editorial Notes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The "Eight principles of uncivilisation" are expanded in the Dark Mountain manifesto (also available as PDF or purchased as a limited-edition, hand-stitched pamphlet.

See the site for the blog and information about their upcoming festival May 28-30.

Several Energy Bulletin contributors are on their Blogroll, including John Michael Greer, Sharon Astyk, Rob Hopkins and Dmitry Orlov. Also mentioned are Wendell Berry and Ivan Illich.

George Monbiot recently wrote a column in the Guardian about Dark Mountain Project: I share their despair, but I'm not quite ready to climb the Dark Mountain.

On Common Dreams, Robert C. Koehler wrote a related piece: Dark Green.

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Original article available here
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Our American Objectives

"Our national goals must be to rejuvenate the domestic economy; transfer the economic basis of our nation from consumptive to productive; recapitalize education and the technologies industries; achieve complete energy independence; move towards renewable energy sources;
restore public confidence in the government's ability to undertake large national infrastructure projects, and re-assert its right to set goals and policies to ensure those projects proceed smoothly; define the overarching standards for a reconstructed America including a federal review of the building and planning codes now in use, and probably the writing of new mandates that set out 21st-century standards and priorities for energy use, urban and transportation planning, and environmental design, which once put into law and accepted into general use, will be very difficult to change; commit funding for a massive 10- or 20-year program that will upgrade or replace failing components of America's infrastructure as the nation is broke (as it was in FDR's day) and this kind of spending needs to be seen as the long-term investment in our economic future that it is; restore a fair, honest, broad-based system of public contracting that will put large numbers of Americans to work on these new projects (and write the new rules in a way that ensures that the firms doing the most innovative work don't have to compete with unfair behemoth corporations like Halliburton and Lockheed for the lion's share of the funding) so that once there is a healthy, competitive construction industry that knows how to build sustainable projects—and is relying on the government to keep it in business—we will get a political constituency that will fight to ensure that the rebuilding will continue for the next several decades, regardless of what political party is in power; use the forces of globalization and information to strengthen and expand existing democratic alliances and created new ones; employ these alliances to destroy terrorist networks and establish new international security structures; lead, through our historic principles, on international cooperative efforts in spreading economic opportunity and democratic liberties, nation building, counter-prolification, and optimum environmental protection and safeguards; and cherish, honor, and protect our history and traditions of liberty and freedoms domestically particularly with respect to the Bill of Rights."

"The renewed social contract for America with its middle class and poor must:

Raise the minimum wage still higher and on a regular basis. It has fallen far behind increases in inflation since the 1970s, and that affects higher level wages as well.
Encourage living-wage programs by local governments. Governments can demand that their contractors and suppliers pay well above the minimum wage. There is substantial evidence that this does not result in an undue loss of jobs.
Enforce the labor laws vigilantly. Minimum-wage and maximum-hour laws are violated to a stunning degree. American workers shouldn't be forced by their employers to understate the number of hours worked or be locked in the warehouse so they can't leave on time. Workers often make only $2 and $3 an hour.
Unions are not seeking a free pass to organize secretly when they advocate for open check-offs on cards to approve of a union vote. They are seeking to organize without persistent and often illegal management interference. Penalties for illegally deterring such organizing are so light, it makes little sense for management not to pursue strategies to stop organizing even at the cost of prosecution.
Request that trading partners develop serious environmental standards and worker-protection laws. This is good for them, bringing a progressive revolution and a robust domestic market to their countries. It is good for America, which will be able to compete on a more level playing field.
Demand that the president, governors and mayors speak up about unconscionable executive salaries and low wages. The influence from the top cannot be underestimated. A president who looks the other way sends a strong signal to business. A president who demands responsible treatment of workers will get a response. Business does not like such attention.
These measures should be accompanied by serious investment in modernized infrastructure and energy alternatives, which can create millions of domestic jobs that pay good salaries. It should also be accompanied by a policy that supports a lower dollar -- contrary to Rubinomics -- in order to stimulate manufacturing exports again. Accomplishing this may require a new system of semi-fixed currencies across the globe. The unabashed high-dollar policy of the past twenty years has led to imbalances around the world that have contributed fundamentally to US overindebtedness.
And finally, the nation needs more balance on the part of the Federal Reserve between subduing inflation and creating jobs. Americans can live with inflation above 2 percent a year. There is no academic evidence to support a 2 percent annual target, although the Fed has made this its informal target."

The Continuing Case for The Second Bill of Rights for All American Citzens

...from Michael Lind on Salon.com on 11 January 2010 ....

The Case for Economic Rights

FDR said it and it holds 66 years later: There are benefits and opportunities every American should expect to enjoy

Three score and six years ago, the greatest president of the 20th century gave one of his greatest speeches. On Jan. 11, 1944, in a State of the Union address that deserves to be ranked with Lincoln's "Gettysburg Address" and King's "I Have a Dream" speech, President Franklin D. Roosevelt called for recognition of a "Second Bill of Rights." According to FDR:

"This Republic had its beginning, and grew to its present strength, under the protection of certain inalienable political rights -- among them the right of free speech, free press, free worship, trial by jury, freedom from unreasonable searches and seizures. They were our rights to life and liberty. As our nation has grown in size and stature, however -- as our industrial economy expanded -- these political rights proved inadequate to assure us equality in the pursuit of happiness."

Roosevelt did not argue that economic rights had superseded basic, old-fashioned political and civil rights. The argument of authoritarians and totalitarians that economic rights are more important than non-economic liberty was abhorrent to him. Instead, with the examples of the fascist and communist regimes of his time in mind, he argued that the purpose of economic rights was to support and reinforce, not replace, civil and political liberties:

"We have come to a clear realization of the fact that true individual freedom cannot exist without economic security and independence. 'Necessitous men are not free men.' People who are hungry and out of a job are the stuff of which dictatorships are made.

In our day these economic truths have become accepted as self-evident. We have accepted, so to speak, a second Bill of Rights under which a new basis of security and prosperity can be established for all -- regardless of station, race, or creed."

President Roosevelt was not promoting economic rights that were necessarily enforceable in court, but rather economic benefits and opportunities that every American should expect to enjoy by virtue of citizenship in our democratic republic. Many of the rights he identified have been secured by programs with bipartisan support. These include:

"the right to a good education" (the G.I. Bill, student loans, Pell Grants, Head Start, federal aid to K-12 schools) and

"the right of every family to a decent home" (federally subsidized home loans and tax breaks for home ownership). But even before the global economic crisis, the U.S. fell short when it came to full employment --

"the right to a useful and remunerative job in the industries or shops or farms or mines of the nation"

-- and a living wage --

"the right to earn enough to provide adequate food and clothing and recreation."

Roosevelt's vision was controversial at the time and is contested today. When it comes to providing a safety net for Americans, there are three distinct paradigms, which I would describe as economic citizenship, welfare corporatism and faith-based charity.

Supporters of faith-based charity among "theoconservatives" such as Marvin Olasky argue that modern social insurance like Social Security and Medicare was a mistake. The medieval British and colonial American systems of relying on religious institutions to care for the sick and poor should have been continued and built upon, with government subsidies to "faith-based institutions."

The secular business-class right, however, has shown little interest in faith-based charity, perhaps because it is difficult for rent-seeking bankers, brokers and other private sector actors to extract huge amounts of money from tax-exempt church hospitals and church soup lines. The right's preferred alternative to the progressive vision of economic citizenship is what I call "welfare corporatism." Whereas economic citizenship views protection against sickness, unemployment and old age as entitlements of citizens in a democratic republic, welfare corporatism treats these necessities of life as commodities like groceries or appliances, to be purchased in a market by people who are thought of as consumers, not citizens.

