30 January 2009

Three More Banks Go Belly Up

Friday 30 January '09 saw the closure of three more banks - MagnetBank out of Salt Lake City, UT; Suburban Federal Savings Bank out of Crofton, MD (between DC and Annapolis near Bowie); and Ocala National Bank out of Ocala, FL - which doubles the total of banks closed in '09 already and raises the total to 31 in the last six months. With the collapse in its infancy still, the numbers of banks that will close will probably near 200 to 350 by 2011 when all is said and done.

A locally owned bank based out of Greeley CO narrowed averted a similar fate when a capital call from its investors was ordered by federal banking regulators.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Regulators-close-three-more-banks/story.aspx?guid={882CF913-54E4-4C79-AABC-C5B1F4FD9745}

http://www.ksl.com/index.php?nid=153&sid=4867298

http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_11592889

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"The Perfect Storm"

It all gets down to two things: rising housing prices in the last two decades and stagnant or falling wages for an even longer period of time dating back to the 1970s. Briefly, ( and far from explainly completely) Federal economic policy dictated much of this, under heavy pressure from corporations and the wealthy elite who used lobbyists to basically buy Congress to implement policy which strongly favored and benefited them at the expense of an already declining middle class and the poor. The result was a staggering ratio of income inequality which resulted in a vast misuse and abuse of credit to maintain or establish a standard of living. A house of cards was built and it had to fall, which is what started in mid to late 2006 in parts of the nation and parts of the economy, and now is afflicting the economy and citizens most everywhere. Until home values and housing prices do not return to their historical norms of a 3:1 ration roughly with per capita median incomes, a recovery will not begin and grow. And based on where the economy and the nation is now, it does not look as if that will happen until 2011 or 2012 with the vast numbers of unemployed and underemployed making up the nation and only increasingly so.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/01/29/economic.crisis.explainer/index.html?eref=rss_topstories

http://www.villagevoice.com/2009-01-28/news/what-cooked-the-world-s-economy/

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4th Quarter 2008 Ugly

The statistical findings of how the economy performed in the final quarter of last year have been released and the preliminary numbers are grotesque. The GDP declined by 3.8 %, a number that is sure to be adjusted to a worse extent in the coming months as the economic findings are further finalized. The actual number is closer to 5 %, but buildups of inventories overstated the strength of the economy. The downturn this last quarter is the worst since the first quarter of 1982 when a GDP decline of 6.4 %. The worst quarterly decline since measuring commenced was 10.4 % in the first quarter of 1958.

The staggering thought is how bad the numbers will be in the current quarter. Early estimates on how bad the decline in the GDP will be in this current quarter range from over 6 % to as much as 10 to 11 %. January's record worst decline across the boards in all stock indices are an overwhelming leading indicator of just that.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2008688885_apeconomy.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/The-worst-still-ahead/story.aspx?guid={0A24EE42-6423-4626-BC1D-668514EE0347}

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-fourth-quarter-GDP-contracts/story.aspx?guid={913CEBDA-AE34-48A8-84CC-80ECCBA1B6E6}

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123331631097133089.html

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28 January 2009

The Upcoming La Nina Late Winter and Early Spring

...From the Sci Guy blog in the Houston Chronicle by Eric Berger in Wednesday 28 '09 online edition...

La Nina is Here -- What it Means for the United States

It may not quite be official, but La Niña, a natural cooling of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, has arrived. Here are the full details from NOAA (.pdf file).

As La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least early spring we can make some predictions about what winter conditions will be like in Texas this year.

The graphic below shows the average temperature anomaly from November through March when La Niña persists in the Pacific Ocean.

cdtemp.l.usa.a.w.gif
NOAA

As we can see, the average temperature is about 1 degree warmer for southeast Texas. Perhaps more interesting is La Niña's effect on precipitation, especially as we're already having such a dry winter.

cdprcp.l.usa.a.w.gif
NOAA

Here we can expect to be about 5 inches below our normal rainfall totals, and we seem to be on course for that. We were 1.27 inches below normal rainfall in November, 2.01 inches below in December, and we're already 2.84 inches below normal this month.

Climatologically speaking, then, we shouldn't expect relief to come any time soon.

Another big question is how long we might expect La Niña to persist, and if it will continue into hurricane season beginning June 1. Historically La Niña conditions have acted to lower wind shear values, allowing storms a greater opportunity to develop and intensify. And it's doubly bad for the Gulf of Mexico.

It's impossible to forecast conditions out that far, but scientists do have computers to make such projections. Fortunately a majority of the models project that La Niña conditions will wane by early summer.

ensomodelforecasts09.jpg
NOAA

I certainly hope that is the case.

*

All in all it looks like a drier and warmer repertoire for most of the southern and western US.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2009/01/la_nina_is_here.html

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27 January 2009

Latest State by State Unemployment Rates

These numbers have to be taken as being less than accurate, as the "official" governments numbers ignore those citizens who have been unemployed long term, giving up looking for work, working parttime because they cannot get fulltime work, and those who are working in jobs that are beneath their intelligence and education. Basically one can add 1/3 to 1/2 to get a more accurate number for each state, and even then, it might still be an underrepresentation.

..........................NOV...DEC
Alabama
6.0
6.7
Alaska
7.2
7.5
Arizona
6.3
6.9
Arkansas
5.7
6.2
California
8.4
9.3
Colorado
5.8
6.1
Connecticut
6.6
7.1
Delaware
5.6
6.2
District of Columbia
8.0
8.8
Florida
7.4
8.1
Georgia
7.4
8.1
Hawaii
5.0
5.5
Idaho
5.7
6.4
Illinois
7.3
7.6
Indiana
7.1
8.2
Iowa
4.3
4.6
Kansas
4.9
5.2
Kentucky
7.0
7.8
Louisiana
5.3
5.9
Maine
6.3
7.0
Maryland
5.3
5.8
Massachusetts
5.9
6.9
Michigan
9.6
10.6
Minnesota
6.4
6.9
Mississippi
7.2
8.0
Missouri
6.8
7.3
Montana
4.9
5.4
Nebraska
3.7
4.0
Nevada
8.1
9.1
New Hampshire
4.3
4.6
New Jersey
6.1
7.1
New Mexico
4.3
4.9
New York
6.0
7.0
North Carolina
7.8
8.7
North Dakota
3.3
3.5
Ohio
7.3
7.8
Oklahoma
4.7
4.9
Oregon
8.0
9.0
Pennsylvania
6.2
6.7
Rhode Island
9.3
10.0
South Carolina
8.4
9.5
South Dakota
3.4
3.9
Tennessee
7.0
7.9
Texas
5.7
6.0
Utah
3.7
4.3
Vermont
5.7
6.4
Virginia
4.8
5.4
Washington
6.3
7.1
West Virginia
4.6
4.9
Wisconsin
5.6
6.2
Wyoming
3.2
3.4
USA
6.8
7.2

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