Election '08 Electoral Vote Outlook

Only 36 days remain until Americans go to the polls to finish voting in what is the most important election in over a generation. The first debate between the two presidential nominees is now complete, and the consensus is that Obama was the winner by a small margin over McCain. Polling in recent days reflects the debate results as well as how the candidates publicly handled the economic crisis news and controversy over the bailout plan. Obama seems to be gaining support at this time. As expected, the Palin bump has now ended as the initial exuberance and hysteria over her presence on the GOP ticket has strongly waned with the legitimate concerns over her experience, personal matters, and policy philosophies. Estimates of potential electoral votes tallies now show Obama with around 325 to around 213 for McCain. Key battleground states have moved more into Obama's camp in at least small ways in the last few days. There are ten key states that are in contention according to analysts: NV, NM, MI, OH, PA, VA, NC, FL, CO, and IN. All but NC are now seen as being more likely to be states that will give a majority vote to Obama. Should this trend continue, it is possible to envision other states tipping over to Obama, such as NC, ND, MT, MO, and perhaps even GA and LA. McCain appears to firmly be in the lead in some of the Rockies (ID, UT, WY, AZ); the High and Southern Plains (SD, NE, KS, OK, TX) and most of Dixie (AR, KY, WV, TN, SC, AL, MS) as well as Palin's state of AK. Obama appears to have a firm or growing lead in the far West (HI, CA, OR, WA); growing support in the Southern Rockies (NV, NM, CO); a firm or growing grip on the upper Midwest and Great Lakes (MN, WI, IA, IL, IN, MI, OH) and a lock on the Northeast (VA, MD, DC, DE, PA, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME). I would expect a small bounce back towards McCain during October but it will short lived. History shows convincingly the candidate with the level of support Obama has at this time (late September) always wins and usually increases his margin. My estimate at this time is for an Obama win with over 325 electoral votes with the possibility of surpassing 350. Instead of tightening, this race appears to be loosening in the early weeks of Autumn.
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http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
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