Let's contrast ideal versions of the two approaches. In the ideal America of economic citizenship, there would be a single, universal, integrated, lifelong system of economic security including

single-payer healthcare,

Social Security, unemployment payments and

family leave

paid for by a single contributory payroll tax (which could be made progressive in various ways or reduced by combination with other revenue streams). Funding for all programs would be entirely nationalized, although states could play a role in administration. There would still be supplementary private markets in health and retirement products and services for the affluent, but most middle-class Americans would continue to rely primarily on the simple, user-friendly public system of economic security. As Steven Attewell points out, the Social Security Act of 1935 was intended not merely to provide public pensions for the elderly but to establish a framework for a comprehensive system of social insurance corresponding to President Roosevelt's "right to adequate protection from the economic fears of old age, sickness, accident, and unemployment." Attewell writes: "We need to go back to the original drawing board -- the Social Security Act of 1935 -- to finish the job it began and create a truly universal and comprehensive social welfare state."

In the utopia of welfare corporatism, today's public benefits -- Social Security, Medicare, unemployment insurance and, in a few states, public family leave programs -- would be abolished and replaced by harebrained schemes dreamed up by libertarian ideologues at corporate-funded think tanks like the Cato Institute and the Heritage Foundation. Tax subsidies would be funneled to insurance companies, brokers and banks. Social Security would be replaced by a bewildering miscellany of tax-favored personal savings accounts. Medicare would be replaced by a dog's breakfast of tax subsidies for purchasing health insurance and personal medical savings accounts. Unemployment insurance would give way to yet another Rube Goldberg scheme of tax-favored unemployment insurance accounts. As for family leave -- well, if you're not wealthy enough to pay out of pocket for a nanny for your child or a nurse for your parent, you're out of luck.

The strongest case for economic citizenship instead of welfare corporatism is economic. Economic citizenship is more efficient and cheaper in the long run, because the government need only meet costs, while subsidized private providers must make a profit. The Democratic and Republican supporters of welfare corporatism justify their system of massive subsidies for for-profit healthcare and retirement security with the claim that market competition will keep down prices. If only that were true. Competitive markets are probably impossible to create, in the highly regulated insurance sector and the highly concentrated financial sector that sells private retirement goods and services.

It follows that a policy of subsidizing oligopolies and monopolies, via government subsidies to consumers, in the absence of government-imposed price controls, is a recipe for cost inflation, as the providers jack up their prices, sending the consumers back to Congress to demand even more public subsidies. By its very nature, welfare corporatism funnels public resources, in the form of tax breaks, to rent-seeking, predatory firms in the FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) sector, with ever-swelling dead-weight costs on the economy. Welfare corporatism equals corporate welfare.

Unfortunately, most progressives have failed to make the case against the libertarian myth of market competition in the provision of social insurance. All too many, including President Obama, have made the too-clever-by-half argument that the public option would keep prices down by means of market competition. In other words, the center-left has borrowed a bogus argument about competition from right-wing free-market fundamentalism in order to defend a token public program that ceased to be of any interest once Obama and the Democrats in Congress ruled that Americans with employer-provided insurance would be banned from joining the public option. When you're reduced to parroting the opposition's erroneous theories, in the process of begging for a slight modification of the opposition's pet program, you clearly don't have the nerve or the patience to play the long game in politics.

In a response to one of my earlier columns, Will Marshall wonders how I can dare to criticize the legacy of Bill Clinton, a Democrat. My reasons should be clear by now. I am not a partisan Democratic operative focused on winning the next election. I am interested only in strengthening the republic through a gradual expansion of economic citizenship in the tradition of Franklin Roosevelt's Second Bill of Rights. If this means criticizing Democratic presidents who expand welfare corporatism instead of economic citizenship, so be it.

As part of his opportunistic policy of triangulation between his own party and the opposition, Bill Clinton joined the Republicans in a three-pronged assault on New Deal economic citizenship. He and the Republican Congress abolished Aid to Families With Dependent Children, a flawed and unpopular means-tested program for the poor that should have been reformed as a national program rather than turned over to the states as the neo-Confederate right insisted. Instead of piecemeal expansion of single-payer healthcare, Clinton pushed a version of employer-based welfare corporatism plus subsidies that came out of the playbook of moderate Republicans like Nixon. And we now know that Clinton secretly agreed to support Newt Gingrich's drive to partly privatize Social Security, in return for dedicating the federal government's imaginary future surpluses to what was left of Social Security. In 2005, Will Marshall argued in favor of private accounts, on the grounds that they would soften up Americans for cuts in Social Security: "If today's workers start saving and investing more in stocks and bonds, the returns they earn would allow us to trim their Social Security benefits later, without reducing their overall standard of living."

While George W. Bush pushed for partial privatization of Social Security, he failed because of massive public opposition. But Bush and the Republican majority in Congress succeeded in enacting the Social Security drug benefit, a flawed but genuine expansion of economic citizenship. Clinton is the only president to have successfully supported the destruction of a New Deal entitlement, while Bush presided over the greatest expansion of the Rooseveltian entitlement system since Lyndon Johnson passed Medicare.

For his part, Barack Obama, like Bill Clinton, rejected single-payer in favor of a moderately conservative welfare corporatist approach to healthcare reform. In contrast, Obama's proposal for student loan reform, an idea discussed in the Clinton years, would move in the right direction, away from welfare corporatism and toward economic citizenship, by replacing subsidized third-party lenders with direct government provision of student loans to needy college students.

Parties are coalitions of interest groups, they are not public philosophies, and presidents, great and minor, are and have to be opportunists. In contrast, reformers only have a chance of succeeding if they stick to their basic principles and keep their eyes on the prize. Progressives should support any politician, Democrat or Republican, who expands economic citizenship to the detriment of welfare corporatism, and they should oppose any politician, Democrat or Republican, who expands welfare corporatism to the detriment of economic citizenship.

Any more questions?

31 October 2008

Schedule of States Poll Closings

Here is the schedule of the times the polls close in each state on 4 November 2008, General Election Day. All times are Mountain Standard Time.

4pm:

Indiana (EST portion)

Kentucky (EST portion)

5pm:

Florida (EST portion)

Georgia

South Carolina

Vermont

Virginia

Indiana (CST portion)

Kentucky (CST portion)

5:30:

Ohio

West Virginia
=
6pm:

Connecticut

Delaware

Dist of Columbia

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan (EST portion)

New Hampshire

New Jersey

Pennsylvania

Tennessee

Alabama

Florida (CST portion)

Illinois

Mississippi

Missouri

Oklahoma

South Dakota (CST portion)

Texas (CST portion)

6:30:

North Carolina

Arkansas

7pm:

New York

Rhode Island

Kansas (CST portion)

Louisiana

Michigan (CST portion)

Minnesota

Nebraska

Wisconsin

Arizona

Colorado

New Mexico

South Dakota (MST portion)

Texas (MST portion)

Wyoming

8pm:

Iowa

North Dakota (CST portion)

Idaho

Kansas (MST portion)

Montana

Oregon (MST portion)

Utah

Nevada

9pm:

North Dakota (MST portion)

California

Oregon (PST portion)

Washington

Hawaii

10pm:

Alaska

EST = Eastern Standard Time; CST = Central Standard Time

MST = Mountain Standard Time; PST = Pacific Standard Time

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G08/closing.phtml?format=ec

*****

27 October 2008

Newspapers Presidential Endorsements Scorecard

On a day where The Anchorage Daily News shockingly endorsed Barack Obama for President, the numbers totaled by Sunday 26 October show Obama with a nearly 3 -1 advantage in newspaper endorsements. Expect a few more to be added to his total in the coming days. And of significance is the circulation of the newspapers making the endorsements. Endorsements of John McCain strongly tend to be by those with a much smaller circulation than those that endorsed Obama. Newspaper endorsements are a very good leading indicator on what will happen in election, as history has often shown in past years.
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http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003875230
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*****

