2008 will see 35 United States Senates seats up for election. Twelve of the seats are currently held by Democrats with the other 23 by Republicans. The election of two of the seats are being held as special elections to fill the remaining term: Mississippi, where former Senate leader Trent Lott retired, and Wyoming, where Craig Thomas died tragically and suddenly from leukenia in January 2007. Five of the GOP seats have the incumbent basically retiring: NM, CO, ID, NE, and VA; thus making the elections there for an open seat essentially. Elsewhere, the other 30 seats have an incumbent running for re-election, except for the aforementioned cases in WY and MS where the incumbent was actually appointed to fill the seat by the state's governor until a federal election would be conducted.
-Here are the candidates in each state where a senate seat(s) are up for vote and my outlook.
-ALABAMA: Jeff Sessions, the GOP incumbent and a Son of the South (born Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III) will win re-election easily over Democratic choice Vivian Davis Figures.
-ALASKA: Longtime venerable Ted Stevens (R) is likely to go down to defeat to end his career as Democrat Mark Begich will take advantage of Stevens' deep legal and ethical problems which have resulted in Stevens being under criminal indictment to win this seat for the Dems, a pickup.
-ARKANSAS: Incumbent Democrat Mark Pryor is running unopposed and will win his second term in a state where a Republican opponent should have emerged given the political and philosophical makeup of The Natural State and The Land of Opportunity.
-COLORADO: US Representative Mark Udall will likely edge out former US Representative Bob Schaffer for this open seat being vacated by Wayne Allard, making this another Democratic pickup.
-DELAWARE: Despite the fact that Joe Biden is running for Vice - President, he is also running for a sixth term in the US Senate. He will win easily over a token Republican opponent, unknown Christine O'Donnell. But the real question will be what happens if Biden wins with Obama the White House. Given Delaware has a Democratic governor and will likely continue to after the November 4 election, expect another Democrat, either the current governor, lieutenant governor, or state attorney general, to fill the seat through at least January 3, 2011.
-GEORGIA: There is a chance for an incumbent defeat here, but it remains unlikely. Antagonistic GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss could be upset by Democratic challenger Jim Martin. The race is viewed as close at this point.
-IDAHO: Disgraced GOP incumbent Larry Craig is vacating the seat after recent obscene behaviors. GOP challenger Jim Risch should win, but an upset by Democratic challenger Larry LaRocco is not out of question. Democratic strategists and finances are focusing on the Potato State in hopes of an upset win.
-ILLINOIS: Dick Durbin will coast to an easy win over GOP unknown Steve Sauerberg. Of probable greater interest in the Land of Lincoln is whom will fill the seat if Obama claims the Presidency. Expect another Democrat to be appointed to fill out the last two years of Obama's term as Illinois has a sitting Democratic governor.
-IOWA: Powerful Senate veteran Democrat Tom Harkin will win another term as he routs Christopher Reed, the GOP candidate.
-KANSAS: In what may be the most expected one-sided contest coming up, GOP incumbent Pat Roberts wins in a cakewalk over Democrat Jim Slattery.
-KENTUCKY: Senate Majority Leader and GOP incumbent Addison Mitchell "Mitch" McConnell is favored to win re-election, but with the taint and stench of corruption and scandal amidst him, an upset by Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford is not impossible, but unlikely, unfortunately. McConnell is clearly the most corrupt member of the US Senate.
-LOUISIANA: Despite all her shortcomings and likely links to corruption, Democratic incumbent Mary Landreau will win another term with dissension and dissatisfaction over the GOP response to 2006 Hurricane Katrina giving her more than enough of an edge for re-election.
-MAINE: Republican incumbent Susan Collins is the last of a dying breed, a moderate Northeast Republican. She will probably squeak by though for re-election over Democratic challenger Tom Allen, but her victory is no sure thing.
-MASSACHUSETTS: Democratic incumbent John Kerry easily wins yet another term, but the margin of victory may be less than twenty percentage points over GOP choice Jeff Beatty.
-MICHIGAN: The bespectacled incumbent Democrat Carl Levin, a common sight in Senate television coverage, will win another term as the GOP candidate Jack Hoogendyk is routed easily.
--MINNESOTA: In one of the most anticipated and sure to be followed contests, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman is being challenged by Al Franken, best known as a comedian on Saturday Night Live. Franken's pragmatic and plain speaking candidacy is likely to bring out the Democratic vote, and he probably will squeak by Coleman in a photo finish.
-MISSISSIPPI: In the election for the regularly held seat, longtime powerful GOP incumbent Thad Cochran sweeps to victory over Democratic challenger Erik Fleming.
-MISSISSIPPI: In the election to fill the the remaining years for the seat left by the retiring Trent Lott, look for a Democratic pickup as Ronnie Musgrave narrowly ousts appointee Republican Roger Wicker.
