Mountain Time Zone Perspective Blog Election Predictions

The time is almost here, so here is this writer's guesses and predictions on what will happen in the General Election on Tuesday 4 November across the US.

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PRESIDENT OF THE US

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I am predicting Obama to win easily. He will amass around 390 electoral votes and carry most every state he is seen as being competitive in, which I believe to total 30 (plus DC) in all. McCain will get around 148 electoral votes and carry 20 states (AK; AZ; UT; ID; WY; MT; ND; SD: NE; KS; OK; TX; LA; AR; MS; AL, TN, KY, SC, and WV). The race will largely be decided by 7pm MST as key battleground states like IN, NC, VA, OH, MO, and PA go for Obama. It would not surprise me to see Obama accumulate in excess of 425 electoral votes.

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US SENATE

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I am predicting the Democrats get to 60 as their number in the Senate if one includes Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman as close allies of the Democrats in the Senate Caucus. The Democrats will pick up seats in AK; OR; CO; NM; MN; VA; NC; and NH. They will also pick up a seat in at least one of these four states: GA; KY; MS; and TX, with GA the most likely one. The GOP will hold their seats in WY (2); ID; NE; KS; OK; AL; MS (1); and TN. A Senate with 60 or 61 pure Democrats is not an impossibility but unlikely in my opinion.

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US HOUSE

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It is difficult to get a handle on what firmly will happen, but based on what I am reading and hearing, I predict the Democrats pick up a minimum of 23 House seats, with 30 not out of the question. I think it is all but impossible for any gains above that level unless a lot of observers are really wrong. At least four or five seats in the eight state Mountain States region will turnover to the Democrats from Republicans.

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GOVERNORS

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I predict one or two upsets will take place, perhaps in MO, IN, VT, NC, or WA. There are only 11 seats up for election on Tuesday which makes any number of upsets largely unlikely.

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