Outstanding View on Why We are in the Economic Crisis

...From the blog of accomplished journalist and author Jon Talton, entitled Rogue Columnist, posted on Friday 24 October:

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Who to Blame
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So Alan Greenspan is shocked, shocked that gambling was going on in the casino that he and his fellow radicals made of the capital markets. In his testimony before Congress Thursday, he talked about how stunned he was that the markets weren’t self-regulating, that speculation and greed led to this disaster, which he likened to a “once in a century” financial tsunami.
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But this is no act of God. The ongoing financial collapse is the direct result of the deregulation, trade, privatization and tax policies enacted by Alan Greenspan and the other rigid ideologues of the Republican Party over the past quarter of a century. The longtime Fed chairman is a disciple of the author Ayn Rand, whose advocacy of a brutal individualism has been turned into a devil-take-the-hindmost reality that would make Atlas blush.
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It’s important for the American voter to understand this. The collapse of their savings, the deferment of their retirement dreams, the loss of their homes, the decline in their earnings, the elimination of their jobs – all has been the result of very conscious policies. They were promised an "ownership society," but, as Barack Obama said, the reality is that most Americans are on their own.
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If Americans understand this, the election will not be in doubt. And, God willing, the calamity will discredit this extremist philosophy, just as happened in 1932, for decades to come. For this orthodox ideological extremism is every bit as bankrupt and failed as all its false prophet predecessors. Alan Greenspan and company, including former Sen. Phil Gramm, the great – and greatly compensated by the banking industry – deregulator and economic guru to wealthy Republican John Sidney McCain III, are the most dangerous of men: true believers.
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Perhaps this was the inevitable outcome of American conservatism. It had long slipped its ties to the small-town Republicanism of Hoover and Landon, for those small towns themselves were destroyed by the corporate power that conservatism ultimately served. It found a body of ideas from Friedman, von Mises, Hayek (who adamantly said he was not a conservative) and Rand. It found a pleasing spokesman in Ronald Reagan, a magnetic appeal in the free-lunch promise of tax cuts and grievances against government, and an opening in the exhaustion and overreaching of the Democratic, and even centrist Republican, governing consensus that existed until 1980. It then set to work, an ideology controlling the White House and/or Congress for 26 of the past 28 years.
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Yet one must note the irony, or cynical disingenuousness. This “conservatism” paid no respect to the complex and fragile tapestry of laws, institutions, customs, sacrifices, values and history that had organically and pluralistically evolved from the 1930s through the 1970s. Such respect was supposed to set conservatism apart from supposedly dogmatic socialism or idealistic liberalism. Thus, to take one small (!) example in the scheme of catastrophic policies, Gramm oversaw the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, the Depression-era banking regulation that had kept our financial system safe and sound for decades. Replacing it was a system beloved by a greedy banking industry and right-wing intellectuals, but with no beneficial foundation in real experience, especially in providing for the common good and maintaining the strong banking system it overturned. So much for conservative empiricism.
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Of course, we were dealing not with conservatives, but radicals who wanted to remake American society.
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Yet this golden-age system that evolved in the mid-20th century, more than any president or single policy, created the strong, admired and opportunity-rich America that so many of us remember. It was an America that made things, that built the greatest middle class in history, and repeatedly had the strength and judgment to free the world from tyranny while avoiding nuclear armageddon. It was built by Roosevelt and Johnson, Eisenhower and even Nixon. It meant good business and good government. It defied any ideological label.
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Without this lost America, you wouldn’t even have David Brooks’ “Patio Man,” the affluent, casual dressing suburbanite with his hatred of taxes and his myriad grievances against the very system that allowed him to rise. Without this America, the right never would have had such a forgiving (for awhile) playground for its empty promises and unsustainable policies. An America starving in the Great Depression, caused by many of the same Greenspanian policies, would have had no truck with this crowd.
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Greenspan and the Republican Party, the party that wrecked America (spread the meme), set out to systematically dismantle this system. It took time to eat away at a largely competent federal government, our schools, our manufacturing base, our hometown companies, our pensions and benefits, our job security rewarding hard work and commitment. They redistributed wealth to the richest and most politically connected, including those who have made fortunes from deregulation, the Iraq war and policies that blocked addressing climate change or our energy future. They moved jobs overseas, snookered average Americans into the Wall Street casino and hid in tax shelters.
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As the Republicans like to say, ideas have consequences.
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The consequences of this 25-year wrecking were cloaked by the old system’s resilience and the emergence of a rich technology economy. They were cloaked by the generational wealth created by the Americans who worked during the old system’s heyday – money still being passed along to the unthinking exurban duhs and ignos who would never vote for a black man. Finally, it was cloaked by a series of bubbles and financial swindles, culminating in the housing vortex that drew in millions of Americans, a great society become a casino society.
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Sure, the world changed too – especially with the rise of China and the emergence of Islamic extremism and peak oil. But this right-wing philosophy, which can explain things only with a tax cut, fear-mongering and labeling their opponents as “anti-American” – was singularly unsuited to address it. Conservatism can’t handle complexity.
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Now the reckoning. America can recover, but only if it understands the damage done – and who did it. And says, “Never again.”
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*
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I have yet to see or read anything anywhere else that so eloquently, clearly, and convincingly explains our national economic circumstances of today and the background why. Talton nails everything dead on.
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*****

Latest Election '08 Outlook

The 2008 General Elections are now but a little more than a week away. Trends that have been in place since mid - September continue as all polling and analysis show a clear and convincing Barack Obama victory over John McCain next Tuesday night. The Electoral College will likely go to Obama by a better than 2 - 1 margin, and a 3-1 margin with an excess of 400 electoral votes for Obama is now more than a possibility.

It now is certain all nineteen states (and the District of Columbia) that were in the John Kerry column in 2004 will even more strongly support Senator Obama. But quite a few states that supported George Bush in '04 will be switching to Obama. These states that are now viewed as switching are VA, NC, FL, OH, IA, MO, CO, NM, and NV. Other states that may switch to Democratic this election include IN, WV, GA, MS, AR, MT, ND, and SD. In addition, states like TX, LA, and even Senator McCain's home state of AZ are not totally out of the question of switching over to the Democrat side. McCain will win the states of ID, UT, WY, NE, KS, OK, AL, SC, TN, and KY without question. Worst case scenario for McCain would be an electoral landslide defeat by 469 - 69, but it is strongly likely he will still receive over 100 electoral votes.

There still remains scenarios where McCain does pull the upset with the ugly specter of racism that may reveal itself when people get down to the final moment and have to make a decision. If enough of these disgusting voters emerge in the key states of NV, CO, IN, OH, MO, VA, NC, and FL to keep these states in the red for Republicans, McCain would squeak out a narrow victory by a 274 - 264 margin. Lose even one of those states and the victory goes to Obama.

The US Senate races are also strongly trending Democratic. It strongly appears to analysts the Democrats will pick up a minimum of eight seats (AK. OR, CO, NM, NH, VA, NC, and MN) for a vastly expanded 59 - 41 margin which includes the two independents in VT and CT that caucus with the Democrats. Contests for Senate seats are also strongly in play in four other states (MS, GA, KY, and TX), but the GOP incumbent is likely to retain the seat in each case. And upsets, although strongly improbable, are still possible in ME and NE. But the overall direction is strongly Democratic across the nation and history shows once unimaginable and still improbable upsets are likely to occur in at least a few of these six states. In 1980, in a similar sea change election like this one is going to be, twelve Democratic incumbents were ousted from the US Senate. 1920, 1932, and 1948 were similar elections. A Senate with 60 - 62 Democrats would not be surprising.