-MONTANA: Democratic incumbent Max Baucus, the epitome of a western conservative Democrat, will coast to an easy win over extremist GOP nominee Bob Kelleher.
-NEBRASKA: Republican choice Mike Johanns will defeat Democratic challenger Scott Kleeb to fill the seat being vacated by Chuck Hegel after two terms and recent disgust with George Bush and his policies.
-NEW HAMPSHIRE: Incumbent Republican John Sununu will probably go down to defeat to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, making this another likely Democratic pickup.
-NEW JERSEY: Frank Lautenberg, the Democratic incumbent, wins another term easily over Republican Dick Zimmer.
-NEW MEXICO: With the retirement of longtime incumbent GOP stalwart Pete Domenici, expect a Democratic pickup with Tom Udall (cousin of Colorado US Senate challenger Mark) to win over GOP nominee Steve Pearce. Both men are currently New Mexico US Representatives.
-NORTH CAROLINA: An Obama victory in the Tarheel State could have coattails as challenger Kay Hagan, the Democrat, has a good chance of upsetting and ousting GOP incumbent Elizabeth Dole, wife of retired longtime Kansas US Senator Robert Dole.
-OKLAHOMA: In what will be the most unfortunate result of the night, right wing extremist and noted global warming naysayer incumbent Republican James Inhofe will win another term easily routing overmatched Democrat Andrew Rice. Pray for a miracle.
-OREGON: Like Susan Collins in Maine, incumbent GOP Gordon Smith is a moderate. He will probably squeak by to get re-elected, but an upset by Democrat challenger Jeff Merkley is more than a possibility making Oregon a good chance for a Democratic pickup.
-RHODE ISLAND: Democratic incumbent Jake Reed takes the seat again with a wide margin of victory over opponent Bob Tingle, a GOP eccentric.
-SOUTH CAROLINA: Important incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham, who should have been the Vice - Presidential running mate of John McCain for this year's presidential contest, will be re-elected easily to another another term over Democratic nominee Bob Conley.
-SOUTH DAKOTA: Incumbent Democrat Tim Johnson, in spite of his recent health issues, will win re-election by a wider margin than when he initially claimed the seat in '02 with a victory over young GOP challenger Joel Dykstra.
-TENNESSEE: Republican incumbent Lamar Alexander will easily win another term over Democratic challenger Bob Tuke.
-TEXAS: Incumbent Republican John Cronyn's re-election is not a sure thing, and the possibility of defeat at the hands of Democratic challenger Rick Noriega is real as this is a close race. A loss by Cronyn would be a deep embarrassment and humiliation to President George Bush.
-VIRGINIA: Longtime Republican incumbent John Warner is retiring, so the contest to fill this open seat is between Democrat Mark Warner (no relation to John) and Republican Jim Gilmore. Mark Warner will win this election making this another Democratic pickup.
-WEST VIRGINIA: In the Battle of the Jays, longtime Democratic incumbent Jay Rockefeller will cruise to victory over GOP challenger Jay Wolfe.
-WYOMING: In the regularly held election for the US Senate seat, incumbent Republican Mike Enzi will win re-election in spite of a lackluster and largely woeful record as a sitting Wyoming senator. Challenger Chris Rothfuss has little chance to pull the upset unfortunately.
-WYOMING: In the special election to fill the remaining four years of the late Senator Craig Thomas' seat, the incumbent GOP appointee John Barrasso will likely hold on to the seat with a victory over Democratic challenger Nick Carter. An upset here would be really sweet.
-Thus at this time, I see the possibility of seven Democratic pickups with seven other seats at least in play to some extent. 50 days until Election Day.
-*****
The Bush Administration was given a thundering and stunning rebuke on Monday afternoon with the defeat of the Bailout Bill in the US House which shocked and surprised nearly everyone globally. As a consequence, the US stock market dived precipitously as all indices were down by 7 % and more. Count on a similar performance Tuesday. The big concern in reality though is the virtual disappearance of credit across the nation, mainly for business. Many businesses use credit to carry them through periods to meet payrolls and other operating expenses while waiting to get paid by buyers and purchasers. There will be cases that will occur as soon as later this week with payrolls not met and bills not paid by a number of businesses, some with household names and a strong brand recognition by consumers. Businesses will shut down or suspend operations, leading to greater unemployment and the further fall of additional economic dominoes. Banks are in serious trouble, as two of the nation's largest banks failed in the last few days with Washington Mutual and Wachovia having to be bought up for virtually nothing by JP Morgan Chase and Citicorp, two larger institutions that themselves may careen towards collapse sooner than later. That makes twelve banks that have disappeared this year. Another jolt will be coming later this week with the release of the September unemployment report, which is likely to show an increase in the official unemployment rate to perhaps in excess of 7 %. With the US House in recess until Thursday due to the Rosh Hashanah Jewish Holiday, no actions or considerations will be made in the next two days.
