The 2008 General Elections are now but a little more than a week away. Trends that have been in place since mid - September continue as all polling and analysis show a clear and convincing Barack Obama victory over John McCain next Tuesday night. The Electoral College will likely go to Obama by a better than 2 - 1 margin, and a 3-1 margin with an excess of 400 electoral votes for Obama is now more than a possibility.-
It now is certain all nineteen states (and the District of Columbia) that were in the John Kerry column in 2004 will even more strongly support Senator Obama. But quite a few states that supported George Bush in '04 will be switching to Obama. These states that are now viewed as switching are VA, NC, FL, OH, IA, MO, CO, NM, and NV. Other states that may switch to Democratic this election include IN, WV, GA, MS, AR, MT, ND, and SD. In addition, states like TX, LA, and even Senator McCain's home state of AZ are not totally out of the question of switching over to the Democrat side. McCain will win the states of ID, UT, WY, NE, KS, OK, AL, SC, TN, and KY without question. Worst case scenario for McCain would be an electoral landslide defeat by 469 - 69, but it is strongly likely he will still receive over 100 electoral votes.
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There still remains scenarios where McCain does pull the upset with the ugly specter of racism that may reveal itself when people get down to the final moment and have to make a decision. If enough of these disgusting voters emerge in the key states of NV, CO, IN, OH, MO, VA, NC, and FL to keep these states in the red for Republicans, McCain would squeak out a narrow victory by a 274 - 264 margin. Lose even one of those states and the victory goes to Obama.
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The US Senate races are also strongly trending Democratic. It strongly appears to analysts the Democrats will pick up a minimum of eight seats (AK. OR, CO, NM, NH, VA, NC, and MN) for a vastly expanded 59 - 41 margin which includes the two independents in VT and CT that caucus with the Democrats. Contests for Senate seats are also strongly in play in four other states (MS, GA, KY, and TX), but the GOP incumbent is likely to retain the seat in each case. And upsets, although strongly improbable, are still possible in ME and NE. But the overall direction is strongly Democratic across the nation and history shows once unimaginable and still improbable upsets are likely to occur in at least a few of these six states. In 1980, in a similar sea change election like this one is going to be, twelve Democratic incumbents were ousted from the US Senate. 1920, 1932, and 1948 were similar elections. A Senate with 60 - 62 Democrats would not be surprising.
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The US House appears to be on track for a gain of 25 seats for the Democrats with estimates ranging from the low 20s on the bottom side to perhaps as many as 33 seats on the top end of analysis. Once again, history shows upsets will happen as the trends are working strongly against Republicans this election; a gain for the Democrats that exceeds 35 and even nears 40 would not be a shock. In 1980 the GOP picked up 34 seats in the House. 1904, 1912, 1920, 1932, 1948, and 1964 were also elections with long presidential coattails. A US House of Representatives that is seated in 2009 that nears a 2 - 1 margin for Democrats is a distinct possibility.
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There will be eleven states that are holding elections for a governor next Tuesday. Six of the seats are currently held by Democrats and five by Republicans. The Republicans figure to hold on to seats in ND, UT, VT, and IN. Democrats are viewed as keeping seats in WA, NC, DE, MT, NH, and WV. There looks to be a switch in MO with the retirement of Republican Matt Blunt to a Democrat with Jay Nixon, the former Missouri Attorney General, viewed as likely to win the guberanatorial race in The Show Me State. Upsets are possible for Democrats in VT and IN, but unlikely. The GOP is hoping for upsets in WA and NC.
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There are many ballot issues on a number of states across the nation in this election. Some are of great controversy, such as the homosexual marriage issues in California, Florida, and Arizona; and labor and worker issues in Colorado. Setting limitations on abortion are on the ballot in CA, CO, and SD. Anti-affirmative action measures are on ballots in CO and NE; immigration questions are up for consideration in MO, KS, and OR; and ballot choices concerning campaign finance reform are to be made in AR, CO, OR, and SD. A database of all ballot measures can be found here.
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There are a large number of state legislative seats up for election, as there are 7.382 state legislators across the US, although many will not be up for election at this time. Local elections on the county, local, and municipal level are also being held, although they are not as numerous during a federal election. Included in these elections will be various officials in executive, legislative, judicial, and administrative positions.
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Eight days until Election Day. Many citizens have already voted using absentee ballots and early voter options, including this writer. We should have many results starting in about 210 hours from the time this posted is being completed (1:15am MDT, Monday 27 October).
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