The US House appears to be on track for a gain of 25 seats for the Democrats with estimates ranging from the low 20s on the bottom side to perhaps as many as 33 seats on the top end of analysis. Once again, history shows upsets will happen as the trends are working strongly against Republicans this election; a gain for the Democrats that exceeds 35 and even nears 40 would not be a shock. In 1980 the GOP picked up 34 seats in the House. 1904, 1912, 1920, 1932, 1948, and 1964 were also elections with long presidential coattails. A US House of Representatives that is seated in 2009 that nears a 2 - 1 margin for Democrats is a distinct possibility.

There will be eleven states that are holding elections for a governor next Tuesday. Six of the seats are currently held by Democrats and five by Republicans. The Republicans figure to hold on to seats in ND, UT, VT, and IN. Democrats are viewed as keeping seats in WA, NC, DE, MT, NH, and WV. There looks to be a switch in MO with the retirement of Republican Matt Blunt to a Democrat with Jay Nixon, the former Missouri Attorney General, viewed as likely to win the guberanatorial race in The Show Me State. Upsets are possible for Democrats in VT and IN, but unlikely. The GOP is hoping for upsets in WA and NC.

There are many ballot issues on a number of states across the nation in this election. Some are of great controversy, such as the homosexual marriage issues in California, Florida, and Arizona; and labor and worker issues in Colorado. Setting limitations on abortion are on the ballot in CA, CO, and SD. Anti-affirmative action measures are on ballots in CO and NE; immigration questions are up for consideration in MO, KS, and OR; and ballot choices concerning campaign finance reform are to be made in AR, CO, OR, and SD. A database of all ballot measures can be found here.

There are a large number of state legislative seats up for election, as there are 7.382 state legislators across the US, although many will not be up for election at this time. Local elections on the county, local, and municipal level are also being held, although they are not as numerous during a federal election. Included in these elections will be various officials in executive, legislative, judicial, and administrative positions.

Eight days until Election Day. Many citizens have already voted using absentee ballots and early voter options, including this writer. We should have many results starting in about 210 hours from the time this posted is being completed (1:15am MDT, Monday 27 October).

*****

26 October 2008

From The Age of Triumphalism to The Age of Salvaging What is Left

...From Andrew J. Bacevich in the Sunday 26 October edition of the Los Angeles Times...

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The Age of Triumphalism is over

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Americans are no longer in the mood to chase after distant evildoers.

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By Andrew J. Bacevich

October 26, 2008

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All but lost amid the hullabaloo of the presidential campaign, the State Department recently dropped North Korea from its list of state sponsors of terrorism. Kim Jong Il pocketed a concession that even a year ago would have seemed unimaginable. The American people -- feeling more threatened by Wall Street than by Pyongyang -- managed barely a shrug.

Seldom has a historic turning point received such little notice. By cutting a deal with a charter member of the "axis of evil," President Bush has definitively abandoned the principles that he staked out in the wake of 9/11. The president who once defined America's purpose as "ending tyranny" is now accommodating the world's last authentically Stalinist regime. Although Bush still inhabits the White House, the Bush era has effectively ended.

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Of greater significance, so too has the latest in a series of American psychodramas. In the last year or so, the nation's collective mind-set has shifted, and with that shift have come dramatic changes in the way we see ourselves and the world beyond our borders.

The American preference for packaging history as a sequence of great events directed by great men tends to overlook the role played by mass psychology and by the powerful impulses contained within what we commonly call public opinion. The reality is that when it comes to statecraft, policies devised in Washington frequently express not so much the carefully calculated intentions of the nation's leaders as the people's frame of mind.

President James Polk, for instance, came into office in 1845 determined to separate California from Mexico. Yet what enabled Polk to convert ambition into action was the concept of Manifest Destiny -- the popular conviction that it had become incumbent on Americans to spread freedom westward to the Pacific Ocean. Polk didn't invent Manifest Destiny and didn't really control it, but he shrewdly offered this deeply felt urge an outlet, thereby transforming what might otherwise have seemed a naked land-grab into a righteous crusade. The result was the immensely successful Mexican War.

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Similarly, in 1898, through war with Spain, the United States acquired an empire, annexing Puerto Rico, the Philippines and Hawaii. But it was popular fervor for liberating oppressed Cubans, not President William McKinley's hankering for colonies, that convinced millions of Americans that Spain's continued presence in the Caribbean was simply intolerable. Supplanting Spanish power with American power had become a moral imperative. All McKinley had to do was give his assent, neatly tapping into the prevailing zeitgeist to further his agenda.

The problem for policymakers is that the zeitgeist can change suddenly and without warning. President Woodrow Wilson discovered this shortly after World War I, when Americans who had enthusiastically enlisted in his campaign to "make the world safe for democracy" abruptly lost interest and yearned for a return to "normalcy." Accurately gauging the shift in the popular mood, the Senate voted in 1919 not to join the League of Nations in which Wilson had invested such hopes. The president was left high and dry.

George W. Bush has experienced a similar fate. His presidency began with the Age of American Triumphalism at its zenith. When Bush entered office in 2001, America's status as sole superpower was self-evident and seemingly irrefutable. As the indispensable nation, the United States presided over a unipolar order. The emery board of globalization was sanding away the world's rough edges and gradually remaking it in America's own image. Commentators vied to find the appropriate historical analogy. The consensus: America was the new Rome, only more so.

Bush's response to 9/11 reflected this widespread sense of assurance and entitlement. The Bush doctrine of preventive war, the president's impatient, with-us-or-against-us attitude, his disdain for international opinion and international law, his confidence that American military power, once unleashed, would quickly bring evildoers to justice or justice to evildoers -- and above all his conviction that the people of the Islamic world thirsted for freedom American-style -- all of these made explicit precepts that had been germinating during the post-Cold War decade of the 1990s. Bush was merely expressing in a crude vernacular -- "Bring 'em on!" -- ideas and attitudes to which the majority of Americans already subscribed.

Today those ideas and attitudes have become the equivalent of an oversized SUV: They no longer sell. Not least among Bush's errors in judgment has been his failure to appreciate just how ephemeral the Age of Triumphalism would prove to be. Having discovered that being the new Rome entails burdens as well as privileges, Americans have opted out. Although Bush's wars continue in Iraq and Afghanistan, Joe the Plumber's interest in liberating the greater Middle East or courting a showdown even with a figure as vile as Kim Jong Il is close to zero. Americans are no longer in the mood to chase after distant evildoers. They care about jobs, affordable energy, decent healthcare and restoring their 401(k) accounts. Fix what's broken abroad? No thanks; not until we've fixed what's broken at home. This defines the new normalcy.

The central theme of the presidential election is change, with both John McCain and Barack Obama promising to radically overhaul the way Washington works. In a real sense, however, change has already occurred. Even before the people have voted, they have spoken. The Age of Triumphalism has ended. The Age of Salvaging What's Left is upon us.

Andrew J. Bacevich is professor of history and international relations at Boston University. He is the author of "The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism."

A superb profound and revealing analysis of where we are on the world stage relative to history. This election has now become all but exclusively about domestic economic issues, a stunning shift from just mere months ago.

I wrote about Bacevich previously in a blog post I made on Sunday 24 August 2008 concerning his excellent aforementioned cited book, "The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism."

*****

25 October 2008

2008 US House Election Outlook for Mountain West Region

With Election Day mere days away, here is a look at the races for all the US House of Representatives seats across the eight state Mountain West region. Currently Republicans hold 17 of the 28 seats in Congress from the region. But results from the upcoming election may either tilt the representation to the Democratic side or at worst leave it tied at 14 apiece. Seats that may turnover to Democrats could be in Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, and Wyoming. Nine seats across the region are being vacated by the sitting incumbent for the election. Most polling data shows these seats that are possible for turnover as being very tightly contested.

