Here is what this writer will be looking at as each hour goes by in the late afternoon and evening on Tuesday 4 November, Election Day 2008. The big moments will happen midway in the evening, likely after 8pm, but intriguing results could be announced in opening few hours that may keep the evening suspenseful for quite some time and then some.-
The first polls close at 4pm MST (6pm EST) in Kentucky and Indiana. No projections will be made at this point since polls are still open in the portions of the states that are in the Central Time Zone. But expect CNN and other media to have some very interesting and revealing exit poll data on the moods, feelings, and sentiments of voters in a wide variety of demographic groups. We will also get a sense of what turnout is like in many states, particularly the key battleground states for the Presidency and Senate.
-The first complete poll closures occur at 5pm MST (7pm EST) in seven states: FL, GA, SC, VT, VA, and the remainder of IN and KY. Expect the first projections to come out in SC and KY giving those states to McCain, and in VT and VA for Obama. Some largely uncontested Senate races will also have projections made for them. But in the battleground states of FL, GA, and IN, the early results will be much to close for projections to be made this early in the evening.
-At 5:30 pm MST polls close in OH and WV. We probably will not see projections from these two states either so early in the evening. This is the time to place the order for the pizza and pop delivery.
-At 6pm MST (8pm EST) fifteen states close their polls completely with four other states closing the eastern portion of their polls. Most of these states are in the Northeast and the remainder of the South with a few in the Midwest. Expect a rapid fire of projections quickly from this selection of states with most (CT, DE, DC, ME, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, PA, and IL being declared as states in the Obama column and the much of the remainder (TN, AL, TX, and OK) for McCain. Projections on the other four (FL, MO, MS, and SD) will not be made so soon after the polls close in each of those states due to the very tight results early on. We will probably see a number of Senate races and noteworthy House races projected and declared in some of these 19 states shortly after the poll closings.
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At 6:30 two states will be through with voting: AR and NC. Both states figure to have close results in the early going so no projections will be made immediately. As this 6:00 hour goes on we will probably get projections for the first time from some of the battleground states like VA, IN, OH, MS, and WV. A few more Senate races may also get projected.
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As the hour reaches 7pm MST (9pm EST), ten states and portions of four others will close up the voting polls. Most of these states are in the Midwest and Mountain states regions. Once again, a number of these states will be quickly projected and cause the electoral college numbers to jump quickly. We may also see some additional projections from states that had earlier oll closures such as FL and NC. By the time we reach this hour, we will know for certain if an upset by McCain is still possible or completely dead. What is determined to have happened will be of the most critical importance in this hour with the number of states done with voting in the majority.
It will also be of interest to see the results being tabulated in the eight state Mountain region as polls will have closed in parts of the region at this time.
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8pm MST (10pm EST) figures to be the hour if and when Obama goes over the top or at least gets very close to victory with poll closures in five states and three partial closures. The map of change in the Senate may also start to come into a rough form.
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If Obama does not go over the 27o number at 8pm, he will unquestionably do so at 9pm MST (11pm EST) with the closure of polls in certain supporting Obama states like CA, WA, OR, and HI. By this point only AK will still have citizens voting at the polls. By this time we will also have a better idea if this election can be described as an Obama landslide or just a victory as key battleground states in the East, Midwest, and South will likely to have been projected after a few hours past their poll closings. We also may see key contested US Senate races better understood and perhaps further projected. The make up of the US House will also come into a rough form with still many races to be decided and votes counted across the nation. Results from the Mountain Time Zone should be largely complete except perhaps on some key ballot issues in such states as CO.
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At 10pm (Midnight EST) Alaska is the last state to start counting votes and McCain should win there by a better than 4-3 margin. The full scope of the election, its results, and what it will all mean should be be starting to become quite apparent by this point. We may also know whether the Democrats will have gotten to sixty in the Senate and have an idea how many seats the GOP will lose in the House. Expect a speech by Obama at some point around this hour as well. A McCain concession speech is also likely to happen at some point around this time, and before Obama makes his speech if things hold to form as being currently predicted.
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By Midnight MST (2am EST) most results should be in, but expect about one to two dozen results to still be up in the air from a wide variety of places across the nation, and some of them may be rather quite surprising and unexpected.
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For those still with us at this point, it is probably best to call it a night if one has an early morning work obligation and check back during the day on Wednesday to find out the results that were still undecided. It would not be unusual to see several races in the House still up in the air 24 hours after the polls have closed in the state where the race was contested.
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