Here is a look at each of the US House of Representatives contests throughout the Mountain West States region.

ARIZONA:

Eight seats; currently four Democrats, four Republicans

District One: This district spans northern and eastern Arizona, including the Navaho, Hopi, and Apache Indian Reservations and consists of mostly small towns and Flagstaff. Incumbent GOP Congressman Rick Renzi is not running for re-election, having been indicted on a number of federal criminal charges and awaiting trial. Republican Sydney Ann Hay, a mining industry lobbyist, is facing Democrat Ann Kilpatrick. Most observers believe Kilpatrick will edge Hay to win the seat, a pickup for the Democrats.

District Two: This oddly shaped district, obviously gerrymandered by the Arizona Legislature at the expense of Tucson, sprawls from north central Arizona to the northwest part of the state and into the northern and western part of the Phoenix metro area. Three term incumbent GOP Representative Trent Franks will win re-election easily ove Democratic challenger John Thrasher.

District Three: This district covers the northern Phoenix suburbs on both sides of I-17 in Maricopa County. Incumbent GOP Congressman John Shadegg has represented the district since 1995. He announced early on he would not run for re-election but later changed his mind after pleas from Republicans officials and supporters. The Democratic challenger is Bob Lord and there is also is a noteworthy independent running in Annie Loyd. Shadegg should hold onto his seat but an upset by Lord is not an impossibility.

District Four: This district is made up of Central Phoenix and inner older suburbs like Glendale and adjacent areas to the immediate southwest and west of the city's heart. Democrat Ed Pastor has been the congressman for this district since winning the seat initially in the 1990 election, which means he will be seeking a tenth term. Another victory by Pastor is a certainty in the most Democratic part of Arizona as GOP opponent Dan Karg will be routed by a better than 2-1 margin.

District Five: This district represents the northeastern suburbs of the Phoenix metro area and includes Scottsdale and northeast Phoenix. Democrat Harry Mitchell is running for re-election after his surprising upset win over Republican rightwing extremist and former sportscaster JD Hayworth in 2006. The opposition for Mitchell this time comes from former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert. Most observers believe Mitchell win re-election by a close margin.

District Six: This district covers the East Valley of the Phoenix area and includes strongly conservative areas like Mesa and Apache Junction, as well as fast growing Chandler and Gilbert. Republican incumbent Jeff Flake has been in Congress since 2001 and is seeking his fifth term. Rebecca Schneider is the Democratic opposition, but Flake will prevail with better than 60 % of the vote.

District Seven: This district spans the vast southwestern part of Arizona and includes Yuma, parts of west Tucson, and the Indian reservations across the region. It is a district with a majority Hispanic. Incumbent Democrat Raul Grijalva is seeking his fourth term against Republican challenger Joseph Sweeney. The election will result in a rather wide victory by the incumbent Democrat Grijalva.

District Eight: This district covers southeast Arizona. Up and coming Democrat Gabrielle Giffords is a first term incumbent running for re-election against Republican challenger Jeff Bee in a district that is largely evenly split among Democrats and Republicans. Giffords should win re-election by at least six percentage points.

COLORADO:

Seven seats; currently four Democrats, three Republicans

District One: This district covers the city of Denver and adjacent areas. Incumbent Democrat Diana DeGette is running for her seventh term, having been initially elected in 1996. George Lilly is the token Republican opposition, and DeGette will cruise to another very easy re-election.

District Two: This district includes Boulder and the far northern Denver suburbs along with the wealthy mountain areas along I-70 west of Denver including Vail and Eagle County. Incumbent Mark Udall is running for the open US Senate seat in Colorado. The aspirant to succeed him is Democrat Jared Polis, whom will win easily over the Republican challenger Scott Starin.

District Three: This district covers all of western and southern Colorado, including the cities of Pueblo, Trinidad, Durango, Craig, and Grand Junction. John Salazar, brother of Ken, a US Senator from Colorado, is running for re-election after winning the seat initially in 2006. Expect John Salazar to easily win re-election over his Republican opponent Wayne Wolf.

District Four: This district spans all of eastern Colorado as well as areas in the northern part of the state and includes the rapidly growing areas of the Northern Front Range of Fort Collins, Greeley, and southwest Weld county. Incumbent Republican Marilyn Musgrave is seeking her fourth term after initially winning the seat in 2002. But Democratic challenger Betsy Markey is increasingly being seen as probably winning the seat and upsetting Musgrave, ending four terms of controversy often generated by GOP incumbent. A Democratic pickup is looking very likely at this point.

District Five: This district represents Colorado Springs and adjacent areas west and east. Long a conservative Republican bastion, this election should still prove the same. First term Congressman Doug Lamborn will win re-election over Democratic Hal Bidlack in a contest that may be closer than expected due to many things, including Lamborn's lackluster performance thus far and his sleazy and controversial efforts that have strongly divided the party in his district.

District Six: This district covers the southern and western suburbs of the Denver metro area. Incumbent Republican Tom Tancredo is retiring after five terms. Mike Coffman, the Colorado State Treasurer is endeavoring to succeed him. His challenger is Democrat Hank Eng. Coffman will win the seat by a comfortable margin.

District Seven: This district is made up of the older inner suburbs closest to Denver. First time incumbent Ed Perlmutter is seeking a second term against GOP challenger John Lerew. Perlmutter will win re-election rather easily.

IDAHO:

Two seats; currently both Republican

District One: This district covers much of Boise, most of its suburbs, as well as all of western and northern Idaho. Bill Sali is seeking a second term for the seat, but Democratic challenger Walt Minnick is being increasingly viewed as having enough strength to knock off the incumbent,which could make this another Democratic pickup.

District Two: This district includes all of eastern and south central Idaho. Republican incumbent Mike Simpson is seeking his sixth term, having been initially elected in 1998. His Democratic opponent is Deborah Holmes, a political newcomer. Simpson will win re-election rather easily in this overwhelmingly conservative Mormon district.

MONTANA:

One at-large seat; currently Republican

This is a district which covers the entire state. Incumbent Republican Denny Rehberg is running for a fifth term having been initially elected in 2000. He will score an easy victory over Democratic challenger John Driscoll, a former legislator and State of Montana Public Service Commissioner.

NEVADA:

Three seats; currently one Democratic, two Republican

District One: This district is made up of Las Vegas and nearby areas in unincorporated Clark County. Five term Democratic incumbent Shelley Berkley is being opposed by Republican challenger Ken Wegner. Berkley will coast to an easy victory.

District Two: This district spans most of the rest of Nevada including Reno, Washoe County, and Carson City. First term incumbent Republican Dean Heller is running for a second term against Democratic challenger Jill Derby, a University of Nevada Regent. This race is nearly a tossup with Heller a slight favorite to retain his seat, but a win by Derby is also a strong possiblility.

District Three: This district covers areas in outlying Clark County such as Henderson, Boulder City, and Laughlin; as well as Pahrump in Nye County. Republican incumbent Jon Porter is seeking his fourth term, having being initially elected in 2oo2 when the district was established. He is facing a strong challenge by Democrat Dana Titus, the Nevada State Senate Minority Leader. Most observers believe at this time Titus will oust Porter, making this seat another likely Democratic pickup.

NEW MEXICO:

Three seats; currently two Republicans, one Democrat

District One: This district covers the Albuquerque metro area, Torrance County, and the eastern part of Valencia County. Republican incumbent Heather Wilson opted to run (unsuccessfully) for the open US Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici and thus created an open seat. Democrat Martin Heinrich is opposed by Republican Darren White. The race is viewed as a tossup with Heinrich a very slight favorite at this point. A Heinrich win would mean another Democratic pickup of a seat.

District Two: This district spans all of southern New Mexico as well as much of the west and east parts of the state. Incumbent Steve Pearce is vacating the seat to run for the US Senate seat that Pete Domenici is retiring from. The two contestants for the open seat are Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Ed Tinsley. This race is also viewed larely as a tossup with Tinsley a very slight favorite to hold this seat for Republicans. If Teague wins, this would be another Democratic pickup.

District Three: This district is made up of all of northern New Mexico and most of northeastern New Mexico. Democratic incumbent Tom Udall is vacating the seat to also run for the seat Domenici is vacating in the US Senate. Looking to succeed Udall is Democrat Ben Lujan and Republican Dan East. An easy victory in this overwhelmingly Hispanic and Native American populated district by Lujan is certain.

UTAH:

Three seats, currently two Republicans, one Democrat

District One: This district covers north and northwest Utah including the northwest parts of the Salt Lake City metro area. Incumbent Republican Rob Bishop is running for his fourth term and will win decisively over Democratic challenger Morgan Bowen.

District Two: This district spans most of Utah, the eastern and southern parts of the state as well as the eastern part of Salt Lake County. Incumbent moderate Democrat Jim Matheson is being opposed by Republican Bill Dew, and Matheson will win a fifth term with a comfortable margin of victory.

District Three: This district is made up of western Utah and most of the Salt Lake metro area. Six term incumbent Republican Chris Cannon was defeated in the 2008 Utah Republican Primary by challenger Jason Chaffetz, chief of staff for Utah Governor Jon Huntsman. The Democratic aspirant for the seat is Bennion Spencer. Cheffetz will without doubt hold the seat successfully for the GOP.

WYOMING:

One at-large seat, currently Republican

This is a district which represents the entire state. Sometimes contentious and controversial incumbent Republican Barbara Cubin, who has held the seat for seven terms, is retiring. Vying to succeed her is Democrat Gary Trauner, defeated in 2006 by Cubin by less than 1,000 votes; and Republican challenger Cynthia Lummis, largely a clone of Cubin. Current analysis gives Trauner a very slim lead for the seat. A Trauner win would be another Democratic pickup.

If things fall positively, Democrats could pick up as many eight seats, and ten is not impossible. Such a vast swing from the current 17-11 GOP margin to a 19-8 or more Democratic margin would mark an epic sea change for the region and an entirely new focus on issues, problems, and challenges all but ignored by the GOP dominated representation in recent years. If this switch does occur to this extent, expect an emphasis on urban and suburban mass transit; rural rail transit; highway and road improvements and upgrades; conservation and land preservation; more careful and cautioned old energy development and a strong focus on new and renewable energy; improvements on wildlife management; increases in funding for national parks and other federal lands; and a focus on educational opportunities and financial assistance for both children and adults. Other issues of a new importance and eminence will also quickly emerge with both a domestic and foreign perspective.

We will all find out soon what eventuates on Tuesday 4 November and shortly thereafter.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2008

*****

21 October 2008

The Death of the Republican Party as It has Been the Last 44 Years

From Richard Cohen of the Washington Post, Tuesday 21 October edition:

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A column, like a good movie, should have an arc -- start here, end there and somehow connect the two points. So this column will begin with the speech Condi Rice made to the Republican National Convention in 2000 in praise of George W. Bush and end with Colin Powell's appearance Sunday on "Meet the Press" in praise of Barack Obama. Between the first and the second lie the ruins of the GOP, a party gone very, very wrong.
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It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Bush and now John McCain have constructed a mean, grumpy, exclusive, narrow-minded and altogether retrograde Republican Party. It has the sharp scent of the old Barry Goldwater GOP -- the angry one of 1964 and not the one perfumed by nostalgia -- that is home, by design or mere dumb luck, to those who think that Obama is "The Madrassian Candidate." Karl Rove, take a bow.
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It is worth remembering that both Rice and Powell spoke at that Philadelphia convention. And it is worth recalling, too, that Bush ran as a "compassionate conservative" and had compiled a record as Texas governor to warrant the hope, if not the belief, that he was indeed a different sort of Republican. When he ran for reelection as governor in 1998, he went from 15 percent of the black vote to 27 percent, and from 28 percent of the Hispanic vote to an astounding 49 percent. Here was a coalition-builder of considerable achievement.
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Now, all this is rubble. It is not merely that Barack Obama was always going to garner the vast majority of the black vote. It is also that the GOP, under Rove and his disciples in the McCain campaign, has not only driven out ethnic and racial minorities but a vast bloc of voters who, quite bluntly, want nothing to do with Sarah Palin. For moderates everywhere, she remains the single best reason to vote against McCain.
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But the GOP's tropism toward its furiously angry base, its tolerance and currying of anti-immigrant sentiment, its flattering of the ignorant on matters of undisputed scientific consensus -- evolution, for instance -- and, from the mouth of Palin, its celebration of drab provincialism, have sharpened the division between red and blue. Red is the color of yesterday.
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Ah, I know, the blues are not all virtuous. They are supine before self-serving unions, particularly in education, and they are knee-jerk opponents of offshore drilling, mostly, it seems, because they don't like Big Oil. They cannot face the challenge of the Third World within us -- the ghetto with its appalling social and cultural ills -- lest realism be called racism. Sometimes, too, they seem to criticize American foreign policy simply because it is American.
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Still, a Democrat can remain a Democrat -- or at least vote as one -- without compromising basic intellectual or cultural values. That, though, is not what Colin Powell was saying Sunday about his own party. "I have some concerns about the direction that the party has taken in recent years," Powell said. "It has moved more to the right than I would like." He cited McCain's harping on that "washed-out terrorist" Bill Ayers as an effort to exploit fears that Obama is a Muslim (so what if he were? Powell rightly asked) and mentioned how Palin's presence on the ticket raised grave questions about McCain's judgment. In effect -- and at least for the time being -- Powell was out of the GOP. S'long, guys.
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Those of us who traveled with Bush in the 2000 campaign could tell that when he spoke of education, of the "soft bigotry of low expectations," he meant it. Education, along with racial and ethnic reconciliation, was going to be his legacy. Then came Sept. 11, Afghanistan and finally the misbegotten war in Iraq. After that, nothing else really mattered. But just as Bush could not manage the wars, he could not manage his own party. His legacy is not merely in tatters. It does not even exist.
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In the end, Powell was determined not to be one of the GOP's useful idiots. Those moderates willing to overlook the choice of Palin, those capable of staying in a party where, soon enough, she could be an important or dominant force, retain the intellectual nimbleness that enabled them to persist in championing a war fought for duplicitous reasons and extol cultural values they do not for a minute share. Powell walked away from that, and others will follow -- the second time that a senator from Arizona has led the GOP into the political wilderness.
-----
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...Some may proclaim vehemently the falseness of this column. I would disagree. And I believe Cohen will be strongly validated about two weeks from now.
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*****

20 October 2008

Fifteen Days to Election Day 2008

Really, it cannot get hear soon enough. This eternally lasting campaign is finally nearing the end. The outlook at this moment is for an Obama victory, with an electoral college vote total that will exceed 350 and probably more. Although some polls may show a tightening of the race this week, any chances for a McCain upset victory are probably not realistic. But one factor could result in an unexpected change in the anticipated and scientifically researched polling and projected results. No one is certain how much of a role racism will play in the end. It cannot be fully foreseen and understood what people will do when the moment of truth arrives behind the curtains in the voting booth. Some suggest it may tip the election by as much as six to eight percentage points towards McCain. If this turns out to be more, an upset could happen, but much depends on where these tainted votes will be taking place. If they are in key battleground states such as OH, NC, VA, FL, IN, WV, CO, MO, PA, and NV, enough of these racist votes could tip the final electoral vote to McCain. Lets hope this ugliness is far less than anticipated and certainly less than feared by some.

As for the US Senate, it appears there is a reasonable chance for the Democrats to reach the magical 60 number which will allow them to have procedural control and limit fillibusters. At this time it looks as if Democrats will gain seats in OR, NM, CO, MN, NH, VA, AK, and NC with additional gains in KY, GA, MS, and TX also possible. Republicans will hold onto seats in NE, KS, OK, WY, MS, and ID. There is no current Democratic seat in the Senate in danger of switching to the GOP.

In the US House, most analysts are projecting a gain in seats for Democrats between 15 and 23 seats which could result in 250 seats in the House for Democrats.

The states still in play for electoral votes for the presidency according to most observers are NV, CO, MT, ND, MO, AR, GA, FL, NC, VA, IN, OH, and NH. It seems to me that most of those states will end up in the Obama camp when all the votes are counted, but GA and AR would seem to less than 50-50 at this time unlike the other ten states being viewed as up for grabs.

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It will be interesting to see how it all ends up, but the day of decision cannot get here soon enough. Thank goodness we have the promise of an exciting World Series to help seriously distract us the next week and a half...
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*****

19 October 2008

Get Ready for A Climate Jolt Soon

The news of methane venting into the atmosphere from the seabed of the Arctic Ocean as well as reports of other significant methane releases from lands previously deeply frozen below the surface such as in Alaska and Siberia is very disturbing. This is like pouring gasoline into a fire. A jolt in the climate globally that will include a spike upward in temperatures, altered patterns of moisture and rainfall, and the formation of unanticipated and more numerous than normal powerful storms such as tornados, hurricanes, typhoons, and blizzards is likely to occur over the next several years. Expect severe disruptions in the lives of people; local and regional economies; agriculture and livestock; as well as noteworthy tragic destructive property damage and loss of life. Add into the mix the continuing and growing pollution from manmade sources and this situation looks further grim.
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http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/exclusive-the-methane-time-bomb-938932.html
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*****

18 October 2008

What Does Not Contribute to America: Most Corporations

This is absolutely disgusting and disgraceful. At least two percent of all corporate revenues and 35 % of corporate profits should be going into federal, state, and local treasuries to contribute to the well being and improved standard of living for all Americans. The amounts of the mandated funds should be indexed based on each corporation's bottom line, revenues, market share, and how much they are involved in operations overseas. Out of nation corporations should be paying a greater amount than domestically based corporations.
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The proposals by James Gustave Speth, an academician at Yale, in his recent book, are a substantive start in addressing the disease of corporations on our society and mankind.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1249465620080812?sp=true
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http://www.thebridgeattheedgeoftheworld.com/about-the-book/
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http://www.commondreams.org/view/2008/10/19-5
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*****

11 October 2008

One Hundred Days to Go and Counting !

Yes, we only have but 100 days left of the seemingly eternal and ev

er destructive Bush Junta and administration. The time cannot elapse fast enough or soon enough. But a lot of bad and unfortunate developments still remain to occur in these closing days, and some of them will be downright unbelievable and incredible. Its too bad they cannot just fade away into the blackness of history sooner than later.
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http://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/ap/20081011/twl-bush-100-days-left-1be00ca.html

"It's the End of the World as We Have Known It, and Not Too Many of Us are Feeling Fine !"

This was the worst week financially for the world in our lifetimes and in memory (unless one was born before 1920): at least since the early to late 1930s. Indices across the board lost about 20 % of their value in just several days, making their cumulative losses around 40 % and more in the last year. The outlook ahead is not promising whatsoever. The foundations of capitalist economies have turned to slop and the news ahead will be even more troubling and startling to most. The basis of the looming bad news will be continued declines in home values, slumping home sales, increasing unemployment, reports of business failures and setbacks, collapses of banks both nationally and abroad, and perhaps most importantly, the beginning of the consequences of wild financial instruments such as derivatives and credit default swaps that reportedly total tens of trillions of dollars that will swamp the financial and banking institutions across the planet with oceans of red ink and losses that are all but incomprehensible. Markets everywhere are in a panic and a meltdown. And credit remains completely unavailable as those markets are being described as totally frozen.

Most people that have any sensibility have already pulled much of their money from the collapsing markets and put their financial assets wisely into islands of relative security such as banks and treasury bills and notes, while others have put their money unwisely under a mattress or other perceived kind of safe place. Sensible people have ceased spending money on all but essentials and only on the minimal of pleasures; in essence they are hoarding their cash and trying to be prepared as much as possible for the immediate future in light of the ongoing crash and the uncertain major side effects that may occur. Anyone buying real estate, making large purchases such as automobiles and appliances, making investments on anything (except for gold), and wasting money on trivial and selfish foolish pursuits is absolutely stupid at this time.

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Financial experts and world leaders are conferencing in hopes of finding an answer to this crash and crisis, but it is probable they will not go beyond what steps have already been taken. Here in the US, we have a lame duck administration ( in more ways than one) that is already impotent and without the political will, capital, or standing to do anything further or meaningful. With a national election coming in slightly more than three weeks, the time for massive changes to be made by the Bush people has now past. Changes will come, but not until after the inauguration of Barack Obama in January. Some small policy actions make take place in the interim, as a secondary financial incentive program is being bandied about by Democratic leadership in Congress, but it is by no means a certainty and probably will not be enacted until after Thanksgiving at the earliest and what it will consist of is still be to be specifically determined and strongly subject to political bickering, infighting, and horse trading. One thing is for certain: any legislation that does make it out of the Congress will be swollen with pork and earmarks as in the recent bailout bill, as is any and all legislation for that matter.

What will develop in the coming few years will be serious reforms and legal measures to deal with the crash and crisis and all of its origins and consequences . One important measure that must occur is a serious restucturing of our tax system that ends the long free ride wealthy elites and corporations have been on with out paying what is fair into the federal as well as state treasuries. A just progressive tax system hopefully will be put into place in 2009. There are a number of other serious reforms to our economic system that must be implimented.

The absolutely amazing thing about all this is the all but complete repudiation and surrender of Absolutist Market Capitalism by powerful and influential individuals throughout business and government. This was completely unimaginable just a few months ago. The frightening thing, however, is a worse development: State Capitalism, where taxpayer money is directly invested into banks and other financial institutions in a desparate move to save capitalism as a viable economic system. This move has grave consequences in the future for the middle class, working class, and poor, as democracy is sure to suffer under such a system with a loss of rights, liberties, and freedoms in order to satisfy the state capitalists and their clients. Many of these people are criminals or abettors to criminals directly or indirectly responsible for our current crisis and crash and should be dealt with harshly including prison time and virtual complete personal assets forfeiture.

How bad will things get during the week of 13 to 18 October 2008 ? I hope I am incorrect, but I foresee the Dow Jones Index dropping below 7000, perhaps even 6500; the S & P 500 dropping beneath 500; and the NASDAQ sinking to less than 1200. Other indices will be as ugly in their continuing downturns.

And we still will not be at the bottom of all of this, nor will we anytime soon. The worst is yet to come...

http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2008/10/markets_stampede_lower_global.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/global-leaders-race-clock-imf/story.aspx?guid=%7B44FEA396%2D12FB%2D4643%2DAEDA%2D4E49E9055338%7D

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/two-banks-fold-bringing-total/story.aspx?guid=%7BAF8863CB%2D2A8C%2D4454%2D8CCA%2D8C1D3A0A798B%7D&dist=TNMostRead

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7BE4BCBB28%2D4481%2D4EFD%2D82A1%2DBCFE9D1D11C2%7D&siteid=djm_HAMWRSSCommH

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7BDAB94197%2DFAE3%2D4641%2D9B90%2DFD7A5A0319E6%7D&siteid=djm_HAMWRSSCommH

*****

07 October 2008

Has the Economy Globally Gone into Panic ?

The news from stock and bond markets as well as other corners of the financial world was particularly bad Monday as indices across the board sank precipitously. Some even speculate the economy has gone past a simple downturn to that of a panic. The decline of the major indices in the US stock markets has been stunning. The best known of the indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) peaked at 14,164 on 9 October 2007. 364 days later, the index has plummeted by 4,209 or 29.7 %. Other indices have sunk as precipitously. The NASDAQ index hit 2,861 on 31 October 2007. Since then it has dived by 999 points to 1,862, a 34.9 % plunge. The widely based S & P 500 index peaked at 1,576 on 11 October 2007. 362 days later it has dropped by 520 points to 1.056, a drop of 33.0 %.

The amounts these and other indices have declined in less than one year's time are all but unprecedented. Looking back in history, the only time that indices have declined greater than this have occurred was during the Great Depression from 1929 to 1938. Obviously market values are much greater today than in the past so the raw dollar amounts lost in the last year are probably at least nearing a par with those suffered in the first years of the Great Depression and may have exceeded them.
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In spite of the big Federal Bailout passed by Congress and signed into law by President Bush late last week, confidence in the economy both in the US and across the globe continues to weaken fast and furiously. The bailout dollars have yet to be placed into the economy, and there are increasing questions as to whether this will help at all. Banks have fully stopped moving money between themselves, basically hoarding cash, even as the Federal Reserve pumps near $1 trillion dollars into the system by simply printing more money.
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Is a bank run in the future ? Some would say yes, but it would seem unlikely given the full federal protection and insurance of account balances that was bumped up to $200K as part of the bailout legislation last week. However, some will withdraw cash from financial institutions to protect themselves as well as to be prepared for a worse scenario, imaginary or not.
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Expect further noteworthy declines in indices to continue this week and beyond. The DJI should drop below 9,000; the NASDAQ to below 1,600; and the S & P 500 drop beneath 950. Commodity prices should continue to decrease with the exception of gold. And news of some new bank failures probably looms later this week. And the unemployment numbers as well as reports on spending and other key economic indicators will be downright frightening as they are made public in the coming weeks.
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The recession is definitively here, if there were still any questions. The bigger questions are whether economies here at home and globally will sink into a depression, a clear possibility now -- although still less than 50-50 at this point. Additional radical actions are under consideration by the US Federal Reserve as well as governments in Europe and elsewhere.
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In many places, people are starting to become panicked.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSTRE4952D220081006
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http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/10/meltdown-part-i.html
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/06/AR2008100603249.html?hpid=topnews
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http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/07/business/07markets.html?_r=1&hp=&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1223377210-sgiSXyqhOeJoDl%20me2aPJg&pagewanted=all
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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/wall_street;_ylt=AgsQfJ1A8eRm3l51LMZd99Ks0NUE
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-treasury-take-new-steps/story.aspx?guid=%7B80A62574%2D3F24%2D471C%2D8AD0%2D499AE370245A%7D
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*****

04 October 2008

Arctic Ocean Region Reaches New Historic Ice Level Low

Research and analysis of the Arctic ice cap region is showing the amount of ice has reached a new record low in recent observed history. The record low level of ice in 2008 breaks the prior record set just in 2007. This trend is highly disturbing. While it is not possible to firmly forecast future years and if and how much further shrink will occur, it is almost impossible not to believe the cap will continue to diminish and perhaps precipitously. Some scientists see the strong probability of an ice free North Pole and most of the adjacent seas as soon as 2012 or 2013 during summer months. The ramifications of the melt thus far is likely to be a winter that has less cold extremes and with differing patterns of snowfall or rainfall. While that may be a positive for some, it will be disastrous for others in respect to crops, wildlife, fisheries, forests, and hunting. This rapid meltoff of Arctic ice is the most visible sign of global warming and climate change, and the looming possibillity of massive methane releases from newly thawed soils on the surface as well as the seabed could jolt global warming to extremes in a matter of a few years that are largely unimaginable by most. Stay tuned, its going to be a very, very bumpy ride.
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http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=5941683&page=1
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http://www.physorg.com/news141322790.html
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http://www.enn.com/ecosystems/article/38328
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*****

Bailout Succeeds in Congress Using Pork and Earmarks

The US House of Representatives passed the Wall Street Bailout Bill on Friday, two days after the US Senate did so and four days after the House initially rejected it. Why the change ? It was due to usual and regular practice of adding pork and earmarks to the legislation, or what really is extortion and bribery for the rest of us. Unfortunately this is only the first step in a probably long process of trying to right the American economy, particularly the credit markets. Some economists believe this legislation is doomed to fail, or simply will not be enough to reverse direction. One should expect the incoming President and Congress to revisit this issue rather quickly in 2009, and the bailout dollars total will probably exceed $2 trillion. Some of that money may be recouped from the sale of assets acquired by the government in the legislation, but it will be nowhere near what the initial and subsequent outlays have and will be. After all, the housing market is nowhere near bottom yet and most areas in the nation still have a ways to go before the declines in housing values reach bottom and become more historically related to prevailing wages and salaries. Housing values have dropped by anywhere from 5 % to one - third depending on the market, and it is likely these declining values will have to reach a basically final total decline of 15 % to 60 %. This likely future decline of housing values with its consequences of foreclosure and abandonment of real assets by owners will keep this initial bailout from accomplishing the desired full effects as has been promised by Bush, Paulson, Bernanke, and leaders and members of Congress. Stay tuned, as more bad news is destined to come in the months ahead, unfortunately.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bush-signs-historic-financial-bailout-package/story.aspx?guid=%7B303FAA6C%2D7E73%2D4223%2DADA9%2DFB465F185BE3%7D
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http://www.nypost.com/seven/10022008/news/nationalnews/piggy_pols_in_hog_heaven_with_pork_packe_131770.htm
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http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-whatnext4-2008oct04,0,3011204.story
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http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10057618-38.html?tag=nl.e433
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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7B6FCA5CAB%2DBFB5%2D41ED%2D8FBB%2DB4005F4169DA%7D&siteid=djm_HAMWRSSFirstH
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http://www.alternet.org/story/101523/the_bailout%3A_how_capitalism_killed_democracy/
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andy-stern/so-now-what_b_131660.html
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http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/has-the-bailout-already-failed/

http://roguecolumnist.typepad.com/rogue_columnist/2008/09/to-bail-or-not.html
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http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/10/bailout-redux-real-choice-ahead.html
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http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/02/john-cochrane-on-why-the-bailout-plan-would-be-a-disaster/
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*****

I AM the people—the mob—the crowd—the mass.
Do you know that all the great work of the world is done through me?
I am the workingman, the inventor, the maker of the world’s food and clothes.
I am the audience that witnesses history. The Napoleons come from me and the Lincolns. They die. And then I send forth more Napoleons and Lincolns.
I am the seed ground. I am a prairie that will stand for much plowing. Terrible storms pass over me. I forget. The best of me is sucked out and wasted. I forget. Everything but Death comes to me and makes me work and give up what I have. And I forget.
Sometimes I growl, shake myself and spatter a few red drops for history to remember. Then—I forget.
When I, the People, learn to remember, when I, the People, use the lessons of yesterday and no longer forget who robbed me last year, who played me for a fool—then there will be no speaker in all the world say the name: “The People,” with any fleck of a sneer in his voice or any far-off smile of derision.
The mob—the crowd—the mass—will arrive